Paul Temple

Dr Paul Temple


Reader in Economics
+44 (0)1483 686949
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Biography

Biography

Paul Temple graduated from Cambridge University in 1973 and obtained an MA (Econ) from Manchester in 1975; in 2009 he was awarded a PhD from Cambridge on the basis of his published research. He has worked in a variety of academic posts, and taught in both the UK and US up until 1989. After that he worked as an Economic Adviser to the National Economic Development Council, working on issues such as labour market performance and international competitiveness. In 1993 he was appointed as Research Fellow in the Centre for Business Strategy, London Business School, studying a variety of topics related to Britain's economic performance - including investment, innovation, and the role of standards in promoting international competitiveness. He joined the School of Economics at Surrey in 1997, and was promoted to Reader in 2007.

Research interests

His recent research at Surrey has included work relating to physical investment and the economics of technological change and innovation, especially in relation to standards. He also has interests in business and technological history. His publications include editorship of Britain's Economic Performance; Investment, Growth, and Employment; Critical Perspectives: Mergers and Acquisitions. He has also published articles in various journals including the Economic Journal, Oxford Economic Papers, The Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, the International Journal of Industrial Organization, Cambridge Journal of Economics and the Economic History Review.

Research collaborations

Professor Ciaran Driver, School of African and Oriental Studies (investment and Britain's economic performance)

Dr Christopher Spencer, Loughborough University and Shimomura Fellow, Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan (standardization and productivity growth)

Dr Ray Lambert, Associate Research Fellow, Department of Management, Birkbeck, University of London

Teaching

  • Applied economics
  • The economics of international business competitiveness
  • Business History

Departmental duties

Module review administration

My publications

Publications

Choudhary MA, Temple P, Zhao L (2013) Taking the measure of things: The role of measurement in EU trade, Empirica 40 (1) pp. 75-109
In this paper theoretical and empirical models of intra-industry trade are developed in which economic activities, based on measurement and an associated measurement infrastructure, play a role in creating product variety. The paper discusses how the measurement infrastructure which includes institutions conducting metrological research and standard setting organization reduces transactions costs, especially in markets where differences in product characteristics are important. The theoretical analysis focuses on the public good characteristics of the measurement infrastructure, considering how the infrastructure impacts upon trade in a model based upon product differentiation under monopolistic competition. In the econometric analysis, indicators of the strength of the infrastructure within the EU, both across industries and across countries, suggest that measurement activities are important in determining the extent of bi-lateral EU intra-industry trade. Despite many common elements in the measurement infrastructure across the EU, there is also some evidence of differential access to the infrastructure among EU members. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.
Driver C, Temple P, Urga G (2006) Identifying externalities in UK manufacturing using direct estimation of an average cost function, ECONOMICS LETTERS 92 (2) pp. 228-233 ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA
The paper argues that both the development of standards within consensus and rule based organizations and the methods used for the protection of intellectual property have pervasive and interacting, and sometimes possibly harmful, influences throughout innovation systems; both are moreover highly relevant for business strategies based upon open innovation. Using the UK Innovation Surveys and specially constructed data on the standards environment confronting firms, we illumine the importance of the standards for innovation and forward looking innovation commitments, as well as for firm?s decisions regarding methods of intellectual property protection. We find that cooperating firms particularly value the information content of standards. We supplement these findings with direct survey based evidence regarding not only the use of standards but also the motivations for participation in standard setting organizations. The surveys reported confirmed the widespread use of standards in research and services as well as manufacturing. Both IPR and participation development were frequently seen as strategically important. Motivation for participation included the ability to influence future standards and obtaining valuable information about the trajectories for technologies and markets. While IPR issues do sometimes conflict with standards setting processes, the evidence does not suggest that delay and other issues are a widespread problem in standard setting.
Driver C, Imai K, Temple P, Urga G (2004) The effect of uncertainty on UK investment authorisation: Homogeneous vs. heterogeneous estimators, Empirical Economics 29 (1) pp. 115-128
This paper compares pooled and non-pooled models of UK capital investment using the Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) Industrial Trends Survey, focusing on the impact of uncertainty. The uncertainty measure is based on the cross sectional dispersion of optimism about the future business conditions in the industry in which the firm operates. The panel data estimation shows that uncertainty has quantitatively important negative effects on investment. However, if we look at the estimation results at the industry level, we find a great diversity in both estimated elasticities and t-statistics, providing valuable information not available from the pooled model. Finally, we compare the forecast performances of the above models; this analysis confirms that pooled estimators are generally better than non-pooled estimators in terms of out-of-sample forecast performance, but the difference between the two is not very large.
Temple P, Williams G (2002) Infra-technology and economic performance: evidence from the United Kingdom measurement infrastructure, INFORMATION ECONOMICS AND POLICY 14 (4) PII S0167-6245(02)00065-3 pp. 435-452 ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Driver C, Temple P, Urga G (2008) Real options - delay vs. pre-emption: Do industrial characteristics matter?, International Journal of Industrial Organization 26 (2) pp. 532-545
Choudhary A, Temple P, Zhao L (2006) Measurement, Technological Capability, and Intra-Industry Trade: Evidence from the EU,
In this paper we develop models of intra-industry trade in which the technological infrastructure
associated with measurement activity plays a role in determining the ability of firms to
differentiate their products, making them more marketable, and hence promoting intra-industry
trade. We observe that public support for the measurement infrastructure is an important
element of public support for industry, while publicly available technical standards provide a
significant means by which firms make use of this infrastructure. As an empirical test for the
importance of the measurement infrastructure, we consider bi-lateral intra-industry trade flows
between economies in the EU and find that both a measure of the cross industry importance of
the measurement infrastructure ? as proxied by standards - as well as the degree of investment in
the ability to measure ? as proxied by the use of instruments ? are important correlates of intraindustry
trade. The econometric analysis suggests that differences in national measurement
infrastructures continue to play an important role in determining EU trade flows.
Choudhary MA, Temple P, Zhao L (2011) Taking the measure of things: the role of measurement in EU trade, Empirica forthcoming Springer
In this paper theoretical and empirical models of intra-industry trade are
developed in which economic activities, based on measurement and an associated
measurement infrastructure, play a role in creating product variety. The paper
discusses how the measurement infrastructure which includes institutions conducting
metrological research and standard setting organization reduces transactions
costs, especially in markets where differences in product characteristics are
important. The theoretical analysis focuses on the public good characteristics of the
measurement infrastructure, considering how the infrastructure impacts upon trade
in a model based upon product differentiation under monopolistic competition. In
the econometric analysis, indicators of the strength of the infrastructure within the
EU, both across industries and across countries, suggest that measurement activities
are important in determining the extent of bi-lateral EU intra-industry trade. Despite
many common elements in the measurement infrastructure across the EU, there is
also some evidence of differential access to the infrastructure among EU members.
Lanza A, Temple P, Urga G (2003) The implications of tourism specialisation in the long run: an econometric analysis for 13 OECD economies, TOURISM MANAGEMENT 24 (3) PII S0261-5177(02)00065-1 pp. 315-321 ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Yang QG, Temple P (2012) Reform and competitive selection in China: An analysis of firm exits, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 23 (3) pp. 286-299
This paper considers aspects of the competitive selection process in China - firm entry, survival, and exit - in an important sector of manufacturing, looking in particular for changes resulting from the process of reform. Using industry census data from a province in North-East China, we find substantial differences in the process between ownership types. By conducting decompositions of aggregate growth and exploring the determinants of firm's exit using a hazard rate model, we observe a substantial rate of churning of enterprises in the sector, finding that the competitive selection processes operate, for small and collectively owned enterprises (COEs), in a manner consistent with what is known about a private market economy. While the hazard for state owned enterprises (SOEs) is lower than for COEs, we find that the reforms introduced in 1992 were important in closing the gap for similarly situated firms. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.
Driver C, Temple P, Urga G (2005) Explaining the Diversity of Industry Investment Responses to Uncertainty Using Long Run Panel Survey Data,
This paper presents an empirical study of the channels of influence
from uncertainty to fixed investment suggested by real options theory.
Using panel data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial
Trends Survey, we report OLS estimates of the impact of uncertainty
on investment where the regressors are augmented by cross-sectional averages
of the dependent variable and of the individual specific regressors,
as recently suggested by Pesaran (2004). The cross-industry pattern of results
is checked for consistency with the pattern predicted by real options
theory, using a specially constructed data set of industrial characteristics.
We find that irreversibility is able to predict the pattern detected, but
only when combined with a measure of the information advantage of delay.
There is also evidence for expansion options effects; industries with
high R&D and advertising intensities tend to have positive uncertainty
effects.
Driver C, Temple P (2004) Shareholder Value or Competitive Advantage? Evidence from Hurdle Rates,
Economic theory suggests several plausible reasons why firms may employ hurdle rates for
capital investment appraisal that differ from discount rates. Using a sample of business units
from the PIMS data bank of North American companies we find that hurdle rates are frequently
below and also frequently above matched data on discount rates. Using multinomial logit
analysis we find that variables representing the opportunity for strategic investment or the
motivation for such investment increase the probability of managerial or strategic behaviour. We
also find evidence for an irreversibility effect.
Temple P, Witt R, Spencer C (2004) Institutions and Long-Run Growth in the UK: the Role of Standards, 1004
In this paper we consider the relationship between the standards created by national
standards bodies and long run economic growth, exploring the relationship in the
context of the UK and the British Standards Institution (BSI). We suggest that standards
provide a key enabling mechanism for the widespread diffusion of major technologies,
while being generally supportive of incremental innovation and general technological
understanding. In order to further understanding of this mechanism we measure the
?output? of the BSI by estimating the size of the BSI ?catalogue? available to the economy
since its inception in 1901. The measure allows us to estimate an augmented production
function for the UK economy over the period 1948-2002. Within a co-integrating
framework, we find a statistically significant and unique co-integrating vector between
labour productivity, the capital-labour ratio, exogenous technological progress and the
BSI catalogue. The long-run elasticity of labour productivity with respect to the standards
stock is estimated to be about 0.05, so that the rapid growth of the catalogue in the postwar
period is associated with about 13% of the aggregate growth in labour productivity.
Driver C, Temple P (2012) The Unbalanced Economy, Palgrave Macmillan
Reviews and criticises the market-led approach that has dominated economic policy in the UK from Thatcher to the financial crisis
Temple PA (2013) Standards, Learning and Growth in Britain - 1901-2009, University of Surrey School of Economics Discussion Paper DP 06/13
This paper considers the model of voluntary, consensus based standardization as developed
through the British Standards Institution (BSI) and its contribution to learning and
productivity growth. It discusses the contribution of professional engineers to the model?s
introduction, its extension at home and imitation overseas, arguing that by 1931 the BSI
catalogue of standards represented a considerable stock of codified knowledge whose
growth reflected underlying aggregate technological advance. To validate this claim we
incorporate a measure of the BSI catalogue of standards into an econometric model of
productivity growth in Britain. However, caution is required in the interpretation of this
finding.
Driver C, Temple P (2010) Why do hurdle rates differ from the cost of capital?, CAMBRIDGE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 34 (3) pp. 501-523 OXFORD UNIV PRESS
Temple P, Urga G, Driver C (2001) The influence of uncertainty on investment in the UK: A macro or micro phenomenon?, SCOTTISH JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY 48 (4) pp. 361-382 BLACKWELL PUBL LTD
Driver C, Imai K, Temple P, Urga G (2002) Contrasts between classes of assets in fixed investment panel
equations as a way of testing real option theory,
This paper reports estimation of investment equations for two classes of fixed assets: plant
& machinery and building for a large sample of UK manufacturing industries. It exploits the
different degree of irreversibility that characterises these assets to test the power of real
options theory to explain investment under uncertainty. Additionally, the paper uses a
specially constructed industry-specific measure of irreversibility for plant and machinery
investment to test for real options effects within that class of investment.
Driver C, Temple P, Urga G (2005) Profitability, capacity, and uncertainty: a model of UK manufacturing investment, OXFORD ECONOMIC PAPERS-NEW SERIES 57 (1) pp. 120-141 OXFORD UNIV PRESS
Driver C, Temple P, Urga G (2006) Contrasts between types of assets in fixed investment equations as a way of testing real options theory, JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS 24 (4) pp. 432-443 AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC