Events

Economics Seminar: Bounded Memory Folk Theorem

Wednesday 6 February 2013

16:00 to 17:30
Guilherme Carmona

Prof. Guilherme Carmona (University of Surrey)

"Bounded Memory Folk Theorem"

Economics Seminar: Queues and Strategic Experimentation

Wednesday 13 February 2013

16:00 to 17:30
Prof. Martin Cripps

Prof Martin Cripps (UCL) 

"Queues and Strategic Experimentation"

Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies Workshop

Thursday 14 February 2013

11:00 to 17:30

Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies Workshop

Economics Seminar: Modelling Sovereign Credit Ratings

Thursday 14 February 2013

16:00 to 17:30
Prof. Mike Wickens

Prof. Mike Wickens (University of Cardiff and University of York)

"Modelling Sovereign Credit Ratings"

Economics Seminar: Bootstrapping Tests for Jumps with an Application to Test Averaging

Wednesday 20 February 2013

16:00 to 17:30
Ana-Maria Dumitru

Dr. Ana-Maria Dumitru (University of Surrey)

"Bootstrapping Tests for Jumps with an Application to Test Averaging"

Economics Seminar: Structural Transformation and Pollution

Friday 8 March 2013

15:00 to 16:00
Dr. Radek Stefanski

Dr. Radek Stefanski (Universite’ de Laval)

“Structural Transformation and Pollution”

Economics Seminar: The Effect of Lifelong Learning on Men’s Wages

Wednesday 13 March 2013

16:00 to 17:30
Prof. Martin Weale

Prof. Martin Weale (Bank of England and University of Queen Mary)

"The Effect of Lifelong Learning on Men’s Wages"

Mode Regression: An overview, current research, and an application to intergenerational income mobility

Wednesday 24 April 2013

16.00
Professor Joao Santos Silva

The School of Economics would like to invite you to attend the next seminar in the series.

Abstract 

Beginning with the mode of regression and the corresponding estimator proposed by Kemp and Santos Silva (2012). I'll then briefly discuss some extensions currently being developed, and I'll conclude with an empirical application looking at intergenerational income mobility in the US.

Economics Seminar: Pursuing Accuracy: Using Decision Theory to Find Out How We Should Reason

Wednesday 15 May 2013

16:00 to 17:30
Richard Pettigrew

Dr. Richard Pettigrew (University of Bristol)

"Pursuing Accuracy: Using Decision Theory to Find Out How We Should Reason"

Economics Seminar: A Structural Model of Segregation in Social Networks

Wednesday 5 June 2013

12:00 to 13:30
Angelo Mele

Dr. Angelo Mele (Carey Business School at John Hopkins University)

"A Structural Model of Segregation in Social Networks"

Open Day

Friday 28 June 2013

08:30 to 16:00

Whether your perspective is from school, returning to study, or taking your higher education to the next level, here at Surrey we understand that there is a lot to think about, and we hope our Open Days will help you towards making the right decision about where you would like to study.

Open Day

Saturday 29 June 2013

08:30 to 16:00

Whether your perspective is from school, returning to study, or taking your higher education to the next level, here at Surrey we understand that there is a lot to think about, and we hope our Open Days will help you towards making the right decision about where you would like to study.

School of Economics Graduation ceremonies 2012-13

Friday 19 July 2013

10:00 to 17:00

We are looking forward to seeing our graduands and their families as well as our Faculty staff to celebrate all FBEL students' achievements. 

Open Day 6 Sept 2013

Friday 6 September 2013

08:30 to 16:00

Come and visit us on an Open Day.

Whether your perspective is from school, returning to study, or taking your higher education to the next level, here at Surrey we understand that there is a lot to think about, and we hope our Open Days will help you towards making the right decision about where you would like to study.

Open Day

Saturday 7 September 2013

08:30 to 16:00

Come and visit us on an Open Day.

Whether your perspective is from school, returning to study, or taking your higher education to the next level, here at Surrey we understand that there is a lot to think about, and we hope our Open Days will help you towards making the right decision about where you would like to study.

CIMS Summer Course on DSGE Modelling

Monday 9 September 2013

Model Construction, Estimation  and Use of DSGE Macroeconomic Models. September 9-13, 2013, University of Surrey.  A Dynare-Based Summer Course.

Risky Investment with Limited Commitment

Wednesday 9 October 2013

16.00 to 17.30
Professor Vincenzo Quadrini, University of Southern California

Abstract

Over the last three decades there has been a dramatic increase in the size of the financial sector and in the compensation of financial executives. This increase has been associated with greater risk-taking with the use of more complex financial instruments. Parallel to this trend, the organizational structure of the financial sector has changed with the traditional partnership replaced by public companies. The organizational change has increased the competition for managerial talent, which may have weakened the commitment between investors and managers. We show how increased competition and the weaker commitment can raise the managerial incentives to undertake risky investment. In the general equilibrium, this change results in higher risk-taking, a larger and more productive financial sector with greater income inequality (within and across sectors), and lower stock market valuation of financial institutions.

Economics Seminar: Conditioned Nash and Bayesian-Nash Equilibria

Thursday 10 October 2013

15:00 to 16:30

 Prof. Erik Balder (University of Utrecht)

"Conditioned Nash and Bayesian-Nash Equilibria"

Open Day 12 Oct 2013

Saturday 12 October 2013

08:30 to 16:00

Come and visit us on an Open Day.

Whether your perspective is from school, returning to study, or taking your higher education to the next level, here at Surrey we understand that there is a lot to think about, and we hope our Open Days will help you towards making the right decision about where you would like to study.

Selling Through Referrals

Wednesday 16 October 2013

16.00 to 17.30
Professor Vasiliki Skreta, University College London

Abstract

A seller has an object for sale and can reach buyers only through intermediaries, who also have privileged information about buyers’ valuations. Intermediaries can either mediate the transaction by buying the object and reselling it–the merchant model–or refer buyers to the seller and release information for a fee–the agency model. The merchant model suffers from double marginalization. The agency model suffers from adverse selection: Intermediaries would like to refer low-value buyers, but retain high-value ones and make profits from resale. We show that, in equilibrium, intermediaries specialize in agency. Seller’s and intermediaries’ joint profits equal the seller’s profits when he has access to all buyers and all intermediaries’ information. Profits’ division depends on seller’s and intermediaries’ relative bargaining power. Our results rationalize the prevalence of the agency model in online markets.

Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression-Discontinuity Designs

Thursday 17 October 2013

16.00 to 17.30
Dr Matias Cattaneo, University of Michigan

Abstract

In the regression-discontinuity (RD) design, units are assigned to treatment based on whether their value of an observed covariate exceeds a known cutoff. In this design, local polynomial estimators are now routinely employed to construct confidence intervals for treatment effects. The performance of these confidence intervals in applications, however, may be seriously hampered by their sensitivity to the specific bandwidth employed. Available bandwidth selectors typically yield a “large”bandwidth, leading to data-driven confidence intervals that may be severely biased, with empirical coverage well below their nominal target. We propose new, more robust, theory-based confidence interval estimators for average treatment effects in sharp RD, kink RD, fuzzy RD and fuzzy kink RD designs. Our proposed confidence intervals rely on a recentered RD estimator together with a novel standard-error estimator. For practical implementation, we propose a consistent standard-error estimator that does not require an additional bandwidth choice, as well as valid bandwidth choices compatible with our underlying large-sample theory. In a simulation study, we find that our novel data-driven confidence intervals exhibit close-to-correct empirical coverage and good empirical interval length on average, remarkably improving upon the alternatives available in the literature. We illustrate the performance of our proposed methods with household data from Progresa/Oportunidades, a conditional cash transfer program in Mexico. All the results in this paper are readily available in STATA using our companion package (rdrobust) described in Calonico, Cattaneo, and Titiunik (2013).

Incidental Parameter Bias in Panel Quantile Regressions

Wednesday 23 October 2013

16.00 to 17.30
Dr Martin Weidner, University College London

Abstract

This paper studies linear quantile regression (QR) estimators in panel data settings with fixed effects. The estimation error in the fixed effects causes an incidental parameter problem in the parameters of interest, and we work out the first order asymptotic bias under an asymptotic where both N and T grow to infinity. This leading incidental parameter bias is of order 1/T, analogous to the situation in non-linear fixed effect panel models with smooth objective function. The key technical challenge in deriving our result is that the QR objective function is non-smooth, rendering the existing large T asymptotic bias results in the panel literature non-applicable. We provide analytic and Jackknife bias corrected estimators and study their performance in Monte Carlo simulations, and in an application to educational achievement of US high-school students.

Long-Term Asset Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Wednesday 30 October 2013

16.00 to 17.30
Professor Manuel Santos, University of Miami

Abstract

We analyze a stochastic growth model with lags in the operation of new technologies. Stock values are impacted by news on technological innovations and some other external shocks affecting the economy. We develop some numerical methods to analyze the volatility of asset prices. Our analysis singles out price markups and leverage as key determinants of asset price volatility, and confers a rather limited role to technology shocks, adjustment costs, interest rate policies, input costs, taxes, and labor and financial frictions. Price markups seem highly correlated with stock market values, whereas other financial measures such as dividends and earnings present much less variability over time and across company vintages.

The Appeal of Information Transactions

Wednesday 6 November 2013

16.00 to 17.30
Dr Antonio Cabrales, University College London (UCL)

Abstract

An information transaction entails the purchase of information. Formally, it consists of an information structure together with a price. We develop an index of the appeal of information transactions, which is derived as a dual to the agent’s preferences for information. The index of information transactions has a simple analytic characterization in terms of the relative entropy from priors to posteriors, and it also connects naturally with a recent index of riskiness.

Police and Clearance Rates: Evidence from Recurrent Redeployments Within a City

Wednesday 13 November 2013

16.00 to 17.00
Dr Giovanni Mastrobuoni, University of Essex

Abstract

More policing reduces crime, but little is known about the mechanism. Does policing deter crime by reducing its attractiveness, or is the reduction driven by increased arrest rates that incapacitate recurrent criminals?
This paper exploits micro-level data on single robberies together with redeployments of two police forces within a city, providing first evidence of a direct link between police presence and the likelihood of clearing cases. During shift turnovers, reduced patrolling lowers the likelihood of identifying and arresting robbers, including would be repeat offenders, from 13.5 to 8 percent. There is almost no evidence that criminals systematically target shift changes to reduce the risk of being apprehended.

State-Building, Mass Mirgration and Compulsory Schooling in US States

Wednesday 20 November 2013

16.00 to 17.00
Professor Imran Rasul, University College London

State-Building, Mass Mirgration and Compulsory Schooling in US States

How Darwinian should an economy be?

Wednesday 27 November 2013

16.00 to 17.30
Professor Gilles Saint-Paul, Toulouse School of Economics

Synopsis

In most of macroeconomics, agents are considered as sufficiently intelligent to carry all required calculations and compute the rational expectations equilibrium. An important literature, however, questions that assumption and tries to examine the extent to which the economy can "learn" such an equilibrium. In many cases, for example, a reduced form law of motion for the variables of interest is postulated and the agents learn its parameters, typically by using least squares or Bayesian techniques.

This paper asks the following question: how good is an economy at learning the rational expectations equilibrium, when learning takes place through a Darwinian selection mechanism by which less profitable firms are eliminated and more profitable ones replicate themselves? Does greater selection systematically bring the economy closer to the rational expectations equilibrium or can one make a case for limiting it?

Economics Seminar Series Extending the scope of cube root asymptotics

Wednesday 4 December 2013

16:00
Taisuke Otsu, London School of Economics

This article extends the scope of cube root asymptotics for M-estimators in two directions: allow weakly dependent observations and criterion functions drifting with the sample sizes typically due to bandwidth sequences. For dependent empirical processes that characterize criterions inducing cube root phenomena, maximal inequalities are established so that a modified continuous mapping theorem for maximizing values of the criterions delivers limit laws of the M-estimators.

Economics Seminar: Does Labor Legislation Benefit Workers?

Wednesday 5 March 2014

16:00 to 17:30
Prof. Daniel Hamermesh

Prof. Daniel Hamermesh (University of Texas at Austin)

"Does Labor Legislation Benefit Workers?" (joint with D. Kawaguchi and J. Lee)

Economics Seminar: Never mind the hyperbolics: nonparametric analysis of time-inconsistent behaviour

Wednesday 12 March 2014

16.00 to 17.00
Ian Crawford, Professor of Economics, University of Oxford

Abstract

We investigate necessary and sufficient nonparametric conditions for the quasi-hyperbolic consumer. These turn out to be quite tractable. We investigate the empirical performance of this model using consumer panel data.

The Growth Potential of Startups over the Business Cycle

Wednesday 19 March 2014

16:00 to 17:00
Vincent Sterk, UCL

Abstract

This paper shows that job creation of cohorts of U.S. firms is strongly influenced by aggregate conditions at the time of their entry. Using data from the Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) we follow cohorts of young firms and document that their employment levels are very persistent and largely driven by the intensive margin (average firm size) rather than the extensive margin (number of firms). To differentiate changes in the composition of startup cohorts from post-entry choices and to evaluate aggregate effects, we estimate a general equilibrium firm dynamics model using BDS data. We find that even for older firms, the aggregate state at birth drives the vast majority of variations in employment across cohorts of the same age. The key force behind this result are fluctuations in the composition of startup cohorts with respect to firms' potential to grow large. At the aggregate level, factors determined at the startup phase account for the large low-frequency fluctuations observed in the employment rate.

Economics Seminar: Generalised Instrumental Variable Models

Wednesday 7 May 2014

16:00 to 17:00
Adam Rosen

Dr. Adam Rosen (UCL)

"Generalised Instrumental Variable Models"

Effects of Early Interventions on Child Health and Education

Thursday 8 May 2014

This two-day workshop will consider the impacts of early interventions on children’s health and education. It will look at what can be learnt from quantitative research using ‘big data’. Increasingly administrative data is being made available to look at these issues in new ways. The workshop will explore how researchers are using cutting-edge quantitative techniques to look at a set of related issues on child health and education.

Policy interest in the themes of the workshop is likely to reach a peak coming up to the next general election with proposals already announced on free school meals, out of school childcare and family tax allowance. The approach taken in this workshop will be uniquely multi-faceted, covering health, education, and non-cognitive outcomes and looking across a range of countries.

Economics Seminar: Understanding Employment Persistence

Wednesday 14 May 2014

16:00 to 17:00

Prof. Mike Elsby (University of Edinburgh)

"Understanding Employment Persistence"

Cooperation in Continuous Dilemma and Uncertain Reaction Lag

Wednesday 21 May 2014

16:00
In-Uck Park

ABSTRACT

This paper shows that cooperation can be sustained until close to the end
of a  finite-horizon, continuous-time prisoners' dilemma when there is informational
asymmetry in how quickly players can respond. The simulated equilibrium closely
replicates recent experimental results (Friedman and Oprea, 2012, AER). The core
argument is extended to a class of canonical preemption games with private information on the player's payoff
margin of preempting relative to being preempted, that can be applied to other well-known examples of conflict such as the centipede game.

Following the Crowd: Leisure Complementarities Beyond the Household

Wednesday 8 October 2014

16:00 to 17:30
Dr. Eric Maurin 

Dr. Eric Maurin (Paris School of Economics)

Title: "Following the crowd: leisure complementarities beyond the household"

Economics Seminar: The Welfare cost of Unpriced Heterogeneity in Insurance Markets

Tuesday 14 October 2014

16:00 to 17:30
Dr. Valentino Dardanon

Dr. Valentino Dardanoni (University of Palermo)

Title: "The Welfare cost of Unpriced Heterogeneity in Insurance Markets"

Economics Seminar: Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations

Wednesday 15 October 2014

16:00 to 17:30
Dr. Pedro Teles

Dr. Pedro Teles (Bank of Portugal and Universidade Catolica de Lisboa) 

Title: "Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations"

Economics Seminar: Estimating the Production Function of Human Capital: Using a Randomized Control Trial to Estimate a Structural Model

Wednesday 22 October 2014

16:00 to 17:30
Prof. Orazio Attanasio

 Prof. Orazio Attanasio (UCL)

Title: Estimating the Production Function of Human Capital: Using a Randomized Control Trial to Estimate a Structural Model

Economics Seminar: On the Dynamics of Beliefs and Risky Sexual Behavior

Wednesday 29 October 2014

16:00 to 17:30
Dr. Flavio Toxvaerd (University of Cambridge)

Economics Seminar: The Search Curse in Long Term Relationships

Wednesday 12 November 2014

16:00 to 17:30
Dr. Olivier Gossner

Economics Seminar: Dynamic Rational Inattention: Inertia and Delay in Decision Making

Wednesday 19 November 2014

16:00 to 17:30
Prof. Jakub Steiner

Economics Seminar: Early School Exposure, Test Scores, and Noncognitive Outcomes

Wednesday 26 November 2014

16:00 to 17:30
Dr. Thomas Cornelissen (UCL)

Malthus Dinner

Friday 13 February 2015

18:30 to midnight
Jonathan Portes, Director, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

The biennial Malthus Dinner returns for 2015, for all students and staff in the School of Economics.

Economics Seminar: Output and Unemployment Dynamics: The View Through Okun's Macroscope

Wednesday 18 February 2015

16:00 to 17:30
Dr. John Fernald

Economics Seminar: Rational Addiction in Lotto

Wednesday 4 March 2015

16:00 to 17:30
Prof. Ian Walker

Easter School

Monday 20 April 2015

Paul Levine and Cristiano Cantore

Following highly successful summer schools in previous years, the Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies (CIMS) in the School of Economics, University of Surrey will hold a three-day Easter School from 20-22 April, 2015.  The deadline for application is 1 April 2015.

The Course provides a beginners’ introduction to DSGE modelling. It is Dynare-based and is aimed at early researchers with no experience of this software package. It will provide an excellent preparation for the intermediate Course and options held at the University of Surrey in the Summer.

Summer School and Conference

Monday 7 September 2015

Following highly successful summer schools in previous years, the Centre for International Macroeconomic Studies (CIMS) in the School of Economics, University of Surrey will hold a Summer School from 7 -11 September 2015.  

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Last Modified: Tuesday 13 January 2015 16:10:09 by pj0010
Expiry Date: Monday 18 April 2011 16:51:53
Assembly date: Mon Mar 02 20:40:14 GMT 2015
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Revision: 7
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