Commentary: Could Andy Burnham shift the tax burden from earnings to wealth?

“Burnham has offered little detail on tax policy, having never served as Chancellor or Shadow Chancellor. However, he has favoured shifting the burden from income towards wealth. This could mean further increases in Capital Gains Tax, with rates moving closer to income tax rates or even the two systems being aligned. Business Asset Disposal Relief, which has increased from 10% before 2025 to 18% this year, could also rise above 20%.

“Inheritance Tax may be expanded or replaced by a tax linked to property, land or wider wealth. Council tax could also be overhauled. Changes might take effect immediately after the Autumn Budget, prompting advisers to suggest that people considering asset sales act sooner. Higher wealth-tax revenues could fund reductions in taxes on earnings. Burnham may end fiscal drag by increasing the currently frozen personal allowance and higher-rate income tax threshold, currently £12,570 and £50,270. This would increase disposable income for many workers.

“Employers’ National Insurance could also be reviewed after the rate rose to 15% and the payment threshold fell to £5,000 in 2025. Reversing these changes could support recruitment. Burnham has previously backed a 10% VAT rate for hospitality, although defining qualifying services would be complex legal matter and will no doubt create disputes. His focus appears to have shifted towards business rates reform instead.

“Overall, Burnham appears likely to move more of the tax burden from earnings to accumulated wealth, using additional revenue to ease pressure on workers and businesses. The scale and timing remain uncertain, but the next session of Parliament could bring a significant rebalancing of the UK tax system.”