Professor Gang Li


Professor of Tourism Economics, Director of International Relations, Director of the Centre for Competitiveness of the Visitor Economy
BA, MSc, PhD
+44 (0)1483 686356
16 AP 02

Biography

Biography

Gang Li is Professor of Tourism Economics, School Director of International Relations, and Director of the Centre for Competitiveness of the Visitor Economy.

Gang received his BA (first-class) in Economics with a major in Investment and Accounting, and MSc (distinction) in Econometrics and Statistics in China before coming to the University of Surrey in 2000 to pursue his PhD in tourism forecasting. In September 2003 Gang started his academic career as a lecturer at Surrey.

Gang's research interests include economic analysis and forecasting of tourism demand, economic impact of the Visitor Economy, tourism competitiveness, and quantitative methods in tourist behaviour studies. Gang has worked with a number of international organisations such as the World Travel and Tourism Council and the Pacific Asia Travel Association on various research projects. Gang is a Fellow of the International Academy of the Study of Tourism.

University roles and responsibilities

  • Director of International Relations - School of Hospitality and Tourism Management
  • Director of the Centre for Competitivness of the Visitor Economy

    Research

    Research interests

    Research projects

    Supervision

    Postgraduate research supervision

    Postgraduate research supervision

    My teaching

    Courses I teach on

    Undergraduate

    Postgraduate taught

    My publications

    Publications

    Jason Li Chen, GANG LI, ANYU LIU, NIGEL J MORGAN (2021)Review of Evidence of Elasticities Relevant to Tourism in Scotland A report by

    Through a rapid systematic review of international literature, this report provides an overview of the existing estimates of the potential price elasticities of demand (PED) and income elasticities of demand (YED) for tourists to destinations that may be relevant to Scotland, and those using commercial accommodation; price elasticities of supply (PES) of commercial accommodation relevant to Scotland; and other factors influencing changes in demand and supply in tourism. The report also summarises available primary literature on tourists’ behavioural responses to taxation. However, due to the unavailability of studies on Scotland, the evidence reviewed in this report was based on destinations that may be comparable to Scotland as identified in a cluster analysis. Therefore, the results provide a possible approximation rather than the actual elasticities for Scotland. To provide an up-to-date overview of evidence, a systematic literature review was conducted to gather information from primary studies published post-2010. As a systematic approach, the pre-specific search methodology ensures comprehensive, transparent and replicable results. As no empirical study was found to estimate the elasticities for tourism in Scotland, studies on European destinations and Scotland’s top source markets were firstly reviewed. A cluster analysis was then carried out to identify the most comparable tourism destinations to Scotland. As a result, 11 destinations were found most relevant. Elasticities for these destinations estimated by destination-specific studies were then considered as an approximation of tourism elasticities for Scotland. Regarding the European destinations in general, it has been found that the overall median PED for inbound tourism is on the borderline between elastic and inelastic (-1.02), while the overall average PED indicates a relatively elastic demand (-1.26). Regarding the YED, outbound tourism is likely to be perceived as a luxury consumption by tourists from most European countries/regions as well as the top source markets for Scotland. In terms of the most relevant destinations to Scotland as identified through cluster analysis, the overall median estimates suggest that inbound tourism is likely to be price elastic and to be perceived as a luxury consumption. However, the findings are based on limited recent evidence of varying quality for destinations relevant to Scotland. The relatively wide ranges within the elasticities for destinations that might be relevant to Scotland indicate considerable uncertainties potentially caused by the difference in the modelling methods, explanatory variables, destination-source market pairs and data used in the literature. Cautions should be exercised when interpreting the findings. In the search of recent literature on the price effect of taxation, only a limited number of primary studies have been identified. A general understanding is that an increase (or decrease) in tourism taxes may lead to a decrease (or increase) in the quantity of tourism demand, with other factors remain unchanged. This is consistent with the law of demand in economic theory. However, the impact of an increase in tourism taxation on tourists’ expenditure would depend on the tax in question, consumers’ PED, the PES, and other factors influencing both demand and supply. For instance, between VAT and accommodation occupancy taxes, past literature argues that the latter tend to have a more moderate effect on tourism demand, but they are likely to induce a psychological impact on tourists and could affect repeat tourism. As for different travel purposes, business travellers and non-coastal holidaymakers tend to have a price-inelastic demand, while leisure travellers particularly coastal holidaymakers are likely to have a price-elastic demand. Therefore, an increase in tourism taxation would likely result in higher tourism receipts from business travellers and non-coastal holidaymakers, but lower receipts from leisure travellers especially coastal holidaymakers. Additionally, while most of the studies on the impact of tourism taxation focused on the price effect of tourism taxes, tourist behaviour is also affected by non-price factors such as advertising and news, of which research is currently limited. A significant gap in the existing literature is that there is no direct evidence for Scotland. To address this gap, future research on price effects could focus on conducting primary studies underpinned by rigorous modelling methods utilising various primary and secondary data sources. In addition, survey-based tourist behaviour research on non-price effects of tourism taxes is also necessary to reach a fuller understanding of the overall effect of tourism taxation on tourist behavioural changes.

    Haiyan Song, Gang Li (2021)Editorial: Tourism forecasting competition in the time of COVID-19, In: Annals of tourism research103198 Elsevier Ltd
    Haiyan Song, ANYU LIU, GANG LI, Xinyang Liu (2021)Bayesian bootstrap aggregation for tourism demand forecasting, In: International journal of tourism research Wiley

    Limited historical data are the primary cause of the failure of tourism forecasts. Bayesian bootstrap aggregation (BBagging) may offer a solution to this problem. This study is the first to apply BBagging to tourism demand forecasting. An analysis of annual and quarterly tourism demand for Hong Kong shows that BBagging can, in general, improve the forecasting accuracy of the econometric models obtained using the general‐to‐specific (GETS) approach by reducing, relative to the ordinary bagging method, the variability in the posterior distributions of the forecasts it generates.

    DC Wu, G Li, H Song (2011)Analyzing Tourist Consumption: A Dynamic System-of-Equations Approach, In: Journal of Travel Research50(1)pp. 46-56

    The dynamic system-of-equations approach has been used to analyze the demand for outbound tourism among a number of destinations. However, this approach has not been applied to the context of the tourist consumption of different products in a given destination. Given the importance of understanding tourists' consumption behavior to destination management, this study seeks to gain new insights into Hong Kong inbound tourist expenditure patterns using a dynamic system-of-equations approach: the almost ideal demand system model. Based on the estimation of a complete demand system, this study investigates the interactions among the demand for different tourism products (i.e., shopping, hotel accommodation, meals outside hotels, and other) and the impacts of price changes on demand. Tourists from different source markets are examined separately, and the results show that their consumption behavior differs significantly.

    M Hadjikakou, Jonathan Chenoweth, Graham Miller, Angela Druckman, Gang Li (2014)Rethinking the Economic Contribution of Tourism: Case Study from a Mediterranean Island, In: Journal of Travel Research53(5)pp. 610-624 SAGE

    The article introduces an integrated market-segmentation and tourism yield estimation framework for inbound tourism. Conventional approaches to yield estimation based on country of origin segmentation and total expenditure comparisons do not provide sufficient detail, especially for mature destinations dominated by large single-country source markets. By employing different segmentation approaches along with Tourism Satellite Accounts and various yield estimates, this article estimates direct economic contribution for subsegments of the UK market on the Mediterranean island of Cyprus. Overall expenditure across segments varies greatly, as do the spending ratios in different categories. In the case of Cyprus, the most potential for improving economic contribution currently lies in increasing spending on “food and beverages” and “culture and recreation.” Mass tourism therefore appears to offer the best return per monetary unit spent. Conducting similar studies in other destinations could identify priority spending sectors and enable different segments to be targeted appropriately.

    Caiping Wang, Honggang Xu, Gang Li (2018)The corporate philanthropy and legitimacy strategy of tourism firms: a community perspective, In: Journal of Sustainable Tourism26(7)pp. 1124-1141 Taylor & Francis

    Corporate philanthropy (CP) is receiving increased attention, especially in transitional countries, such as China. Focusing on Chinese tourism attraction companies that operate on public tourism resources and have close relationships with their surrounding communities, this study investigates the factors driving firms’ CP behaviour from a community perspective. Hypotheses are developed under the legitimacy framework. Probit and tobit regression models are used with data gathered from listed tourism attraction companies in China between 2000 and 2015. Three main findings are obtained. First, tourism attraction companies engage in CP more actively than other companies in the tourism industry. Second, three community-related features are significant drivers of tourism attraction firms’ CP: unbalanced economic development, fierce business competition within the community and scarce educational resources. Third, the economic contribution of tourism partially moderates the associations between community features and tourism attraction firms’ CP. Further interviews with top managers of selected companies confirm the findings of the above statistical analysis. Both the theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed at the end of the paper.

    A Biran, W Liu, G Li, V Eichhorn (2014)Consuming post-disaster destinations: The case of Sichuan, China, In: Annals of Tourism Research47(1)pp. 1-17

    Addressing the call for a better understanding of tourist behavior in relation to post-disaster destinations, this study explores the motivations and intentions of potential domestic tourists (from non-hit areas) to visit Sichuan, China in the aftermath of an earthquake. Drawing on dark tourism theories, this study offers a more comprehensive insight into the consumption of post-disaster destinations, aiming to capture the impact of the changes to the destination’s attributes on tourist behavior. The findings move beyond the common approach to tourism recovery, which solely focuses on reviving the traditional ‘‘non-dark’’ products. This study reveals the importance of newly formed dark attributes that emerge from the disaster as another means to destination recovery, reflected in the emergence of new tourist segments.

    G Li (2009)Tourism Demand Modeling and Forecasting: A Review of Literature Related to Greater China, In: Journal of China Tourism Research5(1)pp. 2-40

    Greater China, including Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, contributes significantly to both regional and global tourism developments. Empirical research on tourism demand modeling and forecasting has attracted increasing attention of scholars both within and beyond this region. One hundred eighty articles are identified that were published in both English‐ and Chinese‐language journals since the beginning of the 1990s. This study presents the largest scale of literature survey on tourism demand studies. Furthermore, this is the first attempt in tourism demand review studies that focuses exclusively on one geographic region and covers bilingual literature. Particular emphasis of this review is placed on research development, geographic focus, data type and frequency, measurement of tourism demand, modeling and forecasting techniques, demand elasticity analysis, forecasting exercises, and emerging research trends. Comparisons between the two bodies of literature published in two languages show a number of research gaps, such as the diversity and sophistication of the research methodology, rigor of the modeling and forecasting process, and theoretical foundations of demand analysis. Correspondingly, constructive recommendations are made to further advance tourism demand studies related to Greater China.

    H Song, G Li (2008)Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research, In: Tourism Management29(2)pp. 203-220

    This paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000. One of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles. In addition to the most popular time-series and econometric models, a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature. However, as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned, the study shows that there is no single model that consistently outperforms other models in all situations. Furthermore, this study identifies some new research directions, which include improving the forecasting accuracy through forecast combination; integrating both qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches, tourism cycles and seasonality analysis, events' impact assessment and risk forecasting. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

    G Li, H Song, SF Witt (2005)Recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting, In: Journal of Travel Research44(1)pp. 82-99

    Eighty-four post-1990 empirical studies of international tourism demand modeling and forecasting using econometric approaches are reviewed. New developments are identified, and it is shown that applications of advanced econometric methods improve the understanding of international tourism demand. An examination of the 22 studies that compare forecasting performance suggests that no single forecasting method can outperform the alternatives in all cases. The time-varying parameter (TVP) model and structural time-series model with causal variables, however, perform consistently well. © 2005 Sage Publications.

    The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has negatively influenced the global tourism industry. Despite the documented negative impacts of diseases on tourism demand and people’s perceived health risk, researchers have seldom examined the psychological responses of tourists travelling during an infectious disease outbreak. We therefore conducted three studies to examine this key aspect, and our findings indicate that tourists have a strong negative emotional reaction towards disadvantaged tourism-related prices in response to a high (vs low) infectious disease threat. Furthermore, risk aversion acts as an underlying mechanism driving this effect: tourists are more risk aversive under the threat of an infectious disease, which consequently magnifies their negative emotional reaction. At last, theoretical and practical implications of these findings for tourism are discussed.

    Yitong Yu, Shi Tracy Xu, Gang Li, Da Shi (2020)Applications of the Experience Sampling Method: A Research Agenda for Hospitality Management, In: International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management Emerald

    Purpose – This study aims to provide researchers in hospitality management with a comprehensive understanding of the experience sampling method (ESM) and to engage them in the use of ESM in their future research. With this critical discussion of the advantages and challenges of the method, researchers can apply it appropriately to deepen and broaden their research findings. Design/methodology/approach – This study chooses an empirical example in the context of hotel employees’ surface acting, tiredness and sleep quality to illustrate the application of ESM. Based on the example, this paper conducts two-level modeling in Mplus, including a cross-level mediation analysis and mean centering. Findings – This paper demonstrates the applicability and usefulness of ESM for hospitality research and provides a detailed demonstration of how to use the statistical program Mplus to analyze ESM data. With this paper, researchers will be able to consider how to engage ESM in their future studies. Originality/value – This paper is among the first to provide a hands-on demonstration of ESM to hospitality researchers. We call for more research in hospitality management to use ESM to answer complex and pressing research questions.

    Richard T. R. Qiu, Lorenzo Masiero, Gang Li (2018)The psychological process of travel destination choice, In: Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing35(6)pp. 691-705 Taylor & Francis

    This paper reviews literature on travel destination choice and organizes these studies systematically. A “cell–system” structure is proposed to describe the psychological process of travel destination choice. When forming decisions on vacations, tourists gather information on potential destinations and evaluate visit intentions among potential destinations (“cell”). The visit intentions are successively compared while information is updated in the process (“system”). The “cell–system” structure provides a clear view of the psychological process of travel destination choice. Empirical studies based on the structure can provide further insights into why and how tourists choose travel destinations.

    This study examines the usefulness of the theory of transaction cost economics (TCE) for the online travel market and investigates customer satisfaction and loyalty with the transaction cost over the Internet taken into account. Using structural equation modelling (SEM), the authors identify the relationships among the antecedents (uncertainty, personal security and buying frequency), the mediating variable (transaction costs) and endogenous constructs (customer satisfaction and loyalty). The findings suggest that the satisfaction and loyalty of customers purchasing travel products over the Internet are affected negatively by transaction costs, which are determined by uncertainty, personal security and buying frequency. Moreover, a significantly negative relationship is identified between buying frequency and customer satisfaction.

    ANYU LIU, (2020)Ex-ante Tourism Forecasting Assessment, In: Journal of Travel Research Sage Publications

    Although numerous studies have focused on forecasting international tourism demand, minimal light has been shed on the factors influencing the accuracy of real-world ex-ante forecasting. This study evaluates the forecasting errors across various prediction horizons by analyzing the annually published forecasts of the Pacific Asia Tourism Association (PATA) from 2013 to 2017, comprising 765 origin-destination pairs covering 31 destinations in the region. The regression analysis shows that the variation in tourism demand and gross domestic product (GDP), covariation between tourism demand and GDP, order of lagged variables, origin, destination, and forecasting method all have significant effects on the forecasting accuracy over different horizons. This suggests that tourism forecasting should account for these factors in the future.

    Vera Shanshan Lin, Yang Yang, Gang Li (2018)Where can tourism-led growth and economy-driven tourism growth occur?, In: Journal of Travel Research, SAGE Publications

    In this study, we investigate the causal relationships between international tourism growth and regional economic expansion in China, and more importantly, disclose the factors determining the occurrence of these relationships. The empirical results reveal that 10 out of 29 regions experienced tourism-led growth (TLG) during 1978 to 2013, whereas nine regions experienced economic-driven tourism growth (EDTG). Different from the past literature, this study uses Bayesian probit models to unveil the factors influencing these different growth patterns. Our results suggest that regions with less-developed economies, larger economic sizes, and covering larger geographic areas are more likely to experience TLG, and regions with less-developed economies are more likely to experience EDTG as well. Lastly, practical implications are provided.

    H Song, L Dwyer, Gang Li, Zheng Cao (2012)Tourism Economics Research: A Review and Assessment, In: Annals of Tourism Research39(3)pp. 1653-1682 Elsevier

    This paper aims to provide the most up-to-date survey of tourism economics research and to summarise the key trends in its recent development. Particular attention is paid to the research progress made over the last decade in respect of approaches, methodological innovations, emerging topics, research gaps, and directions for future research. Remarkable but unbalanced developments have been observed across different sub-research areas in tourism economics. While neoclassical economics has contributed the most to the development of tourism economics, alternative schools of thought in economics have also emerged in advancing our understanding of tourism from different perspectives. As tourism studies are multi- and inter-disciplinary, integrating economics with other social science disciplines will further contribute to knowledge creation in tourism studies.

    Haiyan Song, Gang Li, Robert van der Veen, Jason L. Chen (2011)Assessing Mainland Chinese Tourists' Satisfaction with Hong Kong Using Tourist Satisfaction Index, In: International Journal of Tourism Research13(1)pp. 82-96 John Wiley & Sons

    The purpose of this study is to test a two-step tourist satisfaction index framework empirically. The first step estimates sectoral-level satisfaction indexes based on a structural equation model, and the second obtains an overall tourist satisfaction index by conducting second-order confirmatory factor analysis. This study is a pilot test of the theoretical framework based on three tourism-related service sectors in Hong Kong. The results indicate that mainland Chinese tourists are most satisfied with the hotel sector in Hong Kong, followed by the retail sector, and least satisfied with local tour operators. The aggregate tourist satisfaction index is 74.04 out of 100. The results of this study have important practical implications for long-term destination management.

    H Song, SF Witt, G Li (2003)Modelling and forecasting the demand for Thai tourism, In: Tourism Economics9(4)pp. 363-387

    This study examines the demand for Thai tourism by seven major origin countries – Australia, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, the UK and the USA. The general-to-specific modelling approach is followed in the construction, estimation, testing and selection of the tourism demand models. The empirical results show that habit persistence is the most important factor that influences the demand for Thai tourism by residents from all origin countries. The income, own price, cross price and trade volume variables are also found to be significant in the demand models, but the explanatory power of these variables, judged by the number of times they appear in the models, varies from origin to origin. The Asian financial crisis that occurred in late 1997 and early 1998 also appears to have had a significant impact on tourist arrivals from Singapore, Malaysia, Korea and the UK, but the magnitude and direction of influence are not the same for all models. The models that performed relatively well for each of the origin countries, according to both economic and statistical criteria, are selected to generate ex ante forecasts for the period up to 2010. The results suggest that Korea, Malaysia and Japan are expected to be the largest tourism generating countries by the end of the forecasting period, while the growth rate of tourist arrivals from Korea to Thailand is likely to be the highest among the seven origin countries.

    H Song, G Li, SF Witt, B Fei (2010)Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: How Should Demand Be Measured?, In: Tourism Economics16(1)pp. 63-81
    H Liu, JL Chen, Gang Li, C Goh (2016)Tourism and regional income inequality: Evidence from China, In: Annals of Tourism Research58pp. 81-99 Elsevier

    This study examines the role of tourism development in reducing regional income inequality in China. First, the theoretical foundation for how tourism affects regional income inequality is discussed. Second, based on the conditional convergence framework, this study proposes a spatiotemporal autoregressive model to capture spatial and temporal dependence as well as spatial heterogeneity. Tourism development is introduced as a conditional convergence factor in an attempt to examine whether the convergence speed is accelerated by regional tourism development. Third, the effects of international and domestic tourism in narrowing regional inequality are compared both globally and locally. The empirical results indicate that tourism development contributes significantly to the reduction of regional inequality, with domestic tourism making a greater contribution than international tourism.

    Vera Sanshan Lin, Yuan Qin, GANG LI, Jinsong Wu (2020)Determinants of Chinese households' tourism consumption: Evidence from China Family Panel Studies, In: International Journal of Tourism Research John Wiley & Sons Ltd

    Using survey data from the China Family Panel Studies project, this study explores factors influencing Chinese households' tourism consumption. The Heckman model is employed to decompose households' travel decision‐making process into two stages: first deciding whether to engage in travel and tourism and then determining the level of tourism consumption. We find that sociodemographic, economic, and psychological factors shape Chinese households' tourism consumption. Our results paint a vivid picture of Chinese households as travel consumers and offer valuable insight for governmental policymaking, tourism marketing strategy design, and business organizations' development planning.

    Tourist arrivals and tourist expenditure, in both aggregate and per capita forms, are commonly used measures Of tourism demand in empirical research. This study compares these two measures In the context of econometric modelling and the forecasting Of tourism demand. The empirical Study focuses on demand for Hong Kong tourism by residents of Australia, the UK and the USA. Using the general-to-specific modelling approach, key determinants Of tourism demand are identified based on different demand measures. In addition, the forecasting accuracy of these demand Measures is examined. It is found that tourist arrivals in Hong Kong are influenced mainly by tourists' income and 'word-of-month'/habit persistence effects, while the tourism price in Hong Kong relative to that of the tourist origin country is the most important determinant Of tourist expenditure in Hong Kong. Moreover, the aggregate tourism demand models Outperform the per capita models, with aggregate expenditure models being the most accurate. The implications of these Findings for tourism decision making are that the choice of demand measure for forecasting models Should depend on whether the objective of the decision maker is to maximize tourist arrivals or expenditure (receipts), and also that the models should be specified in aggregate form.

    Ke Zhang, Yuansi Hou, Gang Li, Yunhui Huang (2019)Tourists and Air Pollution: How and Why Air Pollution Magnifies Tourists’ Suspicion of Service Providers, In: Journal of Travel Research SAGE Publications

    Air pollution is becoming a serious socio-environmental problem in many modern societies and poses significant economic threats to popular tourism destinations. Despite the documented consequences of air pollution on tourism demand, studies have seldom examined its impact on individuals’ psychological states, especially in the tourism context. Through a correlational study and two experiments, our findings indicate that tourists are more likely to be suspicious of local service providers when travelers perceive a destination as having heavy air pollution (vs. one without such pollution). This relationship presumably exists because tourists experience greater pessimism in an environment with high air pollution, which in turn influences their evaluations of service providers. Following this logic, we show that the effect diminishes when tourists are cognizant of (and thus rely less on) their pessimistic feelings when evaluating service providers. Finally, we offer theoretical and practical implications of this effect in tourism.

    Caiping Wang, Gang Li, Honggang Xu (2018)Impact of lifestyle-oriented motivation on small tourism enterprises’ social responsibility and performance in historic towns, In: Journal of Travel Research SAGE Publications

    Lifestyle-oriented motivation (LOM) is the reason that the owners of many small enterprises start and operate businesses in the tourism industry. Using a sample of guesthouses in historic Chinese towns, this study examines how LOM affects these small businesses’ corporate social responsibility (CSR), performance, and owners’ intentions to sustain operations. Applying the structural equation modeling approach to a sample of 154 guesthouses, this study finds that LOM positively influences CSR, performance, and owners’ operational intentions. Specifically, LOM promotes each dimension of CSR activities (product, environment, community, employees, and heritage protection); however, it only increases firms’ subjective performance and has no significant influence on their objective performance. The mediating effects of CSR and performance on the path from LOM to owners’ operational intentions are also demonstrated. Lastly, the theoretical and managerial implications of the findings are discussed.

    Yuansi Hou, Ke Zhang, Gang Li (2021)Service robots or human staff: How social crowding shapes tourist preferences, In: Tourism management83 Elsevier Ltd

    Service providers in tourism and hospitality are beginning to welcome robots as a customer service option. Given this trend, it is important to explore the factors driving tourists' willingness to adopt such new technology. This study focuses on the role of crowding, an environmental factor widely observed in destinations susceptible to over-tourism, in shaping tourists' willingness to adopt service robots. Based on one survey and two experiments, the present research demonstrates that a destination which is more (vs. less) crowded generally motivates tourists to favor robot-provided services rather than those from human staff. Furthermore, findings reveal that this pattern manifests because more (vs. less) social crowding reduces tourists’ motivation to interact with others, as evidenced by social withdrawal tendency.

    H. Janta, C. Jephcote, A.M. Williams, G. Li (2019)“Returned Migrants Acquisition of Competences: the Contingencies of Space and Time”, In: Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies Taylor and Francis

    The conditions which determine the acquisition of skills by migrants are still poorly understood. This paper addresses two of those conditions: the temporality of the acquisition of competences, whether the number and duration of migrations matter, as well as the spatiality, or the variation across countries of origin and return. Based on a large-scale online panel survey of returned young migrants in nine European countries, the significance of time (duration) and space (number of migrations) in the acquisition of skills and competences are examined. The findings reveal that young European returnees’ experiences gained abroad result in largely positive outcomes but with significant differences between formal qualifications, language skills and personal and cultural competences. However, their acquisition of skills and competences is mediated by temporality – the combination of number of trips, and duration of migration. Spatiality is also important, with outcomes depending on the destination countries, and whether migration and return are from or to rural versus urban areas. These indicate that structural considerations continue to shape individual migration experiences within the EU’s freedom of movement space.

    Hengyun Li, Mingming Hu, Gang Li (2020)Forecasting tourism demand with multisource big data, In: Annals of Tourism Research83102912 Elsevier

    Based on internet big data from multiple sources (i.e., the Baidu search engine and two online review platforms, Ctrip and Qunar), this study forecasts tourist arrivals to Mount Siguniang, China. Key findings of this empirical study indicate that (a) tourism demand forecasting based on internet big data from a search engine and online review platforms can significantly improve forecasting performance; (b) compared with tourism demand forecasting based on single-source data from a search engine, demand forecasting based on multisource big data from a search engine and online review platforms demonstrates better performance; and (c) compared with tourism demand forecasting based on online review data from a single platform, forecasting performance based on multiple platforms is significantly better.

    G Athanasopoulos, M Deng, G Li, H Song (2014)Modelling substitution between domestic and outbound tourism in Australia: A system-of-equations approach, In: Tourism Management45pp. 159-170

    This study uses a system-of-equations approach to model the substitution relationship between Australian domestic and outbound tourism demand. A new price variable based on relative ratios of purchasing power parity index is developed for the substitution analysis. Short-run demand elasticities are calculated based on the estimated error correction almost ideal demand systems. The empirical results reveal significant substitution relationships between Australian domestic tourism and outbound travel to Asia, the UK and the US. This study provides scientific support for necessary policy considerations to promote domestic tourism further.

    X Bai, G Li (2004)Industrial Productivity Convergence in China, In: Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies2(2)pp. 155-168 Taylor & Francis

    This paper examines the convergence process of industrial productivity between Chinese regions. Both σ- and β-convergences are investigated using a panel data set of 30 provinces and autonomous regions over the period 1985–1999. Unconditional σ- and β-convergence methods fail to detect productivity convergence over the whole sample period, although they suggest convergence during a sub-period 1985–1990. The estimates of a human capital enhanced production function, with the constant return to scale constraint, show that productivity gaps between Chinese regions declined during 1985–1999 with a rate of convergence of around 1.3% per annum. Similar results are also found when the data are disaggregated into three broader geographic regions.

    Gang Li, Eden Jiao (2019)Tourism forecasting research: a perspective article, In: Tourism Review

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a short review of tourism forecasting literature and general summary of the trends and developments in tourism forecasting and point out directions for future research in the next 75 years. Design/methodology/approach – This is a general literature overview. Findings – Key trends are identified for next 75 years. Originality/value – First overview in tourism forecasting that provides foresight on long-term future trends (over next 75 years). Keywords: Tourism forecasting, Automated Paper type General review

    Gang Li, Doris Chenguang Wu, Menglin Zhou, Anyu Liu (2019)The combination of interval forecasts in tourism, In: Annals of Tourism Research75pp. 363-378 Elsevier Masson

    Combination is an effective way to improve tourism forecasting accuracy. However, empirical evidence is limited to point forecasts. Given that interval forecasts can provide more comprehensive information, it is important to consider both point and interval forecasts for decision-making. Using Hong Kong tourism demand as an empirical case, this study is the first to examine if and how the combination can improve interval forecasting accuracy for tourism demand. Winkler scores are employed to measure interval forecasting performance. Empirical results show that combination improves the accuracy of tourism interval forecasting for different forecasting horizons. The findings provide government and industry practitioners with guidelines for producing accurate interval forecasts that benefit their policy-making for a wide array of applications in practice.

    Gang Li, Doris Chenguang Wu (2019)Introduction to the special focus: Tourism forecasting – New trends and issues, In: Tourism Economics25(3)pp. pp 305-308 SAGE Publications

    Tourism forecasting is one of the longest standing areas in tourism economics research, with over half a century of history already. The development of tourism forecasting research responds and contributes to the industry practice. Accurate demand forecasts are the foundation of tourism-related business decisions on pricing and operation strategies, and for governments on infrastructure investment and tourism policymaking. In recent years, tourism forecasting has received more attention from industry practitioners. First, echoing the increasing numbers of international and domestic tourists, the tourism industry has continuously grown and become more dynamic. As a result, industry practitioners have hoped to understand the market and predict future trends more accurately and comprehensively. Second, in recent years, decision makers have realized the increasing importance of quantitative evidence and have become more likely to rely on or refer to it for their strategy and policy formulations. Finally, the development of big data based on Internet technology has made it possible for the industry to obtain more accurate forecasts. Data on online tourist behaviour can be traced and retrieved. With greater understanding of it, the industry can then use it to forecast future trends.

    Gang Li, Qiang Zhao, Chao-Hsi Chang (2008)Decays of J/ psi and psi-prime into vector and pseudoscalar meson and the pseudoscalar glueball-q anti-q mixing., In: Journal of Physics G: Nuclear and Particle Physics35(055002)
    S Shen, G Li, H Song (2009)Is the Time Varying Parameter Model Favourable for Tourism Demand Forecasting? Statistical Evidence, In: Advances in Tourism Economics: New Developmentspp. 107-120 Physica-Verlag
    DC Wu, G Li, H Song (2012)Economic Analysis of Tourism Consumption Dynamics: A Time-varying Parameter Demand System Approach, In: Annals of Tourism Research39(2)pp. 667-685

    This study considers the dynamics of the consumption behaviour of tourists from an economic perspective. The evolution of various demand elasticities is explored using a time-varying parameter almost ideal demand system model. The top four source markets for tourism in Hong Kong are examined, and three major tourist expenditure categories, including shopping, hotel accommodation and meals outside hotels, are investigated for each market. Elasticity analysis reveals different consumption trends and patterns across the source markets. The findings will serve as a useful reference for Hong Kong tourism-related industries and the government in their efforts to enhance the competitiveness of Hong Kong as an international tourism destination.

    G Li, H Song (2006)Quantitative Techniques for Tourism Competition Analysis, In: Corporate rivalry and market powerpp. 35-53 IB Tauris: London

    This work examines key competition issues in the areas of transport for tourism, the accommodation sector and the travel distribution, drawing examples and case ...

    Caiping Wang, Honggang Xu, Gang Li, Jason Li Chen (2018)Community social responsibility and the performance of small tourism enterprises: Moderating effects of entrepreneurs' demographics, In: International Journal of Tourism Research20(6)pp. 685-697 Wiley

    This study investigated the two main dimensions of STEs’ community social responsibility and their impact on firms’ objective and subjective performance, respectively. It also explored the moderating effects of STE owners’ demographics on the relationships between the two community social responsibility dimensions and firm performance. By the survey data from STEs in the historical towns in southwestern China, the empirical findings suggested that engaging in socially responsible behavior at the community level contributes to STEs’ subjective performance; and the influence of community engagement on STEs’ performance is moderated by the owners’ demographic characteristics, such as age, gender, ethnicity, and birthplace.

    Melville Saayman, Gang Li, Muzaffer Uysal, Haiyan Song (2018)Tourist satisfaction and subjective well-being: An index approach, In: International Journal of Tourism Research20(3)pp. 388-399 Wiley

    The purpose of this research is to propose an index approach to study the impact of travel experience on tourists' satisfaction and the further impact on their sense of well‐being. Based on the latest development of tourist satisfaction research, that is, the tourist satisfaction indices, this innovative study further extends the two‐stage framework of tourist travel experiences to account for subjective well‐being and subsequently calculates a tourist well‐being index. A questionnaire with 496 respondents was used, which focused on four service sectors' tourist satisfaction indices. From this, a destination overall tourist satisfaction index and a tourist well‐being index were produced using the results of structural equation modelling. Some key findings include the higher the impact of the trip on tourist's sense of well‐being the higher the loyalty towards the destination. Different cultures had different results concerning the trip experiences (satisfaction) and the impact of the latter on their subjective well‐being. Group travellers also had a significantly more positive experience compared with solo travellers. A new innovative indices system capturing tourist satisfaction and its causes and outcomes, in particular its impact on tourist's subjective well‐being, was developed. This research therefore extends work done on the impact of tourist experience and quality of life/subjective well‐being.

    Zheng Cao, Gang Li, Haiyan Song (2017)Modelling the interdependence of tourism demand: The global vector autoregressive approach, In: Annals of Tourism Research67pp. 1-13 Elsevier Masson

    This study develops a global vector autoregressive (global VAR or GVAR) model to quantify the cross-country co-movements of tourism demand and simulate the impulse responses of shocks to the Chinese economy. The GVAR model overcomes the endogeneity and over-parameterisation issues found in many tourism demand models. The results show the size of co-movements in tourism demand across 24 major countries in different regions. In the event of negative shocks to China’s real income and China’s tourism price variable, almost all of these countries would face fluctuations in their international tourism demand and in their tourism prices in the short run. In the long run, developing countries and China’s neighbouring countries would tend to be more negatively affected than developed countries.

    G Li, H Song, SF Witt (2006)Forecasting Tourism Demand Using Econometric Models, In: Tourism management dynamics: Trends, Management and Toolspp. 219-228 Butterworth-Heinemann: Oxford

    As the global tourism industry continues to expand and to become more complex, it is vital that those in the industry identify trends early and design proactive ...

    G Li, H Song, SF Witt (2005)Recent Development in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting, In: Journal of Travel Research44(1)pp. 82-99

    Eighty-four post-1990 empirical studies of international tourism demand modeling and forecasting using econometric approaches are reviewed. New developments are identified, and it is shown that applications of advanced econometric methods improve the understanding of international tourism demand. An examination of the 22 studies that compare forecasting performance suggests that no single forecasting method can outperform the alternatives in all cases. The time-varying parameter (TVP) model and structural time-series model with causal variables, however, perform consistently well.

    JL Chen, G Li, H Song (2016)Managing tourist satisfaction: An index approach, In: Management Science in Hospitality and Tourism: Theory, Practice and Applications Apple Academic Press
    A. George Assaf, Gang Li, Haiyan Song, Mike G. Tsionas (2018)Modeling and Forecasting Regional Tourism Demand Using the Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressive (BGVAR) Model, In: Journal of Travel Research SAGE Publications

    Increasing levels of global and regional integration have led to tourist flows between countries becoming closely linked. These links should be considered when modeling and forecasting international tourism demand within a region. This study introduces a comprehensive and accurate systematic approach to tourism demand analysis, based on a Bayesian global vector autoregressive (BGVAR) model. An empirical study of international tourist flows in nine countries in Southeast Asia demonstrates the ability of the BGVAR model to capture the spillover effects of international tourism demand in this region. The study provides clear evidence that the BGVAR model consistently outperforms three other alternative VAR model versions throughout one- to four-quarters-ahead forecasting horizons. The potential of the BGVAR model in future applications is demonstrated by its superiority in both modeling and forecasting tourism demand.

    G Li, H Song, SF Witt (2004)Modeling tourism demand: A dynamic linear AIDS approach, In: Journal of Travel Research43(2)pp. 141-150

    The linear almost ideal demand system (LAIDS), in both static and dynamic forms, is examined in the context of international tourism demand. The superiority of the dynamic error correction LAIDS compared to its static counterpart is demonstrated in terms of both the acceptability of theoretical restrictions and forecasting accuracy, using a data set on the expenditure of United Kingdom tourists in twenty-two Western European countries. Both long-run and short-run demand elasticites are calculated. The expenditure elasticities show that travelling to most major destinations in Western Europe appears to be a luxury for UK tourists in the long run. The demand for travel to these destinations by UK tourists is also likely to be more price elastic in the long run than in the short run. The calculated cross-price elasticites suggest that the substitution/complementarity effects vary from destination to destination.

    G Li (2012)Statistical Testing Techniques, In: Handbook of Research Methods in Tourism(1)pp. 13-30 Edward Elgar Publishing
    G Li, H Song (2006)New Forecasting Models, In: Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing21(4)pp. 3-13

    Tourism forecasting plays an important role in tourism planning and management. Various forecasting techniques have been developed and applied to the tourism context, amongst which econometric forecasting has been winning an increasing popularity in tourism research. This paper therefore aims to introduce the latest developments of econometric forecasting approaches and their applications to tourism demand analysis. Particular emphases are placed on the time varying parameter (TVP) forecasting technique and its application to the almost ideal demand system (AIDS). The discussions in this paper fall into two main parts, in line with the two broad categories of econometric forecasting approaches: the first part refers to the single-equation forecasting techniques, focusing particularly on both long-run and short-term TVP models. The second part introduces the system-of-equations forecasting models, represented by the AIDS and its dynamic versions including the combination with the TVP technique, will be discussed one by one following the order of methodological developments.

    T Lorde, G Li, D Airey (2015)Modeling Caribbean Tourism Demand: An Augmented Gravity Approach, In: Journal of Travel Research

    This study uses a gravity framework to model tourism demand for the Caribbean. The basic model is augmented by Linder’s hypothesis—tourist flows are partly determined by the similarity in preferences between the destination and source markets—and climate distance, which measures the gap between climate conditions in origin and destination countries. The results indicate that traditional gravity variables are significant in explaining demand for the region. Habit persistence has the largest impact on demand, a result that holds promise for regional policy makers. Evidence is also unearthed that similarity in preferences between the region and its source markets, as well as climate distance, are important demand determinants.

    Y Wang, G Li, X Bai (2005)A residential survey on urban tourism impacts in Harbin, In: China Tourism Research1(1)pp. 116-129

    Tourism is becoming more and more important in the global economy, and its longterm prosperity is desired by every tourism destination. Prosperity, however, cannot be achieved successfully without the involvement of those influenced by the industry, so, evaluating residents’ perceptions of tourism and involving them in as many aspects of planning and policymaking as possible are important steps in creating sustainability in tourism destination development. In attempting to fill in the research gaps in social impact analysis of urban tourism development in the Chinese context, a face-to-face survey was carried out to explore residents’ perceived impacts of tourism development in Harbin, a famous tourist destination in north-eastern China. The findings of this survey suggest that residents’ reaction towards local tourism development varies between different interest groups. Age, income and personal connections with local tourism were found to influence residents’ perceptions to some extent.

    H Song, SF Witt, G Li (2009)The Advanced Econometrics of Tourism Demand Routledge: London
    Haiyan Song, Gang Li, Zheng Cao (2017)Tourism and Economic Globalization: An Emerging Research Agenda, In: Journal of Travel Research57(8)pp. 999-1011 SAGE Publications

    Globalization characterizes the economic, social, political, and cultural spheres of the modern world. Tourism has long been claimed as a crucial force shaping globalization, while in turn the developments of the tourism sector are under the influences of growing interdependence across the world. As globalization proceeds, destination countries have become more and more susceptible to local and global events. By linking the existing literature coherently, this study explores a number of themes on economic globalization in tourism. It attempts to identify the forces underpinning globalization and assess the implications on both the supply side and the demand side of the tourism sector. In view of a lack of quantitative evidence, future directions for empirical research have been suggested to investigate the interdependence of tourism demand, the convergence of tourism productivity, and the impact of global events.

    Haiyan Song, Gang Li (2008)Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting, In: Tourism Management29(2)

    This paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000. One of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles. In addition to the most popular time series and econometric models, a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature. However, as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned, the study shows that there is no single model that consistently outperforms other models in all situations. Furthermore, this study identifies some new research directions, which include improving the forecasting accuracy through forecast combination; integrating both qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches, tourism cycles and seasonality analysis, events’ impact assessment and risk forecasting.

    G Li (2008)The Nature of Leisure Travel Demand, In: Aviation and Tourism: Implications for Leisure Travelpp. 7-20 Ashgate: Aldershot
    H Song, G Li, SF Witt, G Athanasopoulos (2011)Forecasting Tourist Arrivals Using Time-Varying Parameter Structural Time Series Models, In: International Journal of Forecasting27(3)pp. 855-869 Elsevier
    S Shen, G Li, H Song (2011)Combination forecasts of International tourism demand, In: Annals of Tourism Research38(1)pp. 72-89
    Li Chen, Gang Li, DC Wu, S Shen (2017)Forecasting Seasonal Tourism Demand Using a Multi-Series Structural Time Series Method, In: Journal of Travel Research58(1)pp. 92-103 Sage

    Multivariate forecasting methods are intuitively appealing since they are able to capture the inter-series dependencies, and therefore may forecast more accurately. This study proposes a multi-series structural time series method based on a novel data restacking technique as an alternative approach to seasonal tourism demand forecasting. The proposed approach is analogous to the multivariate method but only requires one variable. In this study, a quarterly tourism demand series is split into four component series, each component representing the demand in a particular quarter of each year; the component series are then restacked to build a multi-series structural time-series model. Empirical evidence from Hong Kong inbound tourism demand forecasting shows that the newly proposed approach improves the forecast accuracy, compared with traditional univariate models.

    Gang Li, H Song, Zheng Cao, DC Wu (2013)How competitive is Hong Kong against its competitors? An econometric study, In: Tourism Management36(1)pp. 247-256 Elsevier

    This study utilizes almost ideal demand system (AIDS) models to examine Hong Kong’s competitiveness as an international tourist destination in comparison with its competitors. The empirical findings of the study shed new light on the destination competitiveness literature and demonstrate that a destination’s competitiveness should be examined from a market-specific perspective. The results also suggest that Hong Kong is more competitive than Macau, particularly in terms of its ability to attract Australian and mainland Chinese tourists, while price elasticity calculations suggest Singapore and South Korea are more competitive than Hong Kong.

    L Chen, G li, L Zhang, R Hu (2015)Market trends and forecast of Chinese outbound tourism, In: Chinese Outbound Tourism 2.0(23) Apple Academic Press

    Most tourism programs today have an international component in their curriculum, usually including a global tourism class. This book serves as an excellent supplemental reading for students in these classes.

    S Shen, G Li, H Song (2008)An Assessment of Combining Tourism Demand Forecasts over Different Time Horizons, In: Journal of Travel Research47(2)pp. 197-207

    This study investigates the performance of combination forecasts in comparison to individual forecasts. The empirical study focuses on the UK outbound leisure tourism demand for the USA. The combination forecasts are based on the competing forecasts generated from seven individual forecasting techniques. The three combination methods examined in this study are: the simple average combination method, the variance-covariance combination method and the discounted mean square forecast error method. The empirical results suggest that combination forecasts overall play an important role in the improvement of forecasting accuracy in that they are superior to the best of the individual forecasts over different forecasting horizons. The variance-covariance combination method turns out to be the best among the three combination methods. Another finding of this study is that the encompassing test does not contribute significantly to the improved accuracy of combination forecasts. This study provides robust evidence of the efficiency of combination forecasts.

    Xiaoying Jiao, Gang Li, Jason Li Chen (2020)Forecasting international tourism demand: a local spatiotemporal model, In: Annals of Tourism Research83102937 Elsevier

    This study investigates whether tourism forecasting accuracy is improved by incorporating spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. One- to three-step-ahead forecasts of tourist arrivals were generated using global and local spatiotemporal autoregressive models for 37 European countries and the forecasting performance was compared with that of benchmark models including autoregressive moving average, exponential smoothing and Naïve 1 models. For all forecasting horizons, the two spatial models outperformed the non-spatial models. The superior forecasting performance of the local model suggests that the full reflection of spatial heterogeneity can improve the accuracy of tourism forecasting.

    H Song, G Li, R van der Veen, JL Chen (2009)Assessing mainland Chinese tourists’ satisfaction with Hong Kong using the Tourist Satisfaction Index, In: Marketing Innovations for Sustainable Destinationspp. 113-122 Goodfellow Pub Ltd
    Gang Li, Qiang Zhao, Bing-Song Zou (2008)Isospin violation in phi, J/psi, psi[prime]-->omegapi0 via hadronic loops, In: Physical Review D77(014010)

    In this work, we study the isospin-violating decay of phi-->omegapi0 and quantify the electromagnetic (EM) transitions and intermediate meson exchanges as two major sources of the decay mechanisms. In the EM decays, the present datum status allows a good constraint on the EM decay form factor in the vector meson dominance model, and it turns out that the EM transition can only account for about 1/4~1/3 of the branching ratio for phi-->omegapi0. The intermediate meson exchanges, K[overline K](K*) (intermediate K[overline K] interaction via K* exchanges), K[overline K]*(K) (intermediate K[overline K]* rescattering via kaon exchanges), and K[overline K]*(K*) (intermediate K[overline K]* rescattering via K* exchanges), which evade the naive Okubo-Zweig-Iizuka rule, serve as another important contribution to the isospin violations. They are evaluated with effective Lagrangians where explicit constraints from experiment can be applied. Combining these three contributions, we obtain results in good agreement with the experimental data. This approach is also extended to J/psi(psi[prime])-->omegapi0, where we find contributions from the K[overline K](K*), K[overline K]*(K), and K[overline K]*(K*) loops are negligibly small, and the isospin violation is likely to be dominated by the EM transition.

    Yitong Yu, Shi (Tracy) Xu, Gang Li, Haiyan Kong (2020)Systematic Review of Research on Abusive Supervision in Hospitality, In: International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management Emerald

    Purpose: This paper aims to provide researchers and practitioners with an understanding of abusive supervision in the context of hospitality. It seeks to conduct a comprehensive review of the area and offer recommendations for future research by exploring the antecedents, consequences, mechanisms, and designs of research on abusive supervision. Design/methodology/approach: Content analysis was conducted to review and analyze studies on abusive supervision in the context of hospitality. Previous studies were searched in the EBSCO, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar electronic databases. Findings: Thirty-six referred articles related to abusive supervision in hospitality were reviewed across four key areas, namely, antecedents, consequences, mechanisms, and research design. After reviewing the research on abusive supervision in the context of hospitality, this paper offers future research directions with respect to research focus and research design. Research limitations/implications: This paper only included English articles from peer-reviewed journals on abusive supervision. The number of reviewed articles was relatively small. This limitation may have arisen because abusive supervision is a new research field and is still a sensitive topic. Practical implications: The results of this work may encourage managers to minimize or even halt abusive supervision. From an organizational perspective, formal policies may be developed to regularize supervisors’ behavior. In turn, employees could use this paper to learn further about abusive behavior and how to handle it effectively. Social implications: The review highlighted the negative consequences of abusive supervision. Managers should urgently realize the seriousness of abusive supervision and develop effective policies to minimize its negative effect. Originality/value: This paper contributes to the emerging literature on abusive supervision in the context of hospitality by identifying key research trends and framing the outlines of empirical studies. It identifies research gaps, and as the first review of abusive supervision in hospitality, it may encourage researchers to explore the topic on the basis of the characteristics of the sector and offer suggestions for future research.

    K Chon, G Li, S Lin, Z Gao (2010)Recovery of Tourism Demand in Hong Kong from the Global Financial and Economic Crisis, In: Journal of China Tourism Research6(3)pp. 259-278

    This study aims to predict the recovery of the Hong Kong tourism industry from the current global financial and economic crisis. Based on the latest statistics available, this study provides updated forecasts of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong from 10 key source markets over the period 2010-2015. The forecasts include annual and quarterly forecasts of tourist arrivals and the market shares of the source markets concerned. An econometric method is used to estimate the demand elasticities as well as their confidence intervals, followed by the interval demand predictions. The total tourist arrivals to Hong Kong are projected to reach 53.8 million by 2015 with the interval forecasts between 38.4 and 74.4 million, representing an annual growth of 10.48% on average against 2009, with an interval ranging from 4.44% to 16.60%. As far as individual source markets are concerned, their demand recovery takes varying paces. Overall, tourism demand in Hong Kong is relatively resilient to the global financial and economic crisis.

    G Li, H Song, SF Witt (2006)Time Varying Parameter and Fixed Parameter Linear AIDS: An Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting, In: International Journal of Forecasting22(1)pp. 57-71

    This study develops time varying parameter (TVP) linear almost ideal demand system (LAIDS) models in both long-run (LR) static and short-run error correction (EC) forms. The superiority of TVP-LAIDS models over the original static version and the fixed-parameter EC counterparts is examined in an empirical study of modelling and forecasting the demand for tourism in Western European destinations by UK residents. Both the long-run static and the short-run EC-LAIDS models are estimated using the Kalman filter algorithm. The evolution of demand elasticities over time is illustrated using the Kalman filter estimation results. The remarkably improved forecasting performance of the TVP-LAIDS relative to the fixed-parameter LAIDS is illustrated by a one-year- to four-years-ahead forecasting performance assessment. Both the unrestricted TVP-LR-LAIDS and TVP-EC-LAIDS outperform the fixed-parameter counterparts in the overall evaluation of demand level forecasts, and the TVP-EC-LAIDS is also ranked ahead of most other competitors when demand changes are concerned.

    G Li, H Song (2007)New Forecasting Models, In: Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing21(4)pp. 3-13
    G Li, H Song, SF Witt (2005)Time Varying Parameter and Fixed Parameter Linear AIDS: An Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting, In: International Journal of Forecasting22(1)pp. 57-71

    This study develops time varying parameter (TVP) linear almost ideal demand system (LAIDS) models in both long-run (LR) static and short-run error correction (EC) forms. The superiority of TVP-LAIDS models over the original static version and the fixed-parameter EC counterparts is examined in an empirical study of modelling and forecasting the demand for tourism in Western European destinations by UK residents. Both the long-run static and the short-run EC-LAIDS models are estimated using the Kalman filter algorithm. The evolution of demand elasticities over time is illustrated using the Kalman filter estimation results. The remarkably improved forecasting performance of the TVP-LAIDS relative to the fixed-parameter LAIDS is illustrated by a one-year- to four-years-ahead forecasting performance assessment. Both the unrestricted TVP-LR-LAIDS and TVP-EC-LAIDS outperform their fixed-parameter counterparts in the overall evaluation of demand level forecasts, and the TVP-EC-LAIDS is also ranked ahead of most other competitors when demand changes are concerned. (c) 2005 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

    Allan Williams, Calvin Jephote, Hanna Janta, Gang Li (2017)The Migration Intentions of Young Adults in Europe: A Comparative, Multi-Level Analysis, In: Population, Space and Place24(1) Wiley

    Research on migration intentions is relatively fragmented, traditionally drawing conclusions from relatively small survey samples, focussing on individual countries, or relying on public opinion polls which provide very few explanatory variables. This paper addresses these limitations by developing a multi-level model of an extensive range of macro, meso and micro determinants of migration intentions across different time frames. The paper utilises an online panel survey of 20,473 non-student respondents aged 16-35 from 9 EU countries. Ordinal multi-level modelling, with post-stratification weighting, is used to determine the key drivers of, and barriers to, migration intentions in both a pan-European model, and nine separate national-scale models. The findings confirm the significance of macro, meso and micro factors. While socio-economic factors emerge as powerful explanatory factors, non-pecuniary factors are also important, including sensation seeking. There are broad similarities in the findings across the separate national-level models, but also differences in the relative importance of socio-economic, gender, and personality factors. Migration intentions were highly dependent on the decision-making time frame: 17 per cent of respondents over one year, but 30 per cent over five years, are likely to migrate or to have made firm plans to migrate. The rank ordering of the countries challenges the notion of there being a simple differentiation between the newer and older member states of EU.

    G Li, H Song, SF Witt (2004)Modeling tourism demand: A dynamic linear AIDS approach, In: Journal of Travel Research43(2)pp. 141-150

    The linear almost ideal demand system (LAIDS), in both static and dynamic forms, is examined in the context of international tourism demand. The superiority of the dynamic error correction LAIDS compared to its static counterpart is demonstrated in terms of both the acceptability of theoretical restrictions and forecasting accuracy, using a data set on the expenditure of United Kingdom tourists in twenty-two Western European countries. Both long-run and short-run demand elasticites are calculated. The expenditure elasticities show that travelling to most major destinations in Western Europe appears to be a luxury for UK tourists in the long run. The demand for travel to these destinations by UK tourists is also likely to be more price elastic in the long run than in the short run. The calculated cross-price elasticites suggest that the substitution/complementarity effects vary from destination to destination.

    G Li, H Song, SF Witt (2017)Modelling and Forecasting Demand for Thai Tourism, In: Advances in Hospitality and Tourism Research: Proceedings of the conference8pp. 393-396
    G Li, KKF Wong, H Song, SF Witt (2006)Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Time Varying Parameter Error Correction Model, In: Journal of Travel Research45(2)pp. 175-185

    The advantages of error correction models (ECMs) and time varying parameter (TVP) models have been discussed in the tourism forecasting literature. These models are now combined to give a new single-equation model, the time varying parameter error correction model (TVP-ECM), which is applied for the first time in the context of tourism demand forecasting. The empirical study focuses on tourism demand, measured by tourism spending per capita, by UK residents for 5 key Western European destinations. Based on the discussion of how the series considered related to most, the empirical results show that the TVP-ECM can be expected to outperform a number of alternative econometric and time series models in forecasting the demand for tourism. By measuring performance in terms of the accuracy of the forecasts of growth (rates of change) and showing that TVP-ECM performs very well for this as well as conventional assessment of the level of demand in this study, it is suggested that forecasters of tourism demand levels and growth rates can feel comfortable using TVP-ECM given that it is expected to perform well.

    G Li, KKF Wong, H Song, SF Witt (2006)Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Time Varying Parameter Error Correction Model, In: Journal of Travel Research45(2)pp. 175-185

    The advantages of error correction models (ECMs) and time varying parameter (TVP) models have been discussed in the tourism forecasting literature. These models are now combined to give a new single-equation model, the time varying parameter error correction model (TVP-ECM), which is applied for the first time in the context of tourism demand forecasting. The empirical study focuses on tourism demand, measured by tourism spending per capita, by UK residents for 5 key Western European destinations. Based on the discussion of how the series considered related to most, the empirical results show that the TVP-ECM can be expected to outperform a number of alternative econometric and time series models in forecasting the demand for tourism. By measuring performance in terms of the accuracy of the forecasts of growth (rates of change) and showing that TVP-ECM performs very well for this as well as conventional assessment of the level of demand in this study, it is suggested that forecasters of tourism demand levels and growth rates can feel comfortable using TVP-ECM given that it is expected to perform well.

    H Song, E Smeral, G Li, JL Chen (2012)Tourism Forecasting Using Econometric Models, In: European Tourism Planning and Organisation Systems(21) Channel View Publications
    H Song, R van der Veen, G Li, JL Chen (2012)Hong Kong Tourist Satisfaction Index, In: Annals of Tourism Research39(1)pp. 459-479

    This study develops a tourist satisfaction assessment system based on a dual-model framework and demonstrates its general applicability. The first model concerns tourist satisfaction and its key antecedents and consequences. Structural equation modelling is employed to investigate the relationships amongst the constructs in the theoretical framework, and is then used as a basis for the computation of sectoral-level tourist satisfaction indexes. The second model is designed to estimate an aggregate service satisfaction index and an overall destination satisfaction index using a multiple indicator and multiple cause approach. The framework is applied to a large dataset that represents six tourism-related sectors and seven major source markets of inbound tourism to Hong Kong.