Commentary: Interim UK-US trade deal lacks substance

"Reading the details, the question really is why conclude this interim deal in the first place? This deal is very small in economic terms and in previous administrations would not have been worthy of an oval office announcement. It gives UK reduced tariffs on 100,000 cars and the US some market access to the UK; but it is not a comprehensive agreement which has been touted as possible in recent years. 

"It doesn’t reset the American tariffs to before Trump was elected. Rather, this was a rushed political act. Both sides need a deal; Starmer needs wins after last week’s electoral defeat. Trump needs to signal to markets he can negotiate the deals he’s promises. This was an easy one to announce on V-E day, the most poignant day to reinforce the special relationship. But it will serve neither purpose: the deal gives away British advantages easily and allows the 10% base tariff to stay; having reduced British tariffs to 1.8%, the British have little else to give the Americans in a future comprehensive free trade deal. 

"So, the larger deal markets want might be further away, not closer as there is less to negotiate over. Moreover, it seems like some of the details may conflict with the British goals of a larger EU trade deal: for example, details on beef exports are seemingly still to be worked out. American meat products have been generally excluded from the UK because of phytosanitary regulations and a need to comply with EU regulations in Northern Ireland. The rushed nature the interim deal could well be moving the UK away from the kind of larger agreements we want and need to save our economy from continued damage. 

"Moreover, the continued uncertainty of not achieving free trade agreements will be reinforced with continued declines in business investment and consumer activity."