Dr Mark Joy
After studying pure Mathematics to post-graduate level at Warwick, Mark taught as a secondary teacher in London for 5 years. He then re-trained in Information Systems Engineering and began research in Neural Networks; specifically, studying mathematically the stability of nonlinear circuits of Hopfield-type as a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. He also began lecturing Mathematics and Statistics at Kingston University, London.
Mark became interested in the Statistics in HealthCare and began studying predictive models for Occupancy at the hospital-level and also classical statistical and other predictive models for HSMRs (and other risks) in secondary healthcare.
Mark has extensive Commercial experience with big data sets in HealthCare, nationally and internationally, working as a Senior Statistician at Dr Foster (one of the leading providers of healthcare variation analysis and clinical benchmarking solutions worldwide). For the last four years he has been Statistician with the Global Comparators project, a major international hospital network created in 2011 to be a global hospital benchmarking collaborative.
Nonlinear Differential EquationsNeural NetworksMulti-Level Statistical Models in MedicinePredictive Modelling of HealthCare Systems
Background Abdominal wall hernia is a common surgical condition. Patients may present in an emergency with bowel obstruction, incarceration or strangulation. Small bowel obstruction (SBO) is a serious surgical condition associated with significant morbidity. The aim of this study was to describe current management and outcomes of patients with obstructed hernia in the UK as identified in the National Audit of Small Bowel Obstruction (NASBO). Methods NASBO collated data on adults treated for SBO at 131 UK hospitals between January and March 2017. Those with obstruction due to abdominal wall hernia were included in this study. Demographics, co-morbidity, imaging, operative treatment, and in-hospital outcomes were recorded. Modelling for factors associated with mortality and complications was undertaken using Cox proportional hazards and multivariable regression modelling. Results NASBO included 2341 patients, of whom 415 (17 center dot 7 per cent) had SBO due to hernia. Surgery was performed in 312 (75 center dot 2 per cent) of the 415 patients; small bowel resection was required in 198 (63 center dot 5 per cent) of these operations. Non-operative management was reported in 35 (54 per cent) of 65 patients with a parastomal hernia and in 34 (32 center dot 1 per cent) of 106 patients with an incisional hernia. The in-hospital mortality rate was 9 center dot 4 per cent (39 of 415), and was highest in patients with a groin hernia (11 center dot 1 per cent, 17 of 153). Complications were common, including lower respiratory tract infection in 16 center dot 3 per cent of patients with a groin hernia. Increased age was associated with an increased risk of death (hazard ratio 1 center dot 05, 95 per cent c.i. 1 center dot 01 to 1 center dot 10;P = 0 center dot 009) and complications (odds ratio 1 center dot 05, 95 per cent c.i. 1 center dot 02 to 1 center dot 09;P = 0 center dot 001). Conclusion NASBO has highlighted poor outcomes for patients with SBO due to hernia, highlighting the need for quality improvement initiatives in this group.
Background: In England, most prescribing of direct-acting oral anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation (AF) is in primary care. However, there remain gaps in our understanding of dosage and disparities in use. We aimed to describe trends in direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) prescribing, including dose reduction in people with renal impairment and other criteria, and adherence. Methods: Using English primary care sentinel network data from 2014 to 2019, we assessed appropriate DOAC dose adjustment with creatinine clearance (CrCl). Our primary care sentinel cohort was a subset of 722 general practices, with 6.46 million currently registered patients at the time of this study. Results: Of 6 464 129 people in the cohort, 2.3% were aged ≥18 years with a diagnosis of AF, and 30.8% of these were prescribed vitamin K antagonist and 69.1% DOACs. Appropriate DOAC prescribing following CrCl measures improved between 2014 and 2019; dabigatran from 21.3% (95% CI 15.1% to 28.8%) to 48.7% (95% CI 45.0% to 52.4%); rivaroxaban from 22.1% (95% CI 16.7% to 28.4%) to 49.9% (95% CI 48.5% to 53.3%); edoxaban from 10.0% (95% CI 0.3% to 44.5%) in 2016 to 57.6% (95% CI 54.5% to 60.7%) in 2019; apixaban from 30.8% (95% CI 9.1% to 61.4%) in 2015 to 60.5% (95% CI 57.8% to 63.2%) in 2019. Adherence was highest for factor Xa inhibitors, increasing from 50.1% (95% CI 47.7% to 52.4%) in 2014 to 57.8% (95% CI 57.4% to 58.2%) in 2019. Asian and black/mixed ethnicity was associated with non-adherence (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.56 to 2.09) as was male gender (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.22), higher socioeconomic status (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.52 to 1.68), being an ex-smoker (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.19) and hypertension (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.17). Conclusions: The volume and quality of DOAC prescribing has increased yearly. Future interventions to augment quality of anticoagulant management should target disparities in adherence.