Stochastic physics in numerical weather prediction and climate models
- When?
- Wednesday 13 October 2010, 16:00 to 17:00
- Where?
- 24AA04
- Open to:
- Students, Staff
- Speaker:
- Glenn Shutts
Abstract: Ensemble forecasting systems, comprising a control forecast and a large number of perturbed forecasts, form the mathematical basis of probabilistic weather prediction. The control forecast is a lower resolution version of the main 'deterministic' run and the perturbed runs address uncertainty in the initial conditions and model equations. Terms introduced into the model equations attempt to account for random error associated with the chaotic nature of sub-grid processes and upscale energy transport.
This talk will describe recent advances in the implementation of stochastic physics and how the various schemes are calibrated using a coarse-graining methodology.
