Commentary: Why a ‘Blue tsunami’ at the midterms may not spell the end of Trump’s influence

“A Blue tsunami has been foretold, a biblical reckoning for the Trump administration. The US President is not someone who commonly feels the weight of cosmic justice. Doomsday for the Trump era may be hopium, but there are clear indications that he will end the cycle as his least favourite noun: loser.

“Losing in this instance, for it to really matter, means loss of both House and Senate, the latter requiring larger margins to traverse the vice president and right-wing Democrats like John Fetterman, who has cast decisive votes in favour of Trump on efforts like Iran war power restrictions.

“That such an outcome effectively bookends the Trump era rests on two assumptions. First, that control of the legislature would mean a significant curtailment to his capacity to ‘do things’, despite an administration famous for avoiding procedural norms balancing executive power. We can assume he will continue his inclination to govern by executive order in a domestic context. For the outside world, the US legislature has proven ineffective in wresting control over major foreign policy decisions from the executive, despite its constitutional authority.

“Secondly, there is an assumption that MAGA will be neutered more broadly by a curtailment of Trump’s institutional authority. Even if Trump does end up a loser, he will have an outsized influence on the selection of his successor, who will almost certainly be of the MAGA stable and require his anointment. More importantly, as per a recent report by Americans for Tax Fairness PAC, 170 billionaire families spent 1.7 billion on this midterm cycle, with 1.2 billion going to Republican candidates. The material capacity of a reactionary oligarchy will continue beyond Trump’s near-term political fortunes.

“How will loss be viewed by a political bloc who increasingly question the legitimacy of opposition? Time will tell.”