Dr Gang Li
Reader in Tourism Economics
Qualifications: BA (First Class), MSc (Distinction), PhD (Surrey)
Email: g.li@surrey.ac.uk
Phone: Work: 01483 68 6356
Room no: 49 MS 02
Office hours
Please e-mail me to arrange an appointment
Further information
Biography
Gang gained his BA in Economics with his major in Investment and Accounting in DUFE, China. From the same university, he also obtained an MSc (distinction) in Econometrics and Statistics. In 2000 Gang came to the University of Surrey to conduct his PhD research on tourism forecasting. In September 2003 Gang joined the teaching team in the School of Management. Gang has participated in a number of international collaborative projects on economic analysis of tourism demand and tourism forecasting.
Research Interests
• Tourism economics with particular interests in econometric Modelling and forecasting of tourism demand;
• Quantitative research methods for tourism studies;
• Tourism competition and destination competitiveness;
• Chinese economic issues especially socio-economic development assessment.
Research Collaborations
Current project in collaboration with the School of Hotel and Tourism Management at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University:
• “Demand Forecasting in the Context of Tourism Supply Chains”, funded by The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, 2011-2013.
• “Integrating Judgmental and Statistical Forecast of Tourism Demand for Hong Kong”, funded by The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, 2011-2013.
Completed projects in collaboration with The Hong Kong Polytechnic University:
• “Evaluating Hong Kong's Competitiveness as an International Tourism Destination from the Economic Policy Perspective”, funded by Hong Kong Research Grants Council, the Public Policy Research Scheme, 2008-2010.
• “Automatic Forecasting for Tourism in Hong Kong”, funded by The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, 2008-2010.
• “Assessing Hong Kong’s Competitiveness as an International Tourism Destination Using Tourist Satisfaction Indexes”, funded by The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, 2007-2010.
• “Modelling and Forecasting Seasonal Tourism Demand in Hong Kong using Structural Time Series Models with Time Varying Demand Elasticities”, the Competitive Earmarked Research Grant, funded by Hong Kong University Grants Committee, 2007-2009
• “Econometric Analysis of Hong Kong Tourist Expenditure”, the Competitive Earmarked Research Grant, funded by University Grants Committee Hong Kong, 2005-2007.
• “Establishing a Tourism Demand Forecasting System for Hong Kong”, funded by the Public Policy Research Institute, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, 2005-2008.
Completed PhD Supervisions
2010 Tae-Hong AHN: Symbolic and Functional Congruity and Tourist Destination Choice.
2007 Shujie SHEN: Combination Forecasts of UK Outbound Leisure Tourism Demand.
2007 Fei JIA: Foreign Direct Investment Linkage: Impacts, Determinants and Policies.
2006 Sang-Hyun HAN: Recreation demand modelling and non-market valuation of cultural heritage tourist resources.
Publications
Journal articles
- . (2013) 'How competitive is Hong Kong against its competitors? An econometric study'. Tourism Management, 36 (1), pp. 247-256.
- . (2012) 'Tourism Economics Research: A Review and Assessment'. Annals of Tourism Research, 39 (3), pp. 1653-1682.
- . (2012) 'Economic Analysis of Tourism Consumption Dynamics: A Time-varying Parameter Demand System Approach'. Annals of Tourism Research, 39 (2), pp. 667-685.
- . (2012) 'Comparing mainland Chinese tourists’ satisfaction with Hong Kong and the UK using tourist satisfaction index'. Journal of China Tourism Research, 8, pp. 371-392.
- . (2012) 'Hong Kong Tourist Satisfaction Index'. Annals of Tourism Research, 39 (1), pp. 459-479.
- . (2011) 'Self and Functional Congruence and Tourist Destination Choice'. Journal of Business Research,
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(2011) 'Assessing Mainland Chinese Tourists' Satisfaction with Hong Kong Using Tourist Satisfaction Index'. International Journal of Tourism Research, 13 (1), pp. 82-96.doi: 10.1002/jtr.801
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(2011) 'Analyzing Tourist Consumption: A Dynamic System-of-Equations Approach'. Journal of Travel Research, 50 (1), pp. 46-56.Full text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/7596/
Abstract
The dynamic system-of-equations approach has been used to analyze the demand for outbound tourism among a number of destinations. However, this approach has not been applied to the context of the tourist consumption of different products in a given destination. Given the importance of understanding tourists' consumption behavior to destination management, this study seeks to gain new insights into Hong Kong inbound tourist expenditure patterns using a dynamic system-of-equations approach: the almost ideal demand system model. Based on the estimation of a complete demand system, this study investigates the interactions among the demand for different tourism products (i.e., shopping, hotel accommodation, meals outside hotels, and other) and the impacts of price changes on demand. Tourists from different source markets are examined separately, and the results show that their consumption behavior differs significantly.
- . (2011) 'Forecasting Tourist Arrivals Using Time-Varying Parameter Structural Time Series Models'. International Journal of Forecasting, 27 (3), pp. 855-869.
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(2011) 'Combination forecasts of International tourism demand'. Annals of Tourism Research, 38 (1), pp. 72-89.Full text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/7589/
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(2010) 'Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: How Should Demand Be Measured?'. Tourism Economics, 16 (1), pp. 63-81.Full text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/7594/
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(2010) 'Recovery of Tourism Demand in Hong Kong from the Global Financial and Economic Crisis'. Journal of China Tourism Research, 6 (3), pp. 259-278.Full text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/7590/
Abstract
This study aims to predict the recovery of the Hong Kong tourism industry from the current global financial and economic crisis. Based on the latest statistics available, this study provides updated forecasts of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong from 10 key source markets over the period 2010-2015. The forecasts include annual and quarterly forecasts of tourist arrivals and the market shares of the source markets concerned. An econometric method is used to estimate the demand elasticities as well as their confidence intervals, followed by the interval demand predictions. The total tourist arrivals to Hong Kong are projected to reach 53.8 million by 2015 with the interval forecasts between 38.4 and 74.4 million, representing an annual growth of 10.48% on average against 2009, with an interval ranging from 4.44% to 16.60%. As far as individual source markets are concerned, their demand recovery takes varying paces. Overall, tourism demand in Hong Kong is relatively resilient to the global financial and economic crisis.
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(2009) 'Customer Satisfaction with and Loyalty towards Online Travel Products: A Transaction Cost Economics Perspective'. Tourism Economics, 15 (4), pp. 825-846.Full text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/7600/
Abstract
This study examines the usefulness of the theory of transaction cost economics (TCE) for the online travel market and investigates customer satisfaction and loyalty with the transaction cost over the Internet taken into account. Using structural equation modelling (SEM), the authors identify the relationships among the antecedents (uncertainty, personal security and buying frequency), the mediating variable (transaction costs) and endogenous constructs (customer satisfaction and loyalty). The findings suggest that the satisfaction and loyalty of customers purchasing travel products over the Internet are affected negatively by transaction costs, which are determined by uncertainty, personal security and buying frequency. Moreover, a significantly negative relationship is identified between buying frequency and customer satisfaction.
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(2009) 'Determinants of International Students' Academic Performance: A Comparison between Chinese and Other International Students'. Journal of Studies in International Education, 14 (4), pp. 389-405.Full text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/7530/
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(2009) 'Effect of Seasonality Treatment on the Forecasting Performance of Tourism Demand Models'. Tourism Economics, 15 (4), pp. 693-708.Full text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/7527/
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(2009) 'Tourism Demand Modeling and Forecasting: A Review of Literature Related to Greater China'. Journal of China Tourism Research, 5 (1), pp. 2-40.Full text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/7529/
Abstract
Greater China, including Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, contributes significantly to both regional and global tourism developments. Empirical research on tourism demand modeling and forecasting has attracted increasing attention of scholars both within and beyond this region. One hundred eighty articles are identified that were published in both English‐ and Chinese‐language journals since the beginning of the 1990s. This study presents the largest scale of literature survey on tourism demand studies. Furthermore, this is the first attempt in tourism demand review studies that focuses exclusively on one geographic region and covers bilingual literature. Particular emphasis of this review is placed on research development, geographic focus, data type and frequency, measurement of tourism demand, modeling and forecasting techniques, demand elasticity analysis, forecasting exercises, and emerging research trends. Comparisons between the two bodies of literature published in two languages show a number of research gaps, such as the diversity and sophistication of the research methodology, rigor of the modeling and forecasting process, and theoretical foundations of demand analysis. Correspondingly, constructive recommendations are made to further advance tourism demand studies related to Greater China.
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(2008) 'An Assessment of Combining Tourism Demand Forecasts over Different Time Horizons'. Journal of Travel Research, 47 (2), pp. 197-207.Full text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/7591/
Abstract
This study investigates the performance of combination forecasts in comparison to individual forecasts. The empirical study focuses on the U. K. outbound leisure tourism demand for the United States. The combination forecasts are based on the competing forecasts generated from seven individual forecasting techniques. The three combination methods examined in this study are the simple average combination method, the variance-covariance combination method, and the discounted mean square forecast error method. The empirical results suggest that combination forecasts overall play an important role in the improvement of forecasting accuracy in that they are superior to the best of the individual forecasts over different forecasting horizons. The variance-covariance combination method turns out to be the best among the three combination methods. Another finding is that the encompassing test does not significantly contribute to the improved accuracy of combination forecasts. This study provides robust evidence for the efficiency of combination forecasts.
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(2008) 'Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research'. Tourism Management, 29 (2), pp. 203-220.Full text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/7523/
Abstract
This paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000. One of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles. In addition to the most popular time-series and econometric models, a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature. However, as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned, the study shows that there is no single model that consistently outperforms other models in all situations. Furthermore, this study identifies some new research directions, which include improving the forecasting accuracy through forecast combination; integrating both qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches, tourism cycles and seasonality analysis, events' impact assessment and risk forecasting. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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(2007) 'New Forecasting Models'. Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, 21 (4), pp. 3-13.Full text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/7592/
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(2006) 'Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Time Varying Parameter Error Correction Model'. Journal of Travel Research, 45 (2), pp. 175-185.Full text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/7598/
Abstract
The advantages of error correction models (ECMs) and time varying parameter (TVP) models have been discussed in the tourism forecasting literature. These models are now combined to give a new single-equation model, the time varying parameter error correction model (TVP-ECM), which is applied for the first time in the context of tourism demand forecasting. The empirical study focuses on tourism demand, measured by tourism spending per capita, by UK residents for 5 key Western European destinations. Based on the discussion of how the series considered related to most, the empirical results show that the TVP-ECM can be expected to outperform a number of alternative econometric and time series models in forecasting the demand for tourism. By measuring performance in terms of the accuracy of the forecasts of growth (rates of change) and showing that TVP-ECM performs very well for this as well as conventional assessment of the level of demand in this study, it is suggested that forecasters of tourism demand levels and growth rates can feel comfortable using TVP-ECM given that it is expected to perform well.
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(2005) 'Time Varying Parameter and Fixed Parameter Linear AIDS: An Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting'. International Journal of Forecasting, 22 (1), pp. 57-71.Full text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/7593/
Abstract
This study develops time varying parameter (TVP) linear almost ideal demand system (LAIDS) models in both long-run (LR) static and short-run error correction (EC) forms. The superiority of TVP-LAIDS models over the original static version and the fixed-parameter EC counterparts is examined in an empirical study of modelling and forecasting the demand for tourism in Western European destinations by UK residents. Both the long-run static and the short-run EC-LAIDS models are estimated using the Kalman filter algorithm. The evolution of demand elasticities over time is illustrated using the Kalman filter estimation results. The remarkably improved forecasting performance of the TVP-LAIDS relative to the fixed-parameter LAIDS is illustrated by a one-year- to four-years-ahead forecasting performance assessment. Both the unrestricted TVP-LR-LAIDS and TVP-EC-LAIDS outperform their fixed-parameter counterparts in the overall evaluation of demand level forecasts, and the TVP-EC-LAIDS is also ranked ahead of most other competitors when demand changes are concerned. (c) 2005 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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(2005) 'A residential survey on urban tourism impacts in Harbin'. China Tourism Research, 1 (1), pp. 116-129.Full text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/7528/
Abstract
Tourism is becoming more and more important in the global economy, and its longterm prosperity is desired by every tourism destination. Prosperity, however, cannot be achieved successfully without the involvement of those influenced by the industry, so, evaluating residents’ perceptions of tourism and involving them in as many aspects of planning and policymaking as possible are important steps in creating sustainability in tourism destination development. In attempting to fill in the research gaps in social impact analysis of urban tourism development in the Chinese context, a face-to-face survey was carried out to explore residents’ perceived impacts of tourism development in Harbin, a famous tourist destination in north-eastern China. The findings of this survey suggest that residents’ reaction towards local tourism development varies between different interest groups. Age, income and personal connections with local tourism were found to influence residents’ perceptions to some extent.
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(2005) 'Recent Development in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting'. Journal of Travel Research, 44 (1), pp. 82-99.Full text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/7525/
Abstract
Eighty-four post-1990 empirical studies of international tourism demand modeling and forecasting using econometric approaches are reviewed. New developments are identified, and it is shown that applications of advanced econometric methods improve the understanding of international tourism demand. An examination of the 22 studies that compare forecasting performance suggests that no single forecasting method can outperform the alternatives in all cases. The time-varying parameter (TVP) model and structural time-series model with causal variables, however, perform consistently well.
- . (2004) 'Regional Productivity Convergence in China'. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 2 (2), pp. 155-168.
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(2004) 'Modeling tourism demand: A dynamic linear AIDS approach'. Journal of Travel Research, 43 (2), pp. 141-150.Full text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/7597/
Abstract
The linear almost ideal demand system (LAIDS), in both static and dynamic forms, is examined in the context of international tourism demand. The superiority of the dynamic error correction LAIDS compared to its static counterpart is demonstrated in terms of both the acceptability of theoretical restrictions and forecasting accuracy, using a data set on the expenditure of United Kingdom tourists in twenty-two Western European countries. Both long-run and short-run demand elasticites are calculated. The expenditure elasticities show that travelling to most major destinations in Western Europe appears to be a luxury for UK tourists in the long run. The demand for travel to these destinations by UK tourists is also likely to be more price elastic in the long run than in the short run. The calculated cross-price elasticites suggest that the substitution/complementarity effects vary from destination to destination.
- . (2003) 'Modelling and forecasting the demand for Thai tourism'. Tourism Economics, 9 (4), pp. 363-387.
Conference papers
- . 'Forecasting Visitor Arrivals from the US to China: A Comparison of Model Performance'. Christchurch, New Zealand: CAUTHE Conference 2013
- . (2012) 'Development of AIDS Models for Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting, invited expert presentation,'. Tourism Research in Economic Environs and Society, Potchefstroom, South Africa: International Forecasting Workshop: Recent Developments and Best Practices in Tourism Forecasting
- . (2012) 'A Critical Review of Recent Developments in Tourism Economics'. Melbourne, Australia: CAUTHE Conference 2012
- . (2011) 'Modelling International Tourism Demand for the Caribbean: A Dynamic Panel Augmented-Gravity Approach'. Bournemouth: the 3rd International Association for Tourism Economics bi-annual conference
- . (2011) 'Evaluating Hong Kong’s Competitiveness as an International Tourism Destination from the Economic Policy Perspective'. Guildford: Advancing the Social Science of Tourism
- . (2010) 'Post-Disaster Tourist Behaviour: Motivation and Intention'. Tokyo, Japan: the Global Marketing Conference
- . (2010) 'Self- and Functional Congruence and Tourist Destination Choice'. Tokyo, Japan: the Global Marketing Conference,
- . (2010) 'Hong Kong Tourist Satisfaction Index'. Phuket, Thailand: 8th Asia-Pacific CHRIE Conference
- . (2010) 'Wine Tourism in China: Exploring Motivation and Behavioural Intention in an Emerging Market'. Beijing, China: China India Consumer Insights Conference
- . (2010) 'Tourism forecasting: the accuracy of alternative econometric models revisited'. San Diego, USA: 30th International Symposium on Forecasting
- . (2010) 'Forecasting Seasonal Tourism Demand Using Multivariate Structural Time Series Model'. San Diego, USA: 30th International Symposium on Forecasting
- . (2009) 'Turning Peripherality into an Advantage by Using Air Transport and Tourism Policies: The Case of Greece'. Chiang Mai, Thailand: the Second Biennial Conference of the International Association for Tourism Economics
- . (2009) 'Modeling Korean Domestic Casino Gaming Demand'. Chiang Mai, Thailand: Second Biennial Conference of the International Association for Tourism Economics
- . (2009) 'Assessing mainland Chinese tourists' satisfaction with Hong Kong using the Tourist Satisfaction Index'. Bournemouth, UK: 3rd Advances in Tourism Marketing Conference
- . (2009) 'Combination Forecasts of UK Outbound Tourism Demand'. Hong Kong: 29th International Symposium on Forecasting
- . (2009) 'Econometric Analysis of Tourism Demand Systems: A Time-Varying Perspective'. Hong Kong: 29th International Symposium on Forecasting
- . (2009) 'Time Varying Parameter Structural Time Series Models: An Application to Tourism Demand'. Hong Kong: 29th International Symposium on Forecasting
- . (2009) 'Post-Disaster Tourist Behaviour: Motivations of Visiting Sichuan after the Earthquake'. Chengdu, China: 6th China Tourism Forum
- . (2009) 'Analysis of Tourist Expenditures in Hong Kong Using Dynamic AIDS Model'. Lisbon, Portugal: 3rd Advances in Tourism Economics conference
- . (2008) 'Determinants of International Students’ Academic Performance: A Comparison between Chinese and Other International Students'. Huangshan, China: 5th China Tourism Forum
- . (2008) 'An Overview of Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting Studies related to Greater China'. Huangshan, China: 5th China Tourism Forum
- . (2008) 'Forecasting Accuracy of Time Varying Parameter Structural Time Series Models'. Nice, France: 28th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting
- . (2008) 'A System demand Model for Analysing Tourist expenditures'. Bournemouth, UK: Exploring Tourism II: Issues in PhD Research
- . (2008) 'Analysis of Tourist Expenditures in Hong Kong Using Dynamic AIDS Model'. Gold Coast, Australia: CAUTHE
- . (2007) 'Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: Does the Measure Matter?'. Nottingham, UK: 6th DeHaan Tourism Management Conference: The Economics of Tourism
- . (2007) 'Combination Forecasts of UK Outbound Tourism Demand'. Palma, Majorca: First Conference of the International Association for Tourism Economics
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(2007) 'An Investigation of the Relationship between Service Quality and Profitability in the UK Budget Hotel Industry'. The College of Business Administration and The Rosen College of Hospitality Management, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, USA: QUIS 10 The 10th International Research Symposium on Service Excellence in ManagementFull text is available at: http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/873/
- . (2007) 'Is the Time Varying Parameter Model Favourable for Tourism Demand Forecasting: Statistical Evidence'. Vila Nova de Santo André, Portugal: Advances in Tourism Economics
- . (2007) 'Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: how should demand be measured?'. Nottingham Univ Business Sch, Nottingham, ENGLAND: 6th DeHaan Tourism Management Conference
- . (2006) 'Influences of Joint-venture Ownership on Human Resource Development Practices in China’s Hotels'. Hong Kong, China: 3rd China Tourism Forum
- . (2006) 'Statistical Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy: An Application to Forecasting Tourism Demand'. Beijing, China: Thailand, Tourism and the New Asia: Implications for Research, Policy and Practice
- . (2005) 'Validity of the Zonal Travel Cost Model with Travel Time Using GIS as a Proxy of Travel Cost'. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: the Third Asia Pacific CHRIE Conference
- . (2005) 'Forecasting International Tourism Demand Using the Time Varying Parameter Error Correction Model'. Évora, Portugal: Theoretical Advances in Tourism Economics
- . (2003) 'Modelling UK Outbound Tourism Demand Using EC-LAIDS Models'. Melbourne, Australia: Managing Tourism in the Global Economy
- . (2003) 'Modelling Tourism Demand: A Dynamic Linear AIDS Approach'. Paphos, Cyprus: Tourism Modelling and Competitiveness
- . (2003) 'Modelling and Forecasting Demand for Thai Tourism'. Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research: Proceedings of the conference, Las Vegas, USA: the 8th Annual Graduate Education and Graduate Student Research Conference in Hospitality and Tourism 8, pp. 393-396.
- . (2002) 'Econometric Analysis and Forecasts of International Tourism Demand in Thailand'. Hong Kong: the Fifth Biennial Conference: Tourism in Asia: Development, Marketing and Sustainability
Books
- . (2009) The Advanced Econometrics of Tourism Demand. Routledge: London
Book chapters
- . (2012) 'Statistical Testing Techniques'. in Dwyer L, Gill A, Seetaram N (eds.) Handbook of Research Methods in Tourism Edward Elgar Publishing Article number 1 , pp. 13-30.
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(2012) 'Tourism Forecasting Using Econometric Models'. in Buhalis D, Costa C (eds.) European Tourism Planning and Organisation Systems
[ Status: Accepted ] - . (2009) 'Is the Time Varying Parameter Model Favourable for Tourism Demand Forecasting? Statistical Evidence'. in Matias Á, Nijkamp P, Neto P (eds.) Advances in Tourism Economics: New Developments Heidelberg : Physica-Verlag , pp. 107-120.
- . (2008) 'The Nature of Leisure Travel Demand'. in Graham A, Papatheodorou A, Forsyth P (eds.) Aviation and Tourism: Implications for Leisure Travel Ashgate: Aldershot , pp. 7-20.
- . (2006) 'Quantitative Techniques for Tourism Competition Analysis'. in Papatheodorou A (ed.) Corporate rivalry and market power IB Tauris: London , pp. 35-53.
- . (2006) 'Forecasting Tourism Demand Using Econometric Models'. in Buhalis D, Costa C (eds.) Tourism management dynamics: Trends, Management and Tools Butterworth-Heinemann: Oxford , pp. 219-228.
Teaching
Undergraduate:
• Business of Tourism
• Business Environment
• Tourism Policy and Development
• Travel and Transport
• International Tourism Destinations
Postgraduate:
• Tourism Social Science
• Tourism Management
Departmental Duties
Programme Leader for:
Activities
Professional Bodies
• Vice president (Western Europe) of the International Tourism Studies Association (ITSA)
• Executive Committee Member of the International Association for Tourism Economics (IATE)
• Member of Tourism Society
• Member of the Chinese Economics Association in the UK
Journal Engagement
• Regional Editor (Europe) of Journal of China Tourism Research
• Resource Editor of Annals of Tourism Research
• Associate Editor of Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research
• Editorial Board Member of Tourism Management
• Editorial Board Member of Journal of Travel Research
• Editorial Board Member of Tourism Economics
• Editorial Board Member of Tourism and Hospitality Research
