Published: 17 February 2017

Modelling and forecasting international tourism demand

The University of Surrey has a longstanding reputation in tourism demand modelling and forecasting research. Surrey’s continuous advancements and innovations in forecasting methodologies have been widely applied by international organisations, government agencies and tourism-related enterprises contributing to evidence-based policy and strategy.

As one of the founding departments in the country, Surrey’s School of Hospitality and Tourism Management has been researching tourism demand since the 1990s working on new methodologies and advanced econometric models including the time-varying-parameter (TVP) model. Scientific evidence shows that TVP methods have improved tourism forecast accuracy significantly.

More than 370 tourism-related organisations and government agencies from 39 countries have subscribed to Surrey’s online forecasting system including the Pacific Asia Tourism Association and Hong Kong Disneyland. Accurate tourism forecasts provide a scientific foundation for formulating evidence-based tourism policies and assisting decision-making in areas such as expansion, pricing and projections.

The adoption of Surrey’s forecasting methodologies has enabled more effective policymaking, strategic planning and operation management. It has been particularly effective in helping companies to plan investments in visitor infrastructure, manage human resources and develop new products, all supporting the continued growth and success of tourist destinations and businesses.

Find out more about the research in the School of Hospitality and Tourism Management.

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