Frankie O'Connell

Dr Frankie O'Connell

Reader in Air Transport Management
+44 (0)1483 684293
57 AP 02

Academic and research departments

School of Hospitality and Tourism Management.


My publications


Book: O’Connell, J.F., and Williams, G. (2011), Air Transport in the 21st Century – Key Strategic Developments, Ashgate Publishing, London.

Papers (ABS 4*): Corbet, S., O’Connell, J. F., Efthymiou, M., Guiomard, C., & Lucey, B. (2019). The impact of terrorism on European tourism. Annals of Tourism Research75, 1-17.

Corbet, S., Efthymiou, M., Lucey, B., O'Connell, J.F., (2021). When lightning strikes twice: The tragedy-induced demise and attempted corporate resuscitation of Malaysia airlines. Annals of Tourism Research, 87, 103109


Efthymiou Marina, Whiston Sinead, O'Connell John F, Brown Gavin D Flight crew evaluation of the flight time limitations regulation, In: Case Studies on Transport Policy Elsevier Ltd
Fatigue has been a long-standing concern in modern aviation. The duty hours of those who operate (cabin crew and pilots) have increased significantly. In order to combat the effects of fatigue, operators must adhere to Flight Time Limitations (FTLs) strictly set by regulatory bodies. With advances in the science of fatigue, the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) in February 2016 altered the duty limits and rest periods. A quantitative self-report survey design using descriptive statistics, chi-square tests of association and probit regressions with marginal effect calculations gathered the crew perceptions about the impact of the FTL regulation change to fatigue levels, reporting and safety/just culture. Participants (n = 794) were commercial cabin crew and pilots operating under European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) regulations. 73.2% said they have not reported fatigue to their airline and 81.7% having operated fatigued. Scales on Fatigue Knowledge and Just/Safety Culture were constructed. Each point increase on the 6-item Just/Safety Culture scale shows that respondents are 8.6 percentage points less likely to operate fatigued. This study signifies that fatigue is under-reported and is a real risk to safety in the aviation industry. A substantial change to the existing safety culture should be encouraged and the fatigue’s safety implications should not be underestimated and safety be compromised for maximum aircraft and labour utilisation.
Efthymiou Marina, Shaw Mark, Tiernan Siobhan, O'Connell John F, Warnock-Smith David (2021)Third party ancillary revenues in the airline sector: An exploratory study, In: Journal of Air Transport Management90101936 Elsevier Ltd
Some airlines, especially Low Cost Carriers (LCCs), have earned significant profits from revenues derived from ancillary revenues. However, to date few have been able to derive a meaningful portion of revenues from 3rd party ancillaries. The key to increasing these revenues comes from an understanding of passenger willingness to pay for 3rd party products/services, coupled with increasing customer awareness and consequently the all-important customer conversion. This study assesses the 3rd party ancillary services that passengers are more willing to purchase, along with the potential offers that might increase their willingness to purchase specific 3rd party services. A mixed methods approach was used consisting of a passenger survey and nine expert interviews. The main findings are that car hire, airport parking, and the sale of hotel rooms had the most significant associations with customer willingness to pay. It was also found that there was a significant association between specific offers and increased willingness to purchase. The 15% discount off a future flight, and to a lesser extent, hotel price guarantees were the most significant. Expert interviewees confirmed that the future sustainability of this revenue stream for airlines is centred on mobile digital devices, customer conversion, and exploiting potential market opportunities.
Akyildirim Erdinc, Corbet Shaen, Efthymiou Marina, Guiomard Cathal, Sensoy Ahmet (2020)The financial market effects of international aviation disasters, In: International review of financial analysis69101468 Elsevier Inc
The spread of misinformation with regards to aviation disasters continues to be a point of concern for aviation companies. Much of this information usually surrounds speculation based on the cause and responsibility attributed to the incident, implicitly possessing the potential to generate significant financial market price volatility. In this paper, we investigate a number of stylised facts relating to the effects of airline disasters on aviation stocks, while considering contagion effects, information flows and the sources of price discovery within the broad sector. Results indicate a substantially elevated levels of share price volatility in the aftermath of aviation disasters, while cumulative abnormal returns present sharp under-performance of the analysed companies relative to international exchanges. When considering an EGARCH analysis, we observe that share price volatility appears to be significantly influenced by the scale of the disaster in terms of the fatalities generated. Significant contagion effects upon the broad aviation index along with substantial changes in traditional price discovery channels are also identified. The role that the spread of information on social media, whether it be correct or of malicious origins, cannot be eliminated as an explanatory factor of these changing dynamics over time and region.
Corbet Shaen, O’Connell John F., Efthymiou Marina, Guiomard Cathal, Lucey Brian (2019)The impact of terrorism on European tourism, In: Annals of Tourism Research75pp. 1-17 Elsevier
This paper estimates the influence of terrorist attacks on European tourism through the short-term post hoc response of the airline industry and passengers. We use a seasonally-adjusted ARMA-GARCH methodology on unique datasets that examine changes in tourism as measured by ASKs, seats filled and changes in both fares and revenues. Traffic flows are found to fall despite significant fare reductions; however, this response varies substantially based on the flight origin and ticket-type purchased. We found that business travel slows substantially due to duty of care legislation for corporate transport. While we found evidence indicating substantial airline fare reductions, in the majority of investigated cases this response was unable to mitigate substantial reductions in passenger demand and flows across varying ticket types.
Yang Huijuan, (2020)Short-term carbon emissions forecast for aviation industry in Shanghai, In: Journal of cleaner production275122734 Elsevier Ltd
Given the China’s fast-evolving aviation market, a reliable carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions forecast is essential to identify and mitigate the environmental impact of aviation market. Due to slot limits and airport capacity constraints in Shanghai, the rate of traffic growth has slowed down in recent years. However, the increasing number of regional and international flights tends to drive the fuel consumption and carbon emissions to an unexpectedly high level. This study uses a two-tiered bottom-up emissions prediction method for empirically estimating and forecasting air transport CO2 emissions on all the passenger flights to/from Shanghai. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) linear model was applied for a 5-year prediction of air transport fuel consumption and en route CO2 emissions. The research established that 36.49 million tonnes of CO2 will be emitted into the atmosphere by the end of June 2021, representing a 6.41% increase compared to the same period a year earlier. Market-based recommendations are proposed including a nationwide carbon market and a carbon offset scheme, accordingly.
Dursun ME, O'Connell JF, Lei Z, Warnock-Smith D (2014)The transformation of a legacy carrier - A case study of Turkish Airlines, In: JOURNAL OF AIR TRANSPORT MANAGEMENT40pp. 106-118 ELSEVIER
This study examines the metronomic rise of Turkish Airlines into a global carrier in the period following domestic deregulation and part privatisation. Using a comparative assessment of the carrier's network and its competitive strategies during the 2003-2013/2014 period it was found that Turkish Airlines now benefits from considerable network, cost, service and brand advantages over competing European and to a lesser extent Middle-Eastern airlines. Its network operation based in Istanbul Ataturk airport enjoys strong geographic and demographic advantages, which enables it to optimise the use of its large and young short-haul fleet between a significant number of domestic and international points. This study has important implications for partially or fully state owned legacy carriers as to how to gain competitive advantages in an increasingly open and liberal airline industry.
Lei Z, Yu M, Chen R, O'Connell F (2015)Liberalization of China–US air transport market: Assessing the impacts of the 2004 and 2007 protocols, In: Journal of Transport Geography
This paper examines China’s considerations in reaching the 2004 and 2007 Air Service Agreement Protocols with the United States (US) and the impacts of such policy on the China-US market from the perspective of China. Analysis shows that the 2004 and the 2007 Protocols have profound impacts on the China-US market. The two Protocols have been associated with phenomenal traffic growth and intensified competition. Passengers also benefit from much more choice in terms of both airlines and routing. Over time, Chinese carriers’ operating performance and financial performance have gradually improved after the liberalization expressed in the Protocols. However, the industry’s hub-building initiatives are still seriously challenged by competing hubs in Seoul and Tokyo which have diverted substantial number of passengers moving between the China and US markets. Such issues have to be addressed in order to create a win-win outcome for both countries.

Additional publications