Jason is a Senior Lecturer in Tourism and Events Management. Before joining the University of Surrey in 2011, Jason received his BA in Economics in 2004 and MSc in Economics and Statistics in 2007. He then worked as a research assistant at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, where he obtained his PhD in Tourism Management. Jason has worked with various organisations on research and consultancy projects about tourism demand modelling and forecasting, tourism impact evaluation, and tourist satisfaction assessment.
University roles and responsibilities
- Director of Postgraduate Research - School of Hospitality and Tourism Management
Affiliations and memberships
Demand modelling and forecasting
Quantitative research methods
Commissioned by VisitBritain, this research project firstly overviews the International Passenger Survey (IPS) used in the UK as a tool to measure inbound arrivals and expenditure. It then summarises the approaches used by twelve destinations that share some similarities to the UK: Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Ireland, South Korea, USA, South Africa, Hong Kong, the EU as a whole as well as France, Austria and Saudi Arabia. Details of official measures such as the data collecting methods, data processing, publishing schedules are provided and mapped.
Additionally, given the interruption during the Covid-19 crisis, the study explores complementary data sources that can be applied as mitigation when traditional data collection is substantially interrupted. Alternative potential or emerging types of measures considered or used by these destinations, including mobile positioning data, bank card transaction data and Google trends data are investigated. Further details of the approaches used by each of the selected destinations are provided in the form of case studies.
Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), UK
This project will analyse how risk and uncertainty impact on the UK's inbound, outbound and domestic markets. The two-stage project will first analyse a specially-commissioned survey of 17,500 potential tourists in the UK and its four main markets: France, Germany, USA and China. This will be followed by experimental research to assess how tourists respond to contrasting future Covid-19 health and containment scenarios.
This research will provide a new evidence base on tourist intentions that can underpin more accurate demand forecasts, and more targeted market research and policy measures for UK tourism. The project is undertaken in collaboration with VisitBritain and the Association of British Travel Agents.
March to August, 2021
The Scottish Government
Commissioned by VisitScotland, this project provides an overview of estimates of price elasticities of demand and income elasticities of demand for tourists to destinations relevant to Scotland; price elasticities of supply of commercial accommodation relevant to Scotland and other factors influencing the demand and supply of tourism. The project also summarises available evidence on tourists’ behavioural responses to taxation.
SME Innovation Voucher Scheme, University of Surrey
This project aims to engage in an economic and social impact study of arts in Surrey. In collaboration with three industry partners: Yvonne Arnaud Theatre, The Lightbox gallery and museum and Watts Gallery—Artists’ Village, this project will provide insights not only on an organisational scale, but a wider impact of culminative arts experiences to the social and economic environment of Surrey. By evaluating the impact of both the economic and social contributions to wider society, this project will seek to provide a wider, holistic understanding of the benefits that the arts sector can bring to society. In addition, by bringing the economic and social impacts of organisations together across three collaborative partners, the opportunity will exist to evaluate the range of economic and social contributions that are being made within each organisation. A mixed-method research approach will be taken, including in-depth interviews and online questionnaire surveys.
SME Innovation Voucher Scheme, University of Surrey
This project focuses on engaging in an evaluation of the opportunity afforded by augmented reality solutions as providing virtual engagement with and experience of art during times of crisis. Recognising the current challenges in the unprecedented times COVID-19, it has become clear that the current structures of art galleries and museums render them unprepared for the significant impact of limited social mobility and the dramatic effects this has had on visitor numbers. As such, many exhibitions and galleries around the world now remain out of reach to millions of prospective visitors and it is by addressing the role of virtual, augmented reality experiences of art that makes this project unique and highly innovative. Indeed, recognising the importance of engagement in leisure and recreational activities, including visiting arts and heritage sites, and the benefits this brings for the health and wellbeing of visitors, the objectives of this research project are as follows: firstly, to work with Smartify to critique the shifts in visitor behaviour patterns throughout this time of crisis as they move from predominantly physical, on-site encounters with art, to engaging with art and curated tours through platforms such as Smartify; secondly, by working directly with Smartify partner organisations, the opportunity exists to evaluate the future opportunities for arts and heritage organisations in reframing existing business models to adopt greater virtual, greener and technology-led solutions for engaging with art galleries and associated exhibitions. Working directly with Smartify and their partners, the research will engage in an exercise of future-thinking and thought-leadership in critiquing prospective future directions through lessons learnt from providing virtual solutions.
- Dr Victoria Eichhorn
GfK Significant (Belgium); Neumann Consult (Germany) and ProASolutions (Spain)
European Commission, DG Enterprise and Industry
The main aim of the project is to improve Europe's tourism sector competitiveness and the attractiveness of its destinations by examining the current and future demand for accessible tourism. Travel patterns and behaviour of people with access needs are investigated, essential to establish the current and future economic contribution of accessible tourism. This will provide evidence why investments in accessible tourism are necessary to deliver economic and social benefits to both the industry as well as all individuals.
Economics for Tourism and Transport
International Tourism Management
Researcher Development Programme
Chen, J.L., Li, G., Liu, A. and Morgan, N. (2021) Elasticities relevant to tourism in Scotland: evidence review. Available at: http://www.gov.scot/publications/elasticities-relevant-tourism-scotland-evidence-review/
Chen, J.L., Li, G., Liu, A. and Williams, A. (2021) Landscape of Inbound Tourism Measurement. Available at: https://www.visitbritain.org/sites/default/files/vb-corporate/Documents-Library/documents/litm_final_report_july_2021_updated.pdf
Jiao, X., Chen, J.L. and Li, G. (2021) ‘Forecasting tourism demand: Developing a general nesting spatiotemporal model’, Annals of Tourism Research, 90, p. 103277. doi:10.1016/j.annals.2021.103277.
Kim, Y.R., Williams, A.M., Park, S. and Chen, J.L. (2021) ‘Spatial spillovers of agglomeration economies and productivity in the tourism industry: The case of the UK’, Tourism Management, 82, p. 104201. doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2020.104201.
Jiao, X., Li, G. and Chen, J.L. (2020) ‘Forecasting international tourism demand: a local spatiotemporal model’, Annals of Tourism Research, 83, p. 102937. doi:10.1016/j.annals.2020.102937.
Chen, J.L., Li, G., Wu, D.C. and Shen, S. (2019) ‘Forecasting Seasonal Tourism Demand Using a Multiseries Structural Time Series Method’, Journal of Travel Research, 58(1), pp. 92–103. doi:10.1177/0047287517737191.
Jiao, E.X. and Chen, J.L. (2019) ‘Tourism forecasting: A review of methodological developments over the last decade’, Tourism Economics, 25(3), pp. 469–492. doi:10.1177/1354816618812588.
Background Organisations frequently rely on international business travel when operating in internationalized business environments. Yet, the effectiveness of this mechanism relies on their international business travellers (IBTs) being physically and psychologically well enough to productively perform across different working environments. The salience of this issue has led to increased interest in explaining IBTs’ work-related outcomes and their antecedents. Data and methods This paper tests key assumptions of the job-demands resources theory (JD-R) in the context of international business travel. Based on a sample of 134 IBTs from different national backgrounds, the study analyses the role of prominent job demands and resources for IBTs’ exhaustion and engagement. The study also looks at the presumed moderating role of recovery experiences. Results Support for the JD-R theory when applied to the context of international business travel remains mixed. Results suggest workload as an important predictor of exhaustion. Organisational support predicts engagement. Other typical resources including autonomy and supervisory support do not show a significant relation to work-related outcomes. Apart from recovery relaxation, which significantly weakened the impact of job demands on exhaustion, none of the moderating effects (via coping, buffering or other recovery experiences) are confirmed. Conclusions The findings reflect the unique complexities of international business travel. For professionals working with or as IBTs, this study only suggests workload and support as reliable levers to influence work-related outcomes. For a better understanding of further job demands, resources and moderators within the IBT context, additional JD-R related research and theoretical development is proposed.
Through a systematic review of recent publications on residents’ quality of life (QOL) in relation to tourism development (TD), this study surveys associated dynamics and emerging trends. Several patterns are observed: i) geographic areas of interest have expanded from developed economies to developing economies; ii) an array of theories and concepts have been introduced or merged with classic frameworks; iii) subjective composite approaches have dominated residents’ QOL measurement; and iv) the direct and indirect influences of TD on residents’ QOL constitute a main focus of recent work. Future work can take several directions: i) establishing a conceptual framework to link tourists’ and residents’ perspectives on QOL; ii) combining subjective and objective scales to improve generalizability; iii) employing longitudinal designs with innovative methods to offer insight into the dynamics of the TD–QOL nexus; and iv) investigating QOL/well-being from the eudaimonic tradition to accommodate diversified elements and broader perspectives of QOL.
This study examines the role of tourism development in reducing regional income inequality in China. First, the theoretical foundation for how tourism affects regional income inequality is discussed. Second, based on the conditional convergence framework, this study proposes a spatiotemporal autoregressive model to capture spatial and temporal dependence as well as spatial heterogeneity. Tourism development is introduced as a conditional convergence factor in an attempt to examine whether the convergence speed is accelerated by regional tourism development. Third, the effects of international and domestic tourism in narrowing regional inequality are compared both globally and locally. The empirical results indicate that tourism development contributes significantly to the reduction of regional inequality, with domestic tourism making a greater contribution than international tourism.
This study analyses how Covid-19 shapes individuals’ international tourism intentions in context of bounded rationality. It provides a novel analysis of risk which is disaggregated into tolerance/aversion of and competence to manage risks across three different aspects: general, domain (tourism) and situational (Covid-19). The impacts of risk are also differentiated from uncertainty and ambiguity. The empirical study is based on large samples (total=8,962) collected from the world’s top five tourism source markets: China, USA, Germany, UK and France. Various risk factors show significant predictive powers of individual’s intentions to defer international tourism plans amid Covid-19. Uncertainty and ambiguity intolerance is shown to lead to intentions to take holidays relatively sooner rather than delaying the holiday plans.
Most tourism programs today have an international component in their curriculum, usually including a global tourism class. This book serves as an excellent supplemental reading for students in these classes.
This study investigates whether tourism forecasting accuracy is improved by incorporating spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. One- to three-step-ahead forecasts of tourist arrivals were generated using global and local spatiotemporal autoregressive models for 37 European countries and the forecasting performance was compared with that of benchmark models including autoregressive moving average, exponential smoothing and Naïve 1 models. For all forecasting horizons, the two spatial models outperformed the non-spatial models. The superior forecasting performance of the local model suggests that the full reflection of spatial heterogeneity can improve the accuracy of tourism forecasting.
In this work, we present a new generic polymorphic routing protocol tailored for vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs). Similar to the case of mobile ad hoc networks, the routing task in VANETs comes under various constraints that can be environmental, operational, or performance based. The proposed Polymorphic Unicast Routing Protocol (PURP) uses the concept of polymorphic routing as a means to describe dynamic, multi-behavioral, multi-stimuli, adaptive, and hybrid routing, that is applicable in various contexts, which empowers the protocol with great flexibility in coping with the timely requirements of the routing tasks. Polymorphic routing protocols, in general, are equipped with multi-operational modes (e.g., grades of proactive, reactive, and semi-proactive), and they are expected to tune in to the right mode of operation depending on the current conditions (e.g., battery residue, vicinity density, traffic intensity, mobility level of the mobile node, and other user-defined conditions). The objective is commonly maximizing and/or improving certain metrics such as maximizing battery life, reducing communication delays, improving deliverability, and so on. We give a detailed description and analysis of the PURP protocol. Through comparative simulations, we show its superiority in performance to its peers and demonstrate its suitability for routing in VANETs. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Multivariate forecasting methods are intuitively appealing since they are able to capture the inter-series dependencies, and therefore may forecast more accurately. This study proposes a multi-series structural time series method based on a novel data restacking technique as an alternative approach to seasonal tourism demand forecasting. The proposed approach is analogous to the multivariate method but only requires one variable. In this study, a quarterly tourism demand series is split into four component series, each component representing the demand in a particular quarter of each year; the component series are then restacked to build a multi-series structural time-series model. Empirical evidence from Hong Kong inbound tourism demand forecasting shows that the newly proposed approach improves the forecast accuracy, compared with traditional univariate models.
This study investigated the two main dimensions of STEs’ community social responsibility and their impact on firms’ objective and subjective performance, respectively. It also explored the moderating effects of STE owners’ demographics on the relationships between the two community social responsibility dimensions and firm performance. By the survey data from STEs in the historical towns in southwestern China, the empirical findings suggested that engaging in socially responsible behavior at the community level contributes to STEs’ subjective performance; and the influence of community engagement on STEs’ performance is moderated by the owners’ demographic characteristics, such as age, gender, ethnicity, and birthplace.
The controllable linkability of group signatures introduced by Hwang et al. enables an entity who has a linking key to find whether or not two group signatures were generated by the same signer, while preserving the anonymity. This functionality is very useful in many applications that require the linkability but still need the anonymity, such as sybil attack detection in a vehicular ad hoc network and privacypreserving data mining. In this paper, we present a new group signature scheme supporting the controllable linkability. The major advantage of this scheme is that the signature length is very short, even shorter than this in the best-known group signature scheme without supporting the linkability. We have implemented our scheme in both a Linux machine with an Intel Core2 Quad and an iPhone4. We compare the results with a number of existing group signature schemes. We also prove security features of our scheme, such as anonymity, traceability, nonframeability, and linkability, under a random oracle model.
An overview of estimates of price elasticities of demand (PED) and income elasticities of demand (YED) for tourists to destinations relevant to Scotland; price elasticities of supply (PES) of commercial accommodation relevant to Scotland and other factors influencing the demand and supply of tourism.
Attribute-based authenticated key exchange (AB-AKE) is a useful primitive that allows a group of users to establish a shared secret key and at the same time enables fine-grained access control. A straightforward approach to design an AB-AKE protocol is to extend a key exchange protocol using attribute-based authentication technique. However, insider security is a challenge security issue for AB-AKE in the multi-party setting and cannot be solved using the straightforward approach. In addition, many existing key exchange protocols for the multi-party setting (e.g., the well-known Burmester-Desmedt protocol) require multiple broadcast rounds to complete the protocol. In this paper, we propose a novel one-round attribute-based key exchange (OAKE) protocol in the multi-party setting. We define the formal security models, including session key security and insider security, for OAKE, and prove the security of the proposed protocol under some standard assumptions in the random oracle model.
We revisit the problem of secure cross-domain communication between two users belonging to different security domains within an open and distributed environment. Existing approaches presuppose that either the users are in possession of public key certificates issued by a trusted certificate authority (CA), or the associated domain authentication servers share a long-term secret key. In this article, we propose a generic framework for designing four-party password-based authenticated key exchange (4PAKE) protocols. Our framework takes a different approach from previous work. The users are not required to have public key certificates, but they simply reuse their login passwords, which they share with their respective domain authentication servers. On the other hand, the authentication servers, assumed to be part of a standard PKI, act as ephemeral CAs that certify some key materials that the users can subsequently use to exchange and agree on as a session key. Moreover, we adopt a compositional approach. That is, by treating any secure two-party password-based key exchange (2PAKE) protocol and two-party asymmetric-key/symmetric-key-based key exchange (2A/SAKE) protocol as black boxes, we combine them to obtain generic and provably secure 4PAKE protocols.
This study proposes a relative climate index based on the push and pull theory to assess the effects of relative climate variability on seasonal tourism demand. The relative climate index measures the climatic comfort of a destination relative to that of the tourist origin. Using the proposed approach, the effects of the relative climate comfort on seasonal tourism demand are empirically tested based on a quarterly panel data set of visitor arrivals from Hong Kong to 13 major Chinese cities. The intra-annual seasonality and interannual variability are both tested in the model. The results indicate that the intra-annual relative climate positively influences tourism demand in Mainland regions, where the climate is significantly different from that of Hong Kong.
This research investigates the direct and (indirect) spatial spillover effects of agglomeration economies on the productivity of the tourism industry. With increasing concerns about the persistence of low (labour) productivity in tourism across many developed economies, there is an urgent need to address this productivity challenge. Using major under-exploited UK microeconomic panel data, spatial econometric modelling is employed to estimate the effects of agglomeration economies on productivity. Findings reveal the significant effects of agglomeration economies on productivity within a specific region, but also significant spatial spillover effects across neighbouring regions, suggesting the possibility of productivity convergences. Competitive and complementary effects of agglomeration economies on productivity are identified.