Dr Alex Mandilaras

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Research Interests

Alex's research agenda focuses on international finance. On the main, he works on issues related to the balance of payments. He has published -or is currently working- on the following topics:

  • International macro policy trilemma
  • Exchange rate regimes
  • Exchange rates modelling
  • Currency crises and contagion
  • International reserves
  • Capital flows 
  • Public debt management

Research Collaborations

Graham Bird, Helen Popper, Paul Levine and Stefan Straetmans


The modules Alex is teaching in 2017-18 are:

  • Derivatives Markets (level 3)
  • Theory of Finance (MSc)

All relevant teaching materials are available to students on SurreyLearn.

Departmental Duties

Alex's departmental duties for 2017-18 are:

  • MSc Programme Leader


Alex is currently external examiner at the University of Bradford. He has also served as external examiner at the University of Essex and the University of London, Imperial College.

PhD Supervision, Examinations & Funding

Alex has supervised five PhD students to successful completion: 

  • Mahama Barwah, January 2014, The international macroeconomic trilemma in emerging economies
  • Shumi Shafiai, July 2013, Excess returns, volatility and momentum in the London Stock Exchange
  • Noureen Adnan, February 2012, Financial development, economic growth and crises 
  • Rong Huang, January 2011, Business cycle models of East and Southeast Asia
  • Alexis Cruz, May 2007, Exchange rate regimes, fiscal stance and currency crises

He has also been involved in the supervision of other PhD students and has examined PhD theses at the University of Bradford (2014), the University of Nottingham (2012) and the University of Surrey (2008).

In 2011 Alex was awarded a Small Research Grant by the British Academy for a project titled “The Stability of Exchange Rate Regimes”. Sum awarded: £7,448. With H. Popper.


A new measure of monetary sovereignty 

A new measure of international macroeconomic stability 

The above variables in stacked form 

For details see here (opens external link)

Contact Me

Phone: 01483 68 2768

Find me on campus
Room: 12 AD 00

My office hours

Mondays 2:00pm - 3:00pm

Wednesdays 12:00noon - 1:00pm

RePEc web page: download papers


Journal articles

  • Mandilaras A. (2015) 'The International Policy Trilemma in the Post-Bretton Woods Era'. Elsevier Journal of Macroeconomics, 44, pp. 18-32.
  • Bird G, Mandilaras A. (2015) 'Transitions in exchange rate regimes in the aftermath of the global economic crisis'. Applied Economics Letters, 22 (7), pp. 567-571.
  • Bird GR, Mandilaras A . (2014) 'Transitions in Exchange Rate Regimes in the Aftermath of the Global Economic Crisis'. Taylor & Francis Applied Economics Letters, 22 (7), pp. 567-571.


    Has the global economic crisis resulted in countries shifting their exchange rate regimes and, if so, in what way? Focusing on the relevant period of 2008-12, and using the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER) classification of exchange rate regimes and database, we calculate exchange rate regime transition probabilities and test their statistical significance. Even though there is some evidence of state de- pendence, in the sense that transitions are relatively infrequent, we do find that these are significant, especially in the direction of fixity. Our testing procedure employs the Wilson (1927) statistic, which is appropriate for draw- ing inference based on relatively rare events. By examining all transitions in detail, we also find further evidence that countries that shift often flip back to their previous regime.

  • Popper, H, Mandilaras A, Bird, G . (2013) 'Trilemma Stability and International Macroeconomic Archetypes'. European Economic Review, 64, pp. 181-193.


    This paper uses the simple geometry of the classic, open-economy trilemma to introduce a new gauge of the stability of international macroeconomic arrangements. The new stability gauge reflects the simultaneity of a country's choices of exchange rate fixity, financial openness, and monetary sovereignty. So, the new gauge is bounded and correspondingly non-Gaussian. We use the new stability gauge in nonlinear panel estimates to examine the post-Bretton Woods period, and we find that trilemma policy stability is linked to official holdings of foreign exchange reserves in low income countries. We also find that the combination of fixed exchange rates and financial market openness is the most stable arrangement within the trilemma; and middle-income countries have less stable trilemma arrangements than either low or high-income countries. The paper also characterizes international macroeconomic arrangements in terms of their semblance to definitive policy archetypes; and, it uses the trilemma constraint to provide a new gauge of monetary sovereignty.

  • Bird G, Mandilaras A. (2013) 'Fiscal imbalances and output crises in Europe: Will the fiscal compact help or hinder?'. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 16 (1), pp. 1-16.
  • Bird G, Mandilaras A, Popper H. (2012) 'Is there a Beijing consensus on international macroeconomic policy?'. Elsevier World Development, 40 (10), pp. 1933-1943.


    Some commentators have claimed that there is a growing Beijing Consensus among emerging and developing economies concerning the merits of China's economic policies. Within an analytical framework provided by the well known international policy trilemma, this paper investigates the empirical evidence concerning this claim with specific reference to the adoption of international macroeconomic policies. We find that there are substantial differences between what China does and what is done in other emerging and developing economies. While we discover some regional and inter-temporal variations, there seems to be little or no support for the existence of a Beijing Consensus. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

  • Mandilaras A, Bird G. (2011) 'Once Bitten: The Effects of IMF Programs on Subsequent Reserve Behaviour'. Review of Development Economics, 15 (2), pp. 264-278.
  • Mandilaras A, Bird G. (2010) 'A Markov switching analysis of contagion in the EMS'. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29 (6), pp. 1062-1075.
  • Mandilaras A, Popper H. (2009) 'Capital flows, capitalization, and openness in emerging East Asian economies'. WILEY-BLACKWELL Review of International Economics, 17 (4), pp. 734-750.
  • Arpac O, Bird G, Mandilaras A. (2008) 'Stop interrupting: An empirical analysis of the implementation of IMF programs'. PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD WORLD DEVELOPMENT, 36 (9), pp. 1493-1513.
  • Bird G, Mandilaras A. (2008) 'Revisiting Mrs. Machlup's wardrobe: The accumulation of international reserves, 1992-2001'. Applied Economics Letters, 17 (5), pp. 467-471.


    A fature of the late 1990s was the accumulation of International reserves in many countries. Against the background of this phenomenon, in what follows we investigate the following questions: how widely has the tendency to accumulate reserves been seen? Does the incidence of a currency crisis increase the subsequent demand for reserves? Do countries make choices between different combinations of exchange rate regime and reserve holding? Does an arrangement with the IMF encourage countries subsequently to build up reserves more than they otherwise would have done? Do different patterns emerge depending upon the measure of reserves used? In addressing the above questions, we find significant support for the 'Mrs. Machlup's Wardrobe Theory' of international reserves, which purports that irrespective of the amount of reserves countries have accumulated, they continue to add to their stock. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

  • Levine P, Mandilaras A, Wang J. (2008) 'Public debt maturity and currency crises'. BLACKWELL PUBLISHING SCOT J POLIT ECON, 55 (1), pp. 79-106.
  • Mandilaras A, Bird G. (2008) 'Foreign exchange pressures in Latin America: Does debt matter?'. Journal of International Development, 20 (5), pp. 613-627.
  • Mandilaras A, Bird G. (2007) 'Foreign exchange markets in South-East Asia 1990-2004: An empirical analysis of spillovers during crisis and non-crisis periods'. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 18 (1), pp. 41-57.
  • Bird G, Mandilaras A. (2006) 'Regional heterogeneity in the relationship between fiscal imbalances and foreign exchange market pressure'. PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD WORLD DEVELOPMENT, 34 (7), pp. 1171-1181.
  • Bird G, Mandilaras A. (2005) 'Reserve Accumulation in Asia'. World Economics Journal, 6 (1), pp. 85-99.
  • Mandilaras A. (2004) 'Industrial Placement and Degree Performance: Evidence from a British Higher Institution'. International Review of Economics Education, 3 (1), pp. 39-51.
  • Bird G, Mandilaras A. (2003) 'Viral spiral? Contagion, interdependence and fundamentals in Latin America'. New Economy, 10 (3), pp. 181-186.

Conference papers

  • Mandilaras A, Levine P. (2001) 'Public debt and inflation: The role of inflation-sensitive instruments'. WILEY-BLACKWELL MANCHESTER SCHOOL, S BANK UNIV, LONDON, ENGLAND: Annual Conference of the Money-Macro-and-Finance-Group 69, pp. 1-21.

Scholarly editions

  • Mandilaras A, Popper H. (2007) What Macroeconomic Conditions Best Explain Southeast Asian Capital Flows?.

Working Papers

  • Popper H, Mandilaras A, Bird G. (2011) Trilemma Stability and International Macroeconomic Archetypes in Developing Economies. Article number 0311

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