Commentary: The Strait of Hormuz is now “permanently weaponised” according to expert

"The quiet around US-Iran tensions should not be mistaken for progress. In fact, a little educated pessimism may be useful here.

Deals with Iran have historically taken months to negotiate, partly because every layer of the Iranian regime needs to be brought along. That process is likely to be even slower now, given the loss of several moderate voices within Iran.

The silence may also suggest a harder truth: the US may already know Iran cannot be economically broken quickly. There is a theoretical tipping point where Iran’s economy could be pushed into serious crisis, but that requires sustained, targeted pressure over many months. It cannot be achieved through weekly policy shifts or headline-driven moves.

History also shows that Iran has long played the US and Russia against each other. Unless Russia is willing to cooperate, Iran can still access economic support for the things it lacks. At present, Moscow has little incentive to help Washington, particularly while the war in Ukraine continues.

The Strait of Hormuz now also appears to be permanently weaponised. American officials have long understood how dangerous this waterway is, which is one reason the US has historically avoided direct escalation with Iran. Trump seems to have underestimated that risk.

If the US moves towards a pragmatic deal, Israel may well see that as a betrayal. But Israel is not America’s only ally in the region. The Middle East is made up of overlapping alliances, each with different priorities on Iran. There are even divisions within individual countries. That makes the situation volatile.

The bigger point is this: economic warfare is becoming more effective, but it is also slow, complex and deeply unstable."