Dr Chloe Bracegirdle

Intergroup contact has been promoted as a powerful means to improve intergroup relations, but causal evidence for the effectiveness of contact in affecting outgroup attitudes is scarce. One important and increasingly used approach to estimate causal effects in contact research relies on naturalistic longitudinal survey data. However, causal inference based on longitudinal data depends strongly on the control of (un)observed confounders. The cross-lagged panel model (CLPM), commonly used in contact research, is an analytical model that has been criticised for biasing causal inference by insufficiently accounting for unobserved confounders, and advanced statistical models have been proposed, including the full-forward (FF-CLPM) and random-intercept CLPM (RI-CLPM). To explore the extent of potential bias between the three models introduced by the varying level of control for unobserved confounders, we investigated the robustness of longitudinal positive and negative contact-attitude effects in a systematic re-analysis using 31 datasets from 21 published studies (N = 33,348). Using internal meta-analysis, we found substantial discrepancies between the models: While the CLPM provided significant longitudinal effects of both non-valenced/positive and negative intergroup contact on outgroup attitudes, analytical models that more strongly controlled for the effects of unobserved confounders found no such longitudinal evidence (FF-CLPM and RI-CLPM), but substantial between-person correlations which cannot be causally interpreted (RI-CLPM). Thus, the potential of intergroup contact to longitudinally affect outgroup attitudes in naturalistic survey data remains questionable. We discuss theoretical and methodological implications of these results and outline potential routes for future research to develop a more robust and informative longitudinal (contact) research.

Religious decline, often observed among North American Christian youth, may not apply universally. We examined this and whether religiosity is associated with well‐being, risk behavior, cultural values, and acculturation among 4080 Muslim and Christian adolescents aged 15–22 in Germany. Utilizing seven waves from the CILS4EU project and a person‐oriented analytical approach, we identified different religious trajectories for Muslim (58% high, 31% low, 11% increasing), immigrant‐origin Christian (68% low, 32% medium), and non‐immigrant Christian (74% low, 17% decreasing, 9% medium) youth. High and medium trajectories were associated with greater well‐being, lower risk behavior, more conservative attitudes, and less sociocultural integration. To fully understand religious development, we must consider diverse national contexts and groups, employing long‐term perspectives and person‐centered analyses.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has had devastating effects on the Ukrainian population and the global economy, environment, and political order. However, little is known about the psychological states surrounding the outbreak of war, particularly the mental well-being of individuals outside Ukraine. Here, we present a longitudinal experience-sampling study of a convenience sample from 17 European countries (total participants = 1,341, total assessments = 44,894, countries with >100 participants = 5) that allows us to track well-being levels across countries during the weeks surrounding the outbreak of war. Our data show a significant decline in well-being on the day of the Russian invasion. Recovery over the following weeks was associated with an individual's personality but was not statistically significantly associated with their age, gender, subjective social status, and political orientation. In general, well-being was lower on days when the war was more salient on social media. Our results demonstrate the need to consider the psychological implications of the Russo-Ukrainian war next to its humanitarian, economic, and ecological consequences.

We present a global experience-sampling method (ESM) study aimed at describing, predicting, and understanding individual differences in well-being during times of crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This international ESM study is a collaborative effort of over 60 interdisciplinary researchers from around the world in the "Coping with Corona" (CoCo) project. The study comprises trait-, state-, and daily-level data of 7490 participants from over 20 countries (total ESM measurements = 207,263; total daily measurements = 73,295) collected between October 2021 and August 2022. We provide a brief overview of the theoretical background and aims of the study, present the applied methods (including a description of the study design, data collection procedures, data cleaning, and final sample), and discuss exemplary research questions to which these data can be applied. We end by inviting collaborations on the CoCo dataset.

Friendships with members of our own group (ingroup) and other groups (outgroups) shape our attitudes toward outgroups. Research on intergroup contact has shown that the numbers of outgroup and ingroup friends we have influence our outgroup attitudes, whereas research on socialization has shown that the attitudes held by our friends influence our outgroup attitudes. Past research, however, examined these processes in isolation, which precludes discerning whether having friends, or the attitudes held by our friends, are both important in shaping our outgroup attitudes, and, if so, which is more important. To disentangle these effects, we conducted a 5-wave social network study in 2 ethnically diverse schools (N = 1,170 students). By applying a novel longitudinal coevolution model, we were able to separate the effects of having ingroup and outgroup friends (contact effects), and the effects of those friends' attitudes (socialization effects), on individuals' outgroup attitudes, while controlling for friendship selection processes. In so doing, we found that it is principally the attitudes of ingroup friends-not outgroup friends' attitudes or having ingroup and outgroup friends alone-that predict individuals' outgroup attitudes. Our findings have important theoretical implications, as we demonstrate that combining the divergent approaches of intergroup contact and socialization enables us to better understand outgroup attitude development. Our findings also have practical implications, as we show that, even in diverse environments, individuals rely primarily on friends from their own group to inform their attitudes toward other groups.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in substantial disruptions to the daily lives of young people. Yet knowledge is lacking about changes in mental well-being among young adults, whether those from ethnic minorities were more adversely impacted by the pandemic than the ethnic majority, and the extent to which pandemic-related stressors contributed to any declines in mental well-being. Methods We draw on nationally representative German CILS4COVID data, collected early in the pandemic (N = 3517, M-age = 25). Respondents provided information on mental well-being (psychosomatic complaints, anxiety, depression, life satisfaction) and exposure to pandemic-related stressors (financial worries, health worries, discrimination, contact with COVID-19). Responses on mental well-being were matched to responses from two pre-pandemic waves. Individual fixed effects regressions examined ethnic group differences in changes in mental well-being prior to, and at the early stage of, the pandemic. Path analysis tested the role of pandemic-related stressors in declines in mental well-being. Results Overall, young adults' mental well-being had improved at the pandemic assessment compared to pre-pandemic assessments, and few ethnic group differences in changes were found. However, greater pandemic-related stressors were associated with worsened mental well-being at the pandemic assessment. Among Asian minorities, indirect effects were found on anxiety via health worries, and on depression via health worries and discrimination. For Turkish, Middle Eastern and African minorities, indirect effects on anxiety and depression were found via health worries. Conclusions We did not find widespread declines in mental well-being among young adults at the early stage of the pandemic, and changes in mental well-being prior to and at the early stage of the pandemic were mostly similar across ethnic German and minority groups. Nevertheless, pandemic-related stressors posed risks for young adults' mental well-being, particularly increased discrimination and health worries among Asian minorities, and health worries among Turkish, Middle Eastern and African minorities.

Very little is known about how long-term well-being trajectories vary across populations. Using data from 45,160 adults in New Zealand (62% women, Mage = 41 years) surveyed annually over 13 years, we identified latent trajectories for belongingness, social support, self-esteem, and life satisfaction. Through a group-based trajectory modeling approach, we found five trajectory groups: low (3%-5%), moderate (11%-17%), moderate-high (29%-32%), high (35%-45%), and very high (11%-20%) well-being. While most individuals showed minimal changes, those with initially low well-being experienced the greatest change, in the direction of decreasing well-being over time. Individuals with higher education were more likely to follow higher well-being trajectories. Similarly, women were more likely to follow higher well-being trajectories, except for self-esteem, where men tended to score higher over time. Lastly, age and ethnicity demonstrated more complex patterns. These findings highlight the importance of acknowledging long-term heterogeneity in well-being trajectories and emphasize the need for targeted preventive mental health interventions, particularly for individuals who begin with lower well-being levels.

The prolific expansion of intergroup contact research has established that intergroup interactions are tightly linked to social integration. In this review, recent technological and statistical innovations with the potential to advance this body of research are presented. First, concerns over the validity of longitudinal models are discussed before innovative analytical techniques are introduced that explore change over time. Next, intensive repeated measure designs, such as experience sampling approaches, are introduced as opportunities to investigate the day-to-day lives of individuals. Virtual reality technology is then presented as another means to examine naturalistic contact experiences in the laboratory, offering researchers an unrivaled capacity to induce uncommon contact experiences. Finally, we propose that additional sources of contextual data, such as competing media messages, could extend these models in innovative ways by accounting for the time and place surrounding intergroup contact. Similarly, longitudinal social network analysis can provide additional contextual information by considering the broader network environment in which contact occurs. We describe these innovations with the intention of spurring future research that will advance our understanding of how intergroup contact can be used to improve our societies. Thus, we conclude with a discussion on how to bridge divides between researchers and practitioners.

According to intergroup contact theory, meaningful interactions between members of different social identity groups can lead to decreases in prejudice. However, the literature on intergroup contact has generally emphasized contact-based interventions that involve positive contact experiences in highly controlled environments like research laboratories or classrooms, or infrequent intimate intergroup contact experiences, like intergroup friendships. In this Perspective, we review the literature on how intergroup contact manifests in everyday settings, which challenges established views that contact is readily available, positive and leads to consistently positive within-person changes. We describe how variations in contact valence and environmental affordances for self-selection influence individual- and macro-level segregation dynamics, which create conditions for stable trajectories of contact and intergroup bias, or contact habits. We then propose a habit-rupture model of contact, according to which changes in intergroup relations through lifespan and macro-level disruptions act as ruptures, leading to the development of new contact habits. Considering contact and its effects through a habit and rupture lens identifies realistic and ecologically valid opportunities to apply intergroup contact in the service of the social good.

The extensive literature on the contact hypothesis reports a positive association between intergroup contact and outgroup attitudes, yet it remains unknown whether this association reflects within-person (i.e., situational changes within individuals) or between-person (i.e., stable differences between individuals) effects. To investigate this question, we applied (random-intercept) cross-lagged panel models in two studies featuring different samples, measurements, and contexts. We found longitudinal contact-attitude associations in cross-lagged panel models, which cannot differentiate within-person and between-person effects. In random-intercept cross-lagged panel models, we identified between-person effects but not within-person effects. These results conflict with the contact hypothesis, which assumes that contact leads to intra-individual attitude change. We further investigated whether between-person effects represent spurious correlations caused by potential confounders (demographic characteristics, personality, and intergroup ideologies), but found that this was not the case. Our findings highlight the need to further investigate within-person effects and potential explanations of between-person differences in contact and attitudes.

High levels of ethnic segregation have been widely observed in school friendship networks, whereas the degree to which school bullying networks are divided along ethnic lines remains uncertain. Using data from 981 students (53% girls, 47% boys; 11-14 years of age) in British schools, we sought to visualize, quantify, and compare the degree of ethnic segregation in friendship and bullying networks. Our findings contradict the common belief that ethnic segregation in friendship networks fosters interethnic conflict; instead, we identified similarly high levels of ethnic segregation in both friendship and bullying networks. Students may therefore simultaneously avoid positive and negative interethnic relationships. The findings indicate that positive and negative networks should both be considered to provide a comprehensive assessment of interethnic relations in the school environment.

Through socialization in friendship networks, individuals' levels of prejudice become more similar to their friends' levels of prejudice over time. However, the potential consequences of socialization for prejudice in a social environment remain unknown, as research has yet to explore the size of the socialization effect. Using longitudinal social network analysis and empirically informed network simulations, the present research investigated the extent to which socialization among low-, medium-, and high-prejudice individuals relates to changes in attitudes toward ethnic and religious outgroups in school friendship networks ( = 2,484 adolescents in 10 German schools). Results from the longitudinal social network model showed that individuals' levels of prejudice became more similar to their friends' levels of prejudice over time, providing evidence of socialization. Results from the empirically informed network simulations revealed that socialization produced at most a 3% change in prejudice over 9 months, reflecting a small effect size akin to the effects of prejudice-reduction interventions. Increases, decreases, and stability in prejudice were observed in the simulations, depending on the initial levels of prejudice among individuals and their friends. Socialization was strongest among friends who held initially opposing attitudes, which led both high- and low-prejudice individuals to become more neutral over time. The findings thus suggest that socialization has a neutralizing effect, rather than a polarizing effect, on prejudice in adolescent friendship networks. This research has methodological implications for the estimation of effect sizes in psychological studies and practical implications for network interventions that aim to utilize socialization to reduce societal prejudice. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).