Commentary: The Autumn Budget that could break public patience

"It’s not hyperbole to suggest that the upcoming 26 November Budget is the most anticipated in recent memory. Public popularity for the Labour government is far lower than can even be explained by the usual dip in support that occurs to most governments mid-term.

"Most of the pre-budget speculation has focused on increases in personal taxes, specifically income tax. No Chancellor has raised the basic rate of income tax since Denis Healey in 1975, and there’s a good reason for that – such a move would spark immediately unpopularity with the public, but the benefits of this move (increased government revenue, meaning possible improved public services) may not be apparent to the public for a long term, not even when this parliamentary term ends in 2029.

"Another approach the Chancellor may take is to protect those on lower incomes from any tax hikes by increasing the burden on higher earners. But in this period of increasing costs of living, what defines a higher earner? We’ve seen news reports about how the Treasury defines ‘working people’ as those earning £45,000 or less in a year. That means roughly 30% of full-time employees in the UK are earning more than this definition, and many of them would argue that a salary just above this amount does not go far currently, with many essential items becoming more expensive and a freeze in the upper income tax rate threshold meaning more and more people slip into the 40% bracket.

"It’s very difficult to see how the Chancellor can produce a Budget that won’t pass without major controversy."