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Dr Barbara Befani


Research Fellow
+44 (0)1483 683762
24 AD 03

My publications

Publications

Barbara Befani, Corinna Elsenbroich, Jen Badham (2021)Diagnostic evaluation with simulated probabilities, In: Evaluation (London, England. 1995)27(1)pp. 102-115 SAGE Publications

As policy makers require more rigorous assessments for the strength of evidence in Theory-Based evaluations, Bayesian logic is attracting increasing interest; however, the estimation of probabilities that this logic (almost) inevitably requires presents challenges. Probabilities can be estimated on the basis of empirical frequencies, but such data are often unavailable for most mechanisms that are objects of evaluation. Subjective probability elicitation techniques are well established in other fields and potentially applicable, but they present potential challenges and might not always be feasible. We introduce the community to a third way: simulated probabilities. We provide proof of concept that simulation can be used to estimate probabilities in diagnostic evaluation and illustrate our case with an application to health policy.

Barbara Befani, Chris Rees, Liz Varga, Dione Hills (2016)Testing Contribution Claims with Bayesian Updating - CECAN Evaluation and Policy Practice Note (EPPN) No. 2.1 for policy analysts and evaluators Centre for the Evaluation of Complexity Across the Nexus (CECAN)

This is an Evaluation Policy and Practice Note that considers testing contribution claims with Bayesian updating in complex policy evaluation.

Emma Uprichard, Alex Penn, Martine Barons, Anne Liddon, David Byrne, Barbara Befani, Helen Wilkinson, James Q. Smith (2016)Dependency Models. CECAN Evaluation and Policy Practice Note (EPPN) No. 4 for policy analysts and evaluators Centre for the Evaluation of Complexity Across the Nexus (CECAN)

This is an Evaluation Policy and Practice Note that explores the application of dependency models in complex policy evaluation.