Therme Group and University of Surrey, supported by Innovate UK create new tool to measure true climate impact of flying
Many carbon calculators used by airlines and travel companies are significantly underestimating the real climate damage caused by air travel, according to new research from Therme Group and the University of Surrey, supported by Innovate UK.
The study, published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment, introduces the Air Travel Passenger Dynamic Emissions Calculator (ATP-DEC), which researchers say marks a milestone in climate transparency for aviation.
ATP-DEC is the first peer-reviewed calculator to combine full life-cycle emissions, non-CO₂ warming effects and real flight-path data to produce an accurate, science-based picture of aviation’s total climate footprint. It offers a new benchmark for governments, airlines, booking platforms and passengers who need reliable data to decarbonise air travel and meet global sustainability targets.
Therme Group co-founded and initiated this project because the transition to a positive economy must be grounded in scientific accuracy. The Nature publication validates that ATP-DEC sets a new global standard for measuring aviation emissions. It’s not just a calculator – it’s a system for truth and accountability. Together with our academic and innovation partners, we are already extending this approach to other parts of the visitor economy – spa, accommodation, food and beverage, and attraction parks – ensuring that every travel experience can become part of the decarbonisation solution.Dr Robert Hanea, Founder and CEO of Therme Group
By combining life-cycle analysis with real-world flight data, ATP-DEC will provide regulators, airlines and passengers with far more accurate and transparent information on carbon disclosure, helping align the aviation industry with climate targets and the newest regulations in the EU.Eduard Goean, Visiting Professor at the University of Surrey and VP of Therme Group, a funding body for this research project
Benchmark tests across more than 30,000 flights show that ATP-DEC’s estimates closely match actual post-flight data, compared with substantial under-reporting by leading calculators. On some long-haul routes, standard methods understated per-passenger emissions by tens of thousands of tonnes in a single year. For example, the closure of Russian airspace means many long-haul flights between Europe and Asia take detours of thousands of kilometres, consuming more fuel and producing more emissions. ATP-DEC captures this operational variation, while existing static calculators cannot.
This early output from a Knowledge Transfer Partnership marks a significant step towards empowering the aviation sector and its passengers to make informed, sustainable choices. By providing a robust, transparent carbon footprint calculator with life-cycle coverage, it bridges the gap between scientific insight and practical application, helping industry and travellers alike to reduce emissions and drive meaningful change. The partnership is highly effective, embracing the KTP model, and I look forward to supporting their efforts to extend this work across the visitor economy.Dr Shona Campbell, Senior Knowledge Transfer Adviser at Innovate UK Business Connect
The publication of ATP-DEC is the first milestone in a broader research and innovation programme between Therme Group and the University of Surrey, co-funded by UKRI through Innovate UK. Building on this model, the partnership is developing a suite of sector-specific dynamic emissions calculators – SPA-DEC (already completed), HTL-DEC and F&B-DEC – to accelerate decarbonisation across the global visitor economy.
The research team included Professor Jhuma Sadhukhan, Dr Jonathan Chenoweth, Professor Xavier Font, Finn McFall, Professor Dabo Guan, Visiting Professor Eduard Goean and Dr Ionut Corduneanu.
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Note to editors
Full research publication: Nature Communications Earth & Environment – “Air Travel Passenger Dynamic Emissions Calculator (ATP-DEC): Towards a true accounting of aviation climate impacts”
This KTP project was co-funded by UKRI through Innovate UK.
About Therme Group
Therme Group is a global wellbeing pioneer and sustainability leader, committed to developing solutions that unite wellbeing, nature and technology.
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