Dr. Alex Mandilaras' article in The Conversation
The media and public are struggling to understand the impact of the move by credit rating agency Moody’s to down grade the UK from its triple A status. Here Dr Alex Mandilaras, Senior Lecturer in Economics, provides a clear assessment of the implications.
Alex's research agenda focuses on international finance. On the main, he works on issues related to the balance of payments. He has published -or is currently working- on the following topics:
The modules Alex is teaching in 2017-18 are:
All relevant teaching materials are available to students on SurreyLearn.
Alex's departmental duties for 2017-18 are:
Alex is currently external examiner at the University of Bradford. He has also served as external examiner at the University of Essex and the University of London, Imperial College.
Alex has supervised five PhD students to successful completion:
He has also been involved in the supervision of other PhD students and has examined PhD theses at the University of Bradford (2014), the University of Nottingham (2012) and the University of Surrey (2008).
In 2011 Alex was awarded a Small Research Grant by the British Academy for a project titled “The Stability of Exchange Rate Regimes”. Sum awarded: £7,448. With H. Popper.
A new measure of monetary sovereignty
A new measure of international macroeconomic stability
The above variables in stacked form
For details see here (opens external link)
Has the global economic crisis resulted in countries shifting their exchange rate regimes and, if so, in what way? Focusing on the relevant period of 2008-12, and using the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER) classification of exchange rate regimes and database, we calculate exchange rate regime transition probabilities and test their statistical significance. Even though there is some evidence of state de- pendence, in the sense that transitions are relatively infrequent, we do find that these are significant, especially in the direction of fixity. Our testing procedure employs the Wilson (1927) statistic, which is appropriate for draw- ing inference based on relatively rare events. By examining all transitions in detail, we also find further evidence that countries that shift often flip back to their previous regime.
This paper uses the simple geometry of the classic, open-economy trilemma to introduce a new gauge of the stability of international macroeconomic arrangements. The new stability gauge reflects the simultaneity of a country's choices of exchange rate fixity, financial openness, and monetary sovereignty. So, the new gauge is bounded and correspondingly non-Gaussian. We use the new stability gauge in nonlinear panel estimates to examine the post-Bretton Woods period, and we find that trilemma policy stability is linked to official holdings of foreign exchange reserves in low income countries. We also find that the combination of fixed exchange rates and financial market openness is the most stable arrangement within the trilemma; and middle-income countries have less stable trilemma arrangements than either low or high-income countries. The paper also characterizes international macroeconomic arrangements in terms of their semblance to definitive policy archetypes; and, it uses the trilemma constraint to provide a new gauge of monetary sovereignty.
Some commentators have claimed that there is a growing Beijing Consensus among emerging and developing economies concerning the merits of China's economic policies. Within an analytical framework provided by the well known international policy trilemma, this paper investigates the empirical evidence concerning this claim with specific reference to the adoption of international macroeconomic policies. We find that there are substantial differences between what China does and what is done in other emerging and developing economies. While we discover some regional and inter-temporal variations, there seems to be little or no support for the existence of a Beijing Consensus. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.
A fature of the late 1990s was the accumulation of International reserves in many countries. Against the background of this phenomenon, in what follows we investigate the following questions: how widely has the tendency to accumulate reserves been seen? Does the incidence of a currency crisis increase the subsequent demand for reserves? Do countries make choices between different combinations of exchange rate regime and reserve holding? Does an arrangement with the IMF encourage countries subsequently to build up reserves more than they otherwise would have done? Do different patterns emerge depending upon the measure of reserves used? In addressing the above questions, we find significant support for the 'Mrs. Machlup's Wardrobe Theory' of international reserves, which purports that irrespective of the amount of reserves countries have accumulated, they continue to add to their stock. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.
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Expiry Date: Friday 15 April 2011 15:37:42
Assembly date: Fri Feb 23 00:10:24 GMT 2018
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