Why millions of Europeans vote one way nationally — and the opposite in Brussels, according to new study

In a study published in Politics and Governance, researchers argue that this behaviour is not random and that it is a strategic response when voters feel their usual party does not fully reflect their beliefs. 

At the heart of this is a mismatch between what voters think and what their party stands for. The strongest driver remains traditional left-versus-right ideology. When people feel out of step with their party on core economic or social issues, they are far more likely to switch. 

The researchers also show that when political parties put Europe front and centre in their messaging, voters who disagree with their party’s stance on the EU are much more likely to jump ship. In these moments, support tends to shift towards Eurosceptic parties, giving them a clear advantage.  

Researchers analysed data from around 24,000 voters across more than 20 European countries, combining survey data with expert assessments of party positions. They compared how closely voters’ views aligned with their chosen party and tracked whether they switched their vote between national and European elections.

The findings show that European elections have become a space where voters correct perceived gaps in representation. Rather than simply echoing national politics, these elections allow people to express views that might not be fully captured by their usual party choice. 

While the study focuses on European Parliament elections, researchers say similar patterns are likely to appear in other multi-level political systems, including in the UK, where voters often make different choices in local, devolved and general elections.

The research suggests that what has often been dismissed as voter volatility is actually something more meaningful: a system where citizens actively fine-tune their representation across different levels of power. 

Note to editors

ENDS 

• Interview availability: Dr Roula Nezi is available for interview 
• The full study has been published in Politics and Governance