Matthias Parey

Professor Matthias Parey


Professor
+44 (0)1483 682772
Mondays 13:00-15:00

Academic and research departments

School of Economics, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences.

About

Publications

James Banks, James Cloyne, Monica Costa Dias, Matthias Parey, James P. Ziliak (2020)Introduction to the Special Issue on the 50th Anniversary of IFS, In: Fiscal Studies40(4)pp. 445-449 Wiley
Matthias Parey, Imran Rasul (2021)Measuring the Market Size for Cannabis: A New Approach Using Forensic Economics, In: Economica (London)88(350)pp. 297-338 Wiley

Quantifying the market size for cannabis is important given vigorous policy debates about how to intervene in this market. We develop a new approach to measuring the size of the cannabis market using forensic economics. The key insight is that cannabis consumption often requires the use of complementary legal inputs: roll-your-own tobacco and rolling papers. The forensic approach specifies how legal and illegal inputs are combined in the production of hand-rolled cigarettes and cannabis joints. These input relationships, along with market adding-up conditions, can be used to infer the size of the cannabis market. We provide proof-of-concept that this approach can be readily calibrated using: (i) point-of-sale data on legal inputs of roll-your-own tobacco and rolling papers; (ii) input parameter estimates drawn from a wide-ranging interdisciplinary evidence base. We implement the approach using data from 2008-9. For those years, the forensic estimates for the UK cannabis market are near double those derived from standard demand-side approaches. We make precise what drives the measurement gap between methods by establishing the adjustments needed to match estimates from alternative approaches. Our analysis develops an agenda on measurement and data collection that allows for credible cost-benefit analysis of policy interventions in illicit drug markets.

Abi Adams-Prassl, James Cloyne, Monica Costa Dias, Matthias Parey, James P. Ziliak (2020)The COVID-19 Economic Crisis, In: Fiscal studies41(3)489pp. 489-492 Wiley
James Cloyne, Monica Costa Dias, Matthias Parey, James P. Ziliak (2020)COVID-19 and the Economy, In: Fiscal studies41(2)257pp. 257-258 Wiley
James Cloyne, Monica Costa Dias, Matthias Parey, James Ziliak (2021)Special Issue on the Evolution of Mortality Inequality in 11 OECD Countries, 1990-2018: A Geographical Approach Foreword, In: Fiscal studies42(1)pp. 7-7 Wiley
Abhishek Chakravarty, Matthias Parey, Greg C. Wright (2020)The Human Capital Legacy Of A Trade Embargo, In: Journal of the European Economic Association Oxford University Press (OUP)

We estimate the effects of in-utero exposure to a trade embargo on survival and human capital in an import-dependent developing country. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that a nearly comprehensive embargo imposed by India on Nepal in 1989 led to a large decline in reported live births, and increased early life mortality. The decline in births is concentrated in poorer, more remote districts, and is sharper for female births than male births, consistent with documented gender discrimination. Women survivors of exposure are more educated in adulthood than unexposed cohorts.

Jia-Young (Michael) Fu, Joel L. Horowitz, Matthias Parey (2020)Testing Exogeneity in Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Models Identified by Conditional Quantile Restrictions, In: Econometrics Journal Oxford University Press

This paper presents a test for exogeneity of explanatory variables in a nonparametric instrumental variables (IV) model whose structural function is identified through a conditional quantile restriction. Quantile regression models are increasingly important in applied econometrics. As with mean-regression models, an erroneous assumption that the explanatory variables in a quantile regression model are exogenous can lead to highly misleading results. In addition, a test of exogeneity based on an incorrectly specified parametric model can produce misleading results. This paper presents a test of exogeneity that does not assume the structural function belongs to a known finite-dimensional parametric family and does not require estimation of this function. The latter property is important because nonparametric estimates of the structural function are unavoidably imprecise. The test presented here is consistent whenever the structural function differs from the conditional quantile function on a set of non-zero probability. The test has non-trivial power uniformly over a large class of structural functions that differ from the conditional quantile function by O(n−1/2)⁠. The results of Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical application illustrate the performance of the test.

Richard Blundell, Joel Horowitz, Matthias Parey (2018)Estimation of a nonseparable heterogenous demand function with shape restrictions and Berkson errors, In: IDEAS Working Paper Series from RePEc Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

Berkson errors are commonplace in empirical microeconomics and occur whenever we observe an average in a specified group rather than the true individual value. In consumer demand this form of measurement error is present because the price an individual pays is often measured by the average price paid by individuals in a specified group (e.g., a county). We show the importance of such measurement errors for the estimation of demand in a setting with nonseparable unobserved heterogeneity. We develop a consistent estimator using external information on the true distribution of prices. Examining the demand for gasoline in the U.S., accounting for Berkson errors is found to be quantitatively important for estimating price effects and for welfare calculations. Imposing the Slutsky shape constraint greatly reduces the sensitivity to Berkson errors.

Matthias Parey, Fabian Waldinger (2011)Studying Abroad and the Effect on International Labour Market Mobility: Evidence from the Introduction of ERASMUS, In: The Economic journal (London)121(551)pp. 194-222 Wiley

We investigate the effect of studying abroad on international labour market mobility later in life for university graduates. We exploit the introduction and expansion of the European ERASMUS student exchange programme as an instrument for studying abroad. We find that studying abroad increases an individual's probability of working in a foreign country by about 15 percentage points. We investigate heterogeneity in returns according to parental education and the student's financial situation. Furthermore, we suggest mechanisms through which the effect of studying abroad may operate.

Aitor Irastorza-Fadrique, Peter Levell, Matthias Parey (2023)Household responses to trade shocks IZA Institute of Labor Economics

We use large-scale panel data from linked decadal censuses in England and Wales to study the responses of both individuals and their partners to rising Chinese import competition in the 2000s. We test whether partners provide insurance against lost household earnings by increasing labour supply. We find that both own and partner responses to the shock vary significantly by gender. Men in households exposed to import competition respond by increasing labour force participation at older ages, and by moving into solo self-employment. This is true both in response to their own trade exposure, and as an 'added worker effect' when their partner is exposed to the shock. By contrast, we find no such response for women, who do not increase labour supply if their male partners were initially employed in exposed industries. In general, self-employment appears to act as an employment buffer for men but not women. The impacts of import competition on partnering and family dissolution also differ according to the gender of those affected: for women below 45, but not men, exposure to the trade shock reduces the likelihood of divorce and of living with a new partner. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of investigating household responses, and the self-employment margin, to fully understand the effects of trade shocks.

Richard Blundell, Joel L. Horowitz, Matthias Parey (2012)Measuring the price responsiveness of gasoline demand: Economic shape restrictions and nonparametric demand estimation, In: Quantitative economics3(1)pp. 29-51 Wiley

This paper develops a new method for estimating a demand function and the welfare consequences of price changes. The method is applied to gasoline demand in the United States and is applicable to other goods. The method uses shape restrictions derived from economic theory to improve the precision of a nonparametric estimate of the demand function. Using data from the U. S. National Household Travel Survey, we show that the restrictions are consistent with the data on gasoline demand and remove the anomalous behavior of a standard nonparametric estimator. Our approach provides new insights about the price responsiveness of gasoline demand and the way responses vary across the income distribution. We find that price responses vary non-monotonically with income. In particular, we find that low-and high-income consumers are less responsive to changes in gasoline prices than are middle-income consumers. We find similar results using comparable data from Canada.

Pedro Carneiro, Costas Meghir, Matthias Parey (2013)MATERNAL EDUCATION, HOME ENVIRONMENTS, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS, In: Journal of the European Economic Association11(S1)pp. 123-160 Oxford Univ Press

We study the intergenerational effects of maternal education on children's cognitive achievement, behavioral problems, grade repetition, and obesity, using matched data from the female participants of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) and their children. We address the endogeneity of maternal schooling by instrumenting it with variation in schooling costs during the mother's adolescence. Our results show substantial intergenerational returns to education. Our data set allows us to study a large array of channels which may transmit the effect of maternal education to the child, including family environment and parental investments at different ages of the child. We discuss policy implications and relate our findings to the literature on intergenerational mobility.

Richard Blundell, Joel Horowitz, MATTHIAS PAREY (2021)Estimation of a Heterogeneous Demand Function with Berkson Errors, In: Review of Economics and Statistics MIT Press

Berkson errors are commonplace in empirical microeconomics. In consumer demand this form of measurement error occurs when the price an individual pays is measured by the (weighted) average price paid by individuals in a specified group (e.g., a county), rather than the true transaction price. We show the importance of such measurement errors for the estimation of demand in a setting with nonsep-arable unobserved heterogeneity. We develop a consistent estimator using external information on the true distribution of prices. Examining the demand for gasoline in the U.S., we document substantial within-market price variability, and show that there are significant spatial differences in the magnitude of Berkson errors across regions of the U.S. Accounting for Berkson errors is found to be quantitatively important for estimating price effects and for welfare calculations. Imposing the Slutsky shape constraint greatly reduces the sensitivity to Berkson errors.

Matthias Parey (2020)International Student Mobility Programs, In: The SAGE Encyclopedia of Higher Education SAGE Publications

This entry discusses programs that support, encourage or administer International Student Mobility (ISM). According to the definition from the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE, 2004), ISM is “any form of international mobility which takes place within a student’s programme of study in higher education”. ISM programs can refer to supporting outbound students (outward mobility) as well as incoming students from abroad (inward mobility). Students planning a spell abroad can either plan and organize their stay independently (as what are called free movers) or via a student exchange program. This entry begins by providing an overview of patterns of student mobility, and then describes the role of student mobility programs. ISM includes both short-term study abroad visits as well as long-term study abroad stays for entire degree programs. This entry emphasizes study abroad as a part of a student’s higher education studies (often referred to as credit mobility), rather than completing an entire degree program abroad (degree mobility). In the following, the challenges of evaluating the effect of study abroad programs on subsequent outcomes are discussed. The introduction of the ERASMUS program is considered in light of research that has been undertaken using the launch and growth of the program as opportunities to examine and understand the effects of study abroad participation. The entry discusses the role of student exchanges on subsequent international mobility choices, as well as on subsequent labor market outcomes. It concludes by addressing some key open questions in this area.

Additional publications