Events

Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies - Workshop 1

Thursday 19 August 2010

11.00am to 5.30pm

This is a `working’ workshop focusing on introducing three features into core DSGE models: CES production, non-zero steady state inflation and one-step estimation of the detrending method and the model. The third paper proposes a new way of formulating Taylor rules in DSGE models, so perhaps this too should also be part of the new ‘workhorse model’.

Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies - Workshop 2

Wednesday 22 September 2010

11.00am to 5.30pm

Workshop 2 will be held on September 22nd , 2010, University of Surrey, Department of Economics, Room 4, starting with coffee at 11.00. This is intended as a planning meeting for the co-investigators of the ESRC Project: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules with Labour Market and Financial Friction

Economics Seminar: Entry in Thin Markets

Wednesday 3 November 2010

16:00 to 17:15
Dr Alex Dickson (University of Strathclyde)

Economics Seminar: Internal Rationality, Imperfect Market Knowledge and Asset Price

Wednesday 17 November 2010

16:00 to 17:00
Prof Albert Marcet (London School of Economics)

Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies - Workshop 3

Wednesday 17 November 2010

11:00
Prof. Peter MacAdam, Prof. Paul Levine, Prof. Simon Wren-Lewis

Economics Seminar: Parental Consent for Contraception and Teenage Pregnancy in Texas

Wednesday 24 November 2010

16:00 to 17:00
Prof. David Paton ((University of Nottingham, Business School))

Economics UCAS Day

Wednesday 1 December 2010

Economics Seminar: Composite Prospect Theory

Wednesday 8 December 2010

16:00 to 17:00
Dr Ali Al–Nowaihi (University of Leicester)

Economics Seminar: Model Productivity Change with a Short Run Cost Function

Wednesday 12 January 2011

16:00 to 17:00
Thomas Weyman Jones (Loughborough  University)

Thomas Weyman Jones (Loughborough  University)

"Model Productivity Change with a Short Run Cost Function"

Abstract

This paper is in three parts. Part 1 reviews the theory of modelling an industry’s technology by estimating the short run cost functions of firms and addresses an issue that arose at the 2010 EMEE conference at the University of Surrey by comparing strong and weak disposability properties of the input requirements set (related to the uneconomic region of the production function). A decomposition of productivity change is derived from this. Part 2 reviews methods for estimating efficiency and productivity in panel data samples and compares the consistency of results across different econometric specifications. Part 3 applies the ideas of parts 1 and 2 to a banking system of an economy with a special focus on the period following a financial crisis. We use our analytical framework to model the re-capitalization process as a requirement to hold levels of a fixed input, i.e. equity, above the long run equilibrium level, and we use a panel data set of banks in Turkey from after the financial upheaval period to analyse these ideas.

Economics SEEC Seminar: Global Oil Prices and their Impact on Chinese Energy and Resource Related Stock Values

Monday 17 January 2011

14:00 to 17:30
David Broadstock (Research Institute of Economics and Management (China))

Economics Seminar: Crime and Immigration: Evidence from Large Immigrant Waves

Wednesday 19 January 2011

16:00 to 17:00
Dr Brian Bell (London School of Economics)

Economics Seminar: Probabilistic Forecasts of Volatility and its Risk Premia

Monday 7 February 2011

14:00 to 15:00
Dr Gael Martin (Monash University)

Dr Gael Martin (Monash University)

"Probabilistic Forecasts of Volatility and its Risk Premia" (with W. Maneesoonthorn, C. S. Forbes and S. Grose)

Malthus Dinner

Friday 11 February 2011

Sean O’Grady (Economics Editor for The Independent).

The Malthus Dinner, for all students and staff in the Department of Economics, will be held on Friday 11 February 2011 at the Holiday Inn, Guildford. The guest speaker for the evening will be Sean O'Grady (Economics Editor of The Independent). The dress code is formal and the evening starts at 7.00pm. 

The following ticket prices include a three course dinner with wine, a DJ til midnight at the Holiday Inn, and entry into Rubix (on campus) after midnight: £29 for students and staff of the Department of Economics at Surrey, and £32 for friends and partners of students and staff of the Department of Economics

Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies - Workshop 4

Wednesday 16 February 2011

11:00
Dr. Nicoletta Batini, Prof. Joe Pearlman, Dr. Filippo Ferroni

Economics Seminar: Transmission Lags and Optimal Monetary Policy

Wednesday 23 February 2011

16:00 to 17:00
Dr Alessandro Flamini (University of Sheffield)

Dr Alessandro Flamini (University of Sheffield)

"Transmission Lags and Optimal Monetary Policy"

Abstract

Real world monetary policy features long and variable lags in the transmission of the policy to the economy. Most of the policy models, however, abstracts from policy lags. This paper presents a New-Keynesian model where transmission lags are determined by a two-sector supply side of the economy. The paper shows that optimal monetary policy depends crucially on the features of the transmission lag.

Economics Seminar: Employee Involvement, Technology and Evolution in Job Skills: A Task-Based Analysis

Wednesday 2 March 2011

16:00
Prof Francis Green (Institute of Education)

SEEC (Economics)/Energy Network Seminar: The Politics of Energy

Thursday 3 March 2011

17:00 to 18:30
Lord Howell of Guildford (Minister of State at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office)

Lord Howell of Guildford (Minister of State at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office)

SEEC (Economics) Seminar: Making Sense of the Oil Market

Tuesday 8 March 2011

13:00
Mr. Richard De Caux (BP Economics Team)

Mr. Richard De Caux (BP Economics Team)

"Making Sense of the Oil Market"

The talk will be a run through of how we put our short term supply and demand balance together and use this to assess the market

SEEC (Economics) Seminar: Schlumberger Oil and Gas Seminar

Friday 18 March 2011

16:00 to 18:00
Mr. Firas Zeineddine

Mr. Firas Zeineddine

"Are We Running Out of Oil? The Power of Technology"

Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies - Workshop 5

Wednesday 23 March 2011

11:00
Dr. Rudrani Bhattachrya, Dr. Ila Patnaik

Economics Seminar: Efficiency of the OLS Estimator in the Vicinity of a Spatial Unit Root

Wednesday 30 March 2011

16:00 to 17:00
Dr Federico Martellosio (University of Reading)

Economics Seminar: Do Oil Windfalls Improve Living Standards? Evidence from Brazil

Wednesday 6 April 2011

16:00 to 17:00
Dr Guy Michaels (London School of Economics)

Economics Seminar: Structural Change and Slow-Motion Recoveries

Thursday 14 April 2011

16:30 to 17:30
Alessio Moro (University of Cagliari)

Alessio Moro (University of Cagliari)

"Structural Change and Slow-Motion Recoveries" (with Vasco M. Carvalho)

Abstract

We explore the hypothesis that the appearance of slow-motion recoveries in the US economy since 1991 - i.e. slow growth phases following the end of recent recessions - can be attributed to the process of structural change between manufacturing and services. We start by providing novel evidence that shows
that strong bouncebacks from recessions are strongly evident in manufacturing but not in the services sector. We then develop a formal two-sector model of structural change, where technology shocks to the two different production technologies - goods manufacturing and services - induce different GDP growth patterns
following a recession. We show that in this framework, structural change towards services can endogenously generate a vanishing hump-shaped pattern of GDP growth rates over the cycle.

Economics Seminar: Testing for co-jumps with high frequency financial data: an approach based on first-high-low-last prices

Wednesday 11 May 2011

16:00
Prof Heather Anderson (Monash University)

Professor Heather Anderson (Monash University)

"Testing for co-jumps with high frequency financial data: an approach based on first-high-low-last prices"

Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach to test for common intraday jumps in a panel of high frequency financial data. We utilize intraday first-high-low-last values of asset prices to construct a novel estimator for the cross-variance structure of a large panel of high frequency financial data, and then employ this estimator to provide a first-high-low-last price based test statistic to determine if this covariance is partly attributable to common large discrete price movements (co-jumps). We study the finite sample behaviour of our first-high-low-last price based test using Monte Carlo simulation, and find that it is more powerful than the existing return-based co-jump test (see Bollersvlev et al (2008)) for covariance measured at the same sampling frequency. When applied to a panel of high frequency data from the Chinese mainland stock market, our first-high-low-last price based test identifies more common jumps than the return based test in this emerging market.

Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies - Workshop 6

Thursday 12 May 2011

Prof. Joe Pearlman, Prof. Paul Levine

Workshop 6 will be held on May 12th, University of Surrey, Department of Economics, Room 40, starting with coffee at 10.30.  Paul Levine, Joe Pearlman and Bo Yang will be presenting our new software on optimal policy design now incorporated into Dynare. We will also review progress on the modules for our Dynare course.

Economics Seminar: Time-consistent fiscal policy under heterogeneity: Conflicting or Common interest?

Wednesday 18 May 2011

16:00 to 17:00
Prof Apostolis Philippopoulos (University of Glasgow)

Prof Apostolis Philippopoulos (University of Glasgow)

"Time-consistent fiscal policy under heterogeneity: Conflicting or Common interest?" (with , J. Malley, A.Philippopoulos)

Abstract

We study the aggregate and distributional implications of Markov-perfect tax-spending policy in a neoclassical growth model with capitalists and workers. Following Krusell et al. (2002) and Klein et al. (2008), we focus on the steady-state of Markov-perfect equilibria working with differentiable Generalized-Euler Equations (GEE) and using their numerical perturbation algorithm for the computation of the steady-state. We answer the following questions: What is the time-consistent optimal mix of capital and labour taxes and the associated optimal provision of public goods?  Does the lack of commitment hurt all agents in the economy? And, if yes, are there any substitutes for commitment?  Finally, can there be changes in the policy design that are Pareto improving? Or, is it unavoidable to have a conflict of interests between agents under time-consistent policy, in contrast to Ramsey policy?

Economics Seminar: Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions

Wednesday 15 June 2011

16:00
George Athanasopoulos

George Athanasopoulos  (Monash University) 

“Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions"

Abstract

We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We consider model selection criteria which have data-dependent penalties for a lack of parsimony, as well as the traditional ones. We suggest a new procedure which is a hybrid of traditional criteria and criteria with data-dependant penalties. In order to compute the fit of each model, we propose an iterative procedure to compute the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of a VAR model with short-run and long-run restrictions. Our Monte Carlo simulations measure the improvements in forecasting accuracy that can arise from the joint determination of lag-length and rank, relative to the commonly used procedure of selecting the lag-length only and then testing for cointegration.

Economics: Econometrics Workshop

Wednesday 14 September 2011

15.00 to 16.30

Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies - Workshop 7

Wednesday 12 October 2011

10.30 to 16.30
Prof. Fabio Canova

Economics Seminar: Bridging Cyclical DSGE Models and the Raw Data

Wednesday 12 October 2011

15.00 to 16.00
Fabio Canova (Pompeu fabra University)

Economics seminar: Fiscal policy and lending relationships

Wednesday 19 October 2011

16:00 to 17:00
Dr. Giovanni Melina

Dr. Giovanni Melina (Surrey and Birkbeck)

"Fiscal policy and lending relationships" (with Stefania Villa)

Abstract

This paper studies how fiscal policy affects credit market conditions. First, it conducts a FAVAR analysis showing that the credit spread responds negatively to an expansionary government spending shock, while consumption, investment, and lending increase. Second, it illustrates that these results are not mimicked by a DSGE model where the credit spread is endogenized via the inclusion of a banking sector exploiting lending relationships. Third, it demonstrates that introducing deep habits in private and government consumption makes the model able to replicate empirics. Sensitivity checks and extensions show that core results hold for a number of model calibrations and specifications. The presence of banks exploiting lending relationships generates a financial accelerator effect in the transmission of fiscal shocks.

Economics seminar: On the mechanism of innovation

Wednesday 26 October 2011

16:00 to 17:00
Dr. Nicole Tabasso (Surrey)

Dr. Nicole Tabasso (Surrey)

"On the mechanism of innovation" (with Christian Ghiglino)

Abstract

The present paper presents a model of incremental innovation in technology, in which new ideas rest on previous ones. The model describes an optimal algorithm for innovation, which depicts a stylised innovation process. The existence of similar innovation rules in practise is investigated with patent data. In our dataset, we find evidence of pairs of patents that can be deemed \similar" to each other, i.e., we find patent pairs that share on average roughly 30-40% of their citations with each other. Preliminary results indicate that this interconnectedness of patents is increasing in the number of patents granted in the same technological area (approximated by a 3-digit class). It also appears that patents with a high degree of similarity are cited, on average, just as much as patents that share barely any or none of their citations with another patent. To the extent that the number of citations received is indicative of patent quality, this result implies that incremental innovation can be as profitable as radical innovation. In the future, we wish to complement our results from the patent data with laboratory experiments to investigate further how individuals choose to innovate if presented with a given good/process.

Economics Seminar: Selection Effects with Heterogeneous Firms

Wednesday 2 November 2011

16:00 to 17:00
Dr. Monica Mrazova (Surrey)

Prof. Peter Neary (Oxford)

"Selection Effects with Heterogeneous Firms" (with Monika Mrazova)

Abstract

We provide a general characterization of which firms will select alternative ways of serving a market. If and only if firms' maximum profits are supermodular in production and market-access costs, more efficient firms will engage in the activity with lower market-access costs whereas less efficient ones will not. Our result applies in a range of models and under a variety of assumptions about market structure. We show that supermodularity holds in many cases but not in all. Exceptions include FDI (both horizontal and vertical) with non-CES preferences, fixed costs that vary with access mode, and R&D with threshold effects.

Economics Seminar: A Kernel Based Bootstrap Method for Dependent Processes

Wednesday 9 November 2011

16:00 to 17:30
Paulo Parente (Exeter)

Partially Honest Nash Implementation: Characterisation Results

Wednesday 16 November 2011

16:00 to 17:00
Dr. Michele Lombardi

Economics Seminar: Financial Crises, Exchange Rates and Macro-prudential Policies

Wednesday 23 November 2011

16:00 to 17:00
Luca Fornaro

Economics: UCAS Days

Wednesday 30 November 2011

13:00 to 16:45
Professor Robert Witt (Head of the School), Mr John Wall (Professional Placement Tutor), Dr Jo Lindely (Course Director)

UCAS Days: 30th November 2011 and 8th February 2012

During the day you will have the opportunity to learn more about the University, the School of Economics as well as your chosen course. You will also have the opportunity to meet with academic staff and current students from the School of Economics and raise any questions you might have. If you are interested in attending this event, please contact the Undergraduate Administrator at C.Berreur@surrey.ac.uk to book a place.

Campus Map

Economics Seminar: Minimum Wages in the UK, and the Relative Wages and Productivity of Young Workers

Wednesday 7 December 2011

16:00 to 17:00
Prof. Andy Dickerson

Prof. Andy Dickerson (Sheffield) will present

"Minimum Wages in the UK, and the Relative Wages and Productivity of Young Workers" (with Steven McIntosh)
 

Abstract

This paper utilises sectoral level data for the UK for 1996-2007 in order to estimate age-earnings and age-productivity profiles. The aim of the paper is to investigate how these profiles have changed following the introduction and subsequent uprating of the National Minimum Wage in the UK.  The focus is on young workers in particular whose relative wages may have been more affected by the minimum wage, given that younger people are, in general, lower paid.  Changes in their age-earnings profile could in turn open up or exacerbate gaps between relative wages and relative productivity levels, as compared to older workers.  The results, however, reveal that the UK National Minimum Wage has not altered the slope of the age-earnings profile, whilst productivity differences between young and old workers have, if anything, contracted over the sample period.

Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies - Workshop 8

Tuesday 13 December 2011

10:30 to 17:00
Dr. Antonio Mele, Prof. Peter McAdam, Prof. Galo Nuño

CIMS Workshop 8 will be held on December 13th, University of Surrey, School of Economics, Room 40AD00, starting with coffee at 10.30am.  

Economics Seminar: Inference in Spatial Autoregressive Models

Thursday 19 January 2012

11:00 to 12:30
Prof. Grant Hillier

Prof. Grant Hillier (University of Southampton)

"Inference in Spatial Autoregressive Models"

Economics Seminar: Early, late or never? When does parental education impact child outcomes?

Wednesday 1 February 2012

16:00 to 17:30
Dr. Matt Dickson

Dr. Matt Dickson (UCD)

"Early, late or never? When does parental education impact child outcomes?" (with Paul Gregg.)

Economics: UCAS Day

Wednesday 8 February 2012

Professor Robert Witt (Head of the School), Mr John Wall (Professional Placement Tutor), Dr Jo Lindely (Course Director)

UCAS Day: 8th February 2012

During the day you will have the opportunity to learn more about the University, the School of Economics as well as your chosen course. You will also have the opportunity to meet with academic staff and current students from the School of Economics and raise any questions you might have. If you are interested in attending this event, please contact the Undergraduate Administrator at C.Berreur@surrey.ac.uk to book a place.

Campus Map

Economics Seminar: Institutions and Export Dynamics

Wednesday 15 February 2012

16:00 to 17:30
Dr. Emanuel Ornelas

Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies - Workshop 9

Thursday 8 March 2012

10:30 to 17:00
Dr. Francesco Zanetti

CIMS Workshop 9 will be held in March 8th, University of Surrey, School of Economics, Room 40AD00, starting with coffee at 10.30am.  

Economics Seminar: Financial Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuation

Thursday 8 March 2012

10.30 to 17.00
Dr. Francesco Zanetti

Dr. Francesco Zanetti (Bank of England)

"Financial Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuation"

Economics Seminar: Structural VAR and Rare Events

Wednesday 18 April 2012

11:30 to 13:00
Dr. Filippo Ferroni

Dr. Filippo Ferroni (Banque de France)

"Structural VAR and rare events"

Economics Seminar: Rational Habits and Gasoline Demand

Wednesday 18 April 2012

15:00 to 16:30
Rebecca Scott

Rebecca Scott (Berkeley)

“Rational Habits and Gasoline Demand”

CIMS Conference 2012

Friday 14 September 2012

Michel Juillard and Tommaso Monacelli

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules with Labour Market and Financial Frictions

Economics Seminar: Media Influence and Political Power: Evidence from the Rise of Berlusconi

Wednesday 3 October 2012

16:00 to 16:30
Dr. Andrea Tesei

Dr Andrea Tesei (Queen Mary)

"Media Influence and Political Power: Evidence from the Rise of Berlusconi" (with R. Durante (PSE) and P. Pinotti (Bocconi))

Media Influence and Political Power

Wednesday 3 October 2012

16.00
Andrea Tesei (Queen Mary, University of London)

The School of Economics would like to welcome Andrea Tesei to speak.

Threshold Estimation from a Generated Auxiliary Regression

Wednesday 10 October 2012

16.00 to 17:30
Daniele Massacci (University of Surrey and EIEF)

Dr. Daniele Massacci (University of Surrey and EIEF)

"Threshold Estimation from Generated Auxiliary Regression: With an Application to U.S. Stock Return".

Economics Seminar: Performance Pay and Changes in U.S. Labor Market Dynamics

Wednesday 24 October 2012

16:00 to 17:30
Prof Francesco Nucci

Professor Francesco Nucci (Sapienza University of Rome)

"Performance Pay and Changes in U.S. Labour Market Dynamics"

Economics Seminar: Policy Persuasion and Electoral Competition

Wednesday 31 October 2012

12.00
Archishman Chakraborty (Schulich School of Business, York University, Toronto)

Dr. Archishman Chakraborty (York University)

"Policy Persuasion and Electoral Competition"

Economics Seminar: Non-parametric Likelihood Ratio Tests for Goodness-of-Fit and Specification

Wednesday 14 November 2012

16:00 to 17:30
Prof. Patrick Marsh

Prof. Patrick Marsh (University of Nottingham)

"Non-parametric Likelihood Ratio Tests for Goodness-of-Fit and Specification"

Second Workshop on Structural Change and Macroeconomic Dynamics

Friday 16 November 2012

09.00 to 22.00

Organisers 

Cristiano Cantore (University of Surrey)
Miguel León-Ledesma (University of Kent)
Alessio Moro (Università di Cagliari)

Hosted by the University of Surrey and supported by the Royal Economic Society

Economics Seminar: Analysis and Forecasting of Electricity Prices Risks with Quantile Factor Models

Wednesday 21 November 2012

16:00 to 17:30
Dr. Sjur Westgaard (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

Dr. Sjur Westgaard (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

"Analysis and Forecasting of Electricity Prices Risks with Quantile Factor Models" 

Thinking of continuing your studies at Surrey?

Wednesday 21 November 2012

13.30 to 15.00
Academics from each school that will be able to answer your questions on Postgraduate study

If you are interested in applying for one of FBEL’s postgraduate programmes in Business, Economics or Law, come and visit us.

Find out more about the programmes on offer and have your questions answered by the academics that teach them.

Economics Seminar: Labelling Contests with Endogenous Precision

Wednesday 21 November 2012

14:00 to 15:30
Dr. Paul Schweinzer (University of York)

Dr. Paul Schweinzer (University of York)

"Labelling Contests with Endogenous Precision"

Economics Seminar: Social Learning with Coarse Inference

Wednesday 28 November 2012

16:00 to 17:30
Professor Antonio Guarino - UCL

Professor Antonio Guarino (University College London )

"Social Learning with Coarse Inference" (with Philippe Jehiel)

School of Economics Goldman Sachs Alumni Lecture

Thursday 29 November 2012

6pm - 8pm
Jim O'Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management

Join us as we welcome alumnus Jim O'Neill for an evening drinks reception and School of Economics alumni lecture on the global economy, current trajectory and the changing economies of the BRIC countries.

Speaker Profile

Jim O'Neill
is Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM). He is involved in helping guide all aspects of GSAM's business around the world. Prior to assuming this role in September 2010, he was head of Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research.

Jim is the creator of the acronym BRICs. Together with his colleagues, he has published much research about BRICs, which has become synonymous with the emergence of Brazil, Russia, India and China as the growth opportunities of the future.

Jim earned a degree in economics from Sheffield University in 1978 and a PhD from the University of Surrey in 1982. He received an honorary doctorate from the Institute of Education, University of London, in 2009 for his educational philanthropy.


Event Details
6pm
- Registration and Drinks Reception in the Austin Pearce Building
7pm - School of Economics Alumni Lecture in the Management School Lecture Theatre

Attendance is free of charge however booking is essential. Please reserve your seat by completing the relevant booking form:-

Alumni booking form
Current student, staff member and external business booking form

Economics Seminar: Conditional Alphas and Realized Betas

Thursday 6 December 2012

16:00 to 17:30
Prof. Valentina Corradi

Prof. Valentina Corradi (University of Warwick)

"Conditional Alphas and Realized Betas" (with W. Distaso and M. Fernandes)

Economics Seminar: Bounded Memory Folk Theorem

Wednesday 6 February 2013

16:00 to 17:30
Guilherme Carmona

Prof. Guilherme Carmona (University of Surrey)

"Bounded Memory Folk Theorem"

Economics Seminar: Queues and Strategic Experimentation

Wednesday 13 February 2013

16:00 to 17:30
Prof. Martin Cripps

Prof Martin Cripps (UCL) 

"Queues and Strategic Experimentation"

Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies Workshop

Thursday 14 February 2013

11:00 to 17:30

Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies Workshop

Economics Seminar: Modelling Sovereign Credit Ratings

Thursday 14 February 2013

16:00 to 17:30
Prof. Mike Wickens

Prof. Mike Wickens (University of Cardiff and University of York)

"Modelling Sovereign Credit Ratings"

Economics Seminar: Bootstrapping Tests for Jumps with an Application to Test Averaging

Wednesday 20 February 2013

16:00 to 17:30
Ana-Maria Dumitru

Dr. Ana-Maria Dumitru (University of Surrey)

"Bootstrapping Tests for Jumps with an Application to Test Averaging"

Economics Seminar: Structural Transformation and Pollution

Friday 8 March 2013

15:00 to 16:00
Dr. Radek Stefanski

Dr. Radek Stefanski (Universite’ de Laval)

“Structural Transformation and Pollution”

Economics Seminar: The Effect of Lifelong Learning on Men’s Wages

Wednesday 13 March 2013

16:00 to 17:30
Prof. Martin Weale

Prof. Martin Weale (Bank of England and University of Queen Mary)

"The Effect of Lifelong Learning on Men’s Wages"

Mode Regression: An overview, current research, and an application to intergenerational income mobility

Wednesday 24 April 2013

16.00
Professor Joao Santos Silva

The School of Economics would like to invite you to attend the next seminar in the series.

Abstract 

Beginning with the mode of regression and the corresponding estimator proposed by Kemp and Santos Silva (2012). I'll then briefly discuss some extensions currently being developed, and I'll conclude with an empirical application looking at intergenerational income mobility in the US.

Economics Seminar: Pursuing Accuracy: Using Decision Theory to Find Out How We Should Reason

Wednesday 15 May 2013

16:00 to 17:30
Richard Pettigrew

Dr. Richard Pettigrew (University of Bristol)

"Pursuing Accuracy: Using Decision Theory to Find Out How We Should Reason"

Economics Seminar: A Structural Model of Segregation in Social Networks

Wednesday 5 June 2013

12:00 to 13:30
Angelo Mele

Dr. Angelo Mele (Carey Business School at John Hopkins University)

"A Structural Model of Segregation in Social Networks"

School of Economics Graduation ceremonies 2012-13

Friday 19 July 2013

10:00 to 17:00

We are looking forward to seeing our graduands and their families as well as our Faculty staff to celebrate all FBEL students' achievements. 

CIMS Summer Course on DSGE Modelling

Monday 9 September 2013

Model Construction, Estimation  and Use of DSGE Macroeconomic Models. September 9-13, 2013, University of Surrey.  A Dynare-Based Summer Course.

Risky Investment with Limited Commitment

Wednesday 9 October 2013

16.00 to 17.30
Professor Vincenzo Quadrini, University of Southern California

Abstract

Over the last three decades there has been a dramatic increase in the size of the financial sector and in the compensation of financial executives. This increase has been associated with greater risk-taking with the use of more complex financial instruments. Parallel to this trend, the organizational structure of the financial sector has changed with the traditional partnership replaced by public companies. The organizational change has increased the competition for managerial talent, which may have weakened the commitment between investors and managers. We show how increased competition and the weaker commitment can raise the managerial incentives to undertake risky investment. In the general equilibrium, this change results in higher risk-taking, a larger and more productive financial sector with greater income inequality (within and across sectors), and lower stock market valuation of financial institutions.

Economics Seminar: Conditioned Nash and Bayesian-Nash Equilibria

Thursday 10 October 2013

15:00 to 16:30

 Prof. Erik Balder (University of Utrecht)

"Conditioned Nash and Bayesian-Nash Equilibria"

Selling Through Referrals

Wednesday 16 October 2013

16.00 to 17.30
Professor Vasiliki Skreta, University College London

Abstract

A seller has an object for sale and can reach buyers only through intermediaries, who also have privileged information about buyers’ valuations. Intermediaries can either mediate the transaction by buying the object and reselling it–the merchant model–or refer buyers to the seller and release information for a fee–the agency model. The merchant model suffers from double marginalization. The agency model suffers from adverse selection: Intermediaries would like to refer low-value buyers, but retain high-value ones and make profits from resale. We show that, in equilibrium, intermediaries specialize in agency. Seller’s and intermediaries’ joint profits equal the seller’s profits when he has access to all buyers and all intermediaries’ information. Profits’ division depends on seller’s and intermediaries’ relative bargaining power. Our results rationalize the prevalence of the agency model in online markets.

Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression-Discontinuity Designs

Thursday 17 October 2013

16.00 to 17.30
Dr Matias Cattaneo, University of Michigan

Abstract

In the regression-discontinuity (RD) design, units are assigned to treatment based on whether their value of an observed covariate exceeds a known cutoff. In this design, local polynomial estimators are now routinely employed to construct confidence intervals for treatment effects. The performance of these confidence intervals in applications, however, may be seriously hampered by their sensitivity to the specific bandwidth employed. Available bandwidth selectors typically yield a “large”bandwidth, leading to data-driven confidence intervals that may be severely biased, with empirical coverage well below their nominal target. We propose new, more robust, theory-based confidence interval estimators for average treatment effects in sharp RD, kink RD, fuzzy RD and fuzzy kink RD designs. Our proposed confidence intervals rely on a recentered RD estimator together with a novel standard-error estimator. For practical implementation, we propose a consistent standard-error estimator that does not require an additional bandwidth choice, as well as valid bandwidth choices compatible with our underlying large-sample theory. In a simulation study, we find that our novel data-driven confidence intervals exhibit close-to-correct empirical coverage and good empirical interval length on average, remarkably improving upon the alternatives available in the literature. We illustrate the performance of our proposed methods with household data from Progresa/Oportunidades, a conditional cash transfer program in Mexico. All the results in this paper are readily available in STATA using our companion package (rdrobust) described in Calonico, Cattaneo, and Titiunik (2013).

Incidental Parameter Bias in Panel Quantile Regressions

Wednesday 23 October 2013

16.00 to 17.30
Dr Martin Weidner, University College London

Abstract

This paper studies linear quantile regression (QR) estimators in panel data settings with fixed effects. The estimation error in the fixed effects causes an incidental parameter problem in the parameters of interest, and we work out the first order asymptotic bias under an asymptotic where both N and T grow to infinity. This leading incidental parameter bias is of order 1/T, analogous to the situation in non-linear fixed effect panel models with smooth objective function. The key technical challenge in deriving our result is that the QR objective function is non-smooth, rendering the existing large T asymptotic bias results in the panel literature non-applicable. We provide analytic and Jackknife bias corrected estimators and study their performance in Monte Carlo simulations, and in an application to educational achievement of US high-school students.

Long-Term Asset Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Wednesday 30 October 2013

16.00 to 17.30
Professor Manuel Santos, University of Miami

Abstract

We analyze a stochastic growth model with lags in the operation of new technologies. Stock values are impacted by news on technological innovations and some other external shocks affecting the economy. We develop some numerical methods to analyze the volatility of asset prices. Our analysis singles out price markups and leverage as key determinants of asset price volatility, and confers a rather limited role to technology shocks, adjustment costs, interest rate policies, input costs, taxes, and labor and financial frictions. Price markups seem highly correlated with stock market values, whereas other financial measures such as dividends and earnings present much less variability over time and across company vintages.

The Appeal of Information Transactions

Wednesday 6 November 2013

16.00 to 17.30
Dr Antonio Cabrales, University College London (UCL)

Abstract

An information transaction entails the purchase of information. Formally, it consists of an information structure together with a price. We develop an index of the appeal of information transactions, which is derived as a dual to the agent’s preferences for information. The index of information transactions has a simple analytic characterization in terms of the relative entropy from priors to posteriors, and it also connects naturally with a recent index of riskiness.

Police and Clearance Rates: Evidence from Recurrent Redeployments Within a City

Wednesday 13 November 2013

16.00 to 17.00
Dr Giovanni Mastrobuoni, University of Essex

Abstract

More policing reduces crime, but little is known about the mechanism. Does policing deter crime by reducing its attractiveness, or is the reduction driven by increased arrest rates that incapacitate recurrent criminals?
This paper exploits micro-level data on single robberies together with redeployments of two police forces within a city, providing first evidence of a direct link between police presence and the likelihood of clearing cases. During shift turnovers, reduced patrolling lowers the likelihood of identifying and arresting robbers, including would be repeat offenders, from 13.5 to 8 percent. There is almost no evidence that criminals systematically target shift changes to reduce the risk of being apprehended.

State-Building, Mass Mirgration and Compulsory Schooling in US States

Wednesday 20 November 2013

16.00 to 17.00
Professor Imran Rasul, University College London

State-Building, Mass Mirgration and Compulsory Schooling in US States

How Darwinian should an economy be?

Wednesday 27 November 2013

16.00 to 17.30
Professor Gilles Saint-Paul, Toulouse School of Economics

Synopsis

In most of macroeconomics, agents are considered as sufficiently intelligent to carry all required calculations and compute the rational expectations equilibrium. An important literature, however, questions that assumption and tries to examine the extent to which the economy can "learn" such an equilibrium. In many cases, for example, a reduced form law of motion for the variables of interest is postulated and the agents learn its parameters, typically by using least squares or Bayesian techniques.

This paper asks the following question: how good is an economy at learning the rational expectations equilibrium, when learning takes place through a Darwinian selection mechanism by which less profitable firms are eliminated and more profitable ones replicate themselves? Does greater selection systematically bring the economy closer to the rational expectations equilibrium or can one make a case for limiting it?

Economics Seminar: Does Labor Legislation Benefit Workers?

Wednesday 5 March 2014

16:00 to 17:30
Prof. Daniel Hamermesh

Prof. Daniel Hamermesh (University of Texas at Austin)

"Does Labor Legislation Benefit Workers?" (joint with D. Kawaguchi and J. Lee)

Economics Seminar: Never mind the hyperbolics: nonparametric analysis of time-inconsistent behaviour

Wednesday 12 March 2014

16.00 to 17.00
Ian Crawford, Professor of Economics, University of Oxford

Abstract

We investigate necessary and sufficient nonparametric conditions for the quasi-hyperbolic consumer. These turn out to be quite tractable. We investigate the empirical performance of this model using consumer panel data.

The Growth Potential of Startups over the Business Cycle

Wednesday 19 March 2014

16:00 to 17:00
Vincent Sterk, UCL

Abstract

This paper shows that job creation of cohorts of U.S. firms is strongly influenced by aggregate conditions at the time of their entry. Using data from the Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) we follow cohorts of young firms and document that their employment levels are very persistent and largely driven by the intensive margin (average firm size) rather than the extensive margin (number of firms). To differentiate changes in the composition of startup cohorts from post-entry choices and to evaluate aggregate effects, we estimate a general equilibrium firm dynamics model using BDS data. We find that even for older firms, the aggregate state at birth drives the vast majority of variations in employment across cohorts of the same age. The key force behind this result are fluctuations in the composition of startup cohorts with respect to firms' potential to grow large. At the aggregate level, factors determined at the startup phase account for the large low-frequency fluctuations observed in the employment rate.

Economics Seminar: Generalised Instrumental Variable Models

Wednesday 7 May 2014

16:00 to 17:00
Adam Rosen

Dr. Adam Rosen (UCL)

"Generalised Instrumental Variable Models"

Effects of Early Interventions on Child Health and Education

Thursday 8 May 2014

This two-day workshop will consider the impacts of early interventions on children’s health and education. It will look at what can be learnt from quantitative research using ‘big data’. Increasingly administrative data is being made available to look at these issues in new ways. The workshop will explore how researchers are using cutting-edge quantitative techniques to look at a set of related issues on child health and education.

Policy interest in the themes of the workshop is likely to reach a peak coming up to the next general election with proposals already announced on free school meals, out of school childcare and family tax allowance. The approach taken in this workshop will be uniquely multi-faceted, covering health, education, and non-cognitive outcomes and looking across a range of countries.

Economics Seminar: Understanding Employment Persistence

Wednesday 14 May 2014

16:00 to 17:00

Prof. Mike Elsby (University of Edinburgh)

"Understanding Employment Persistence"

Cooperation in Continuous Dilemma and Uncertain Reaction Lag

Wednesday 21 May 2014

16:00
In-Uck Park

ABSTRACT

This paper shows that cooperation can be sustained until close to the end
of a  finite-horizon, continuous-time prisoners' dilemma when there is informational
asymmetry in how quickly players can respond. The simulated equilibrium closely
replicates recent experimental results (Friedman and Oprea, 2012, AER). The core
argument is extended to a class of canonical preemption games with private information on the player's payoff
margin of preempting relative to being preempted, that can be applied to other well-known examples of conflict such as the centipede game.

Summer School and Conference

Monday 8 September 2014

Following highly successful summer schools in previous years, the Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies (CIMS) in the School of Economics, University of Surrey will hold a Summer School from 8th -12th September 2014, followed by a one-day Conference on Saturday, 13th September.  

Following the Crowd: Leisure Complementarities Beyond the Household

Wednesday 8 October 2014

16:00 to 17:30
Dr. Eric Maurin 

Dr. Eric Maurin (Paris School of Economics)

Title: "Following the crowd: leisure complementarities beyond the household"

Economics Seminar: The Welfare cost of Unpriced Heterogeneity in Insurance Markets

Tuesday 14 October 2014

16:00 to 17:30
Dr. Valentino Dardanon

Dr. Valentino Dardanoni (University of Palermo)

Title: "The Welfare cost of Unpriced Heterogeneity in Insurance Markets"

Economics Seminar: Estimating the Production Function of Human Capital: Using a Randomized Control Trial to Estimate a Structural Model

Wednesday 22 October 2014

16:00 to 17:30
Prof. Orazio Attanasio

 Prof. Orazio Attanasio (UCL)

Title: Estimating the Production Function of Human Capital: Using a Randomized Control Trial to Estimate a Structural Model

Page Owner: il0001
Page Created: Monday 18 January 2010 16:54:06 by t00356
Last Modified: Monday 8 July 2013 12:02:05 by es0016
Expiry Date: Monday 18 April 2011 16:51:53
Assembly date: Thu Oct 23 10:15:29 BST 2014
Content ID: 21893
Revision: 4
Community: 1200